Simulation of the DPC 2020-2021

dpc_simulation_2020_2021.py

import random

def g(a, b):
    _ = [a, b]
    random.shuffle(_)
    return _

def apply_major(points, regions):
    playoffs, groups, wc = [], [], []
    for region in regions:
        playoffs.append(region[0])
        groups.append(region[1])
        if len(region) > 2:
            wc.extend(region[2:])

    random.shuffle(wc)
    groups.extend(wc[:2])
    random.shuffle(groups)
    random.shuffle(playoffs)
    
    upper, lower = playoffs + groups[:2], groups[2:6]
    
    ub_1_1 = g(upper[0], upper[7])
    ub_1_2 = g(upper[3], upper[4])
    ub_1_3 = g(upper[1], upper[6])
    ub_1_4 = g(upper[2], upper[5])

    ub_2_1 = g(ub_1_1[0], ub_1_2[0])
    ub_2_2 = g(ub_1_3[0], ub_1_4[0])

    ub_fin = g(ub_2_1[0], ub_2_2[0])

    lb_1_1 = g(lower[0], ub_1_4[1])
    lb_1_2 = g(lower[1], ub_1_3[1])
    lb_1_3 = g(lower[2], ub_1_2[1])
    lb_1_4 = g(lower[3], ub_1_1[1])

    lb_2_1 = g(lb_1_1[0], lb_1_2[0])
    lb_2_2 = g(lb_1_3[0], lb_1_4[0])

    lb_3_1 = g(lb_2_1[0], ub_2_2[1])
    lb_3_2 = g(lb_2_2[0], ub_2_1[1])

    lb_4_1 = g(lb_3_1[0], lb_3_2[0])
    lb_fin = g(lb_4_1[0], ub_fin[1])

    gf = g(ub_fin[0], lb_fin[0])

    places = [gf[0], gf[1], lb_fin[1], lb_4_1[1], lb_3_1[1], lb_3_2[1], lb_2_1[1], lb_2_2[1]]

    for idx, t in enumerate(places):
        points[t] = points[t] + [500, 450, 400, 350, 300, 300, 200, 200][idx]

    return points

def apply_league(pts, num_qual, teams):
    random.shuffle(teams)
    for idx, t in enumerate(teams):
        pts[t] = pts[t] + [500, 300, 200, 100, 50, 0, 0, 0][idx]
    return teams[:num_qual]

def sim():
    points = {
        'IG': 1000,
        'EG': 950,
        'Secret': 850,
        'VP': 700,
        'Neon': 600,
        'Thunder Predator': 600,
        'beastcoast': 500,
        'LGD': 500,
        'Fnatic': 425,
        'Vici': 400,
        'Alliance': 300,
        'Quincy Crew': 300,
        'Aster': 300,
        'NaVi': 255,
        'Nigma': 200,
        'Undying': 200,
        'Gambit': 170,
        'SG': 170, 
        'T1': 170,
        '4Z': 100,
        'Liquid': 100,
        'NoPing': 85,
        'Spirit': 85,
        'TNC': 72.25,
        'Elephant': 50,
        'EXTREMUM': 50,
        'OG': 42.5,
        'BOOM': 42.5,
        'SADBOYS': 30.70625,
        'Unknown': 30.70625,
        'Tundra': 0,
        'Hellbears': 0, 
        'Brame': 0,
        'EHOME': 0,
        'SAG': 0, 
        'RNG': 0,
        'Execration': 0,
        'Lilgun': 0, 
        'Omega Esports': 0,
        'Unique': 0,
        'PuckChamp': 0, 
        'Winstrike': 0,
        'BNY': 0,
        'TooBase': 0, 
        'The Cut': 0,
        'Infamous': 0, 
        'Infinity': 0, 
        'Hokori': 0
    }

    return apply_major(points, [
        apply_league(points, 4, ['IG', 'LGD', 'Vici', 'Aster', 'Elephant', 'EHOME', 'SAG', 'RNG']), # China
        apply_league(points, 4, ['Secret', 'Alliance', 'Nigma', 'Liquid', 'OG', 'Tundra', 'Hellbears', 'Brame']), # EU
        apply_league(points, 3, ['VP', 'NaVi', 'Gambit', 'Spirit', 'EXTREMUM', 'Unique', 'PuckChamp', 'Winstrike']), # CIS
        apply_league(points, 3, ['Neon', 'Fnatic', 'T1', 'TNC', 'BOOM', 'Execration', 'Lilgun', 'Omega Esports']), # SEA
        apply_league(points, 2, ['Thunder Predator', 'beastcoast', 'SG', 'NoPing', 'Unknown', 'Infamous', 'Infinity', 'Hokori']), # SA
        apply_league(points, 2, ['EG', 'Quincy Crew', 'Undying', '4Z', 'SADBOYS', 'BNY', 'TooBase', 'The Cut']), # NA
    ])

N = 10**7
tb = 0.
mean = 0
qualified = {}
thresfreq = {}
for i in range(N):
    p = sim()
    std_points = sorted(p.items(), key=lambda x: -x[1])
    threshold = std_points[11][1]

    qualified_teams = [t[0] for t in std_points if t[1] >= threshold]
    for t in qualified_teams:
        qualified[t] = 1 + qualified.get(t, 0)

    thresfreq[threshold] = 1 + thresfreq.get(threshold, 0)

    if len(qualified_teams) != 12:
        tb += 1

print("team,qualified")
for t, count in sorted(qualified.items(), key=lambda x: -x[1]):
    print("{},{}".format(t, count))

print()
print("threshold,count")
for thres, count in sorted(thresfreq.items(), key=lambda x: x[0]):
    print("{},{}".format(thres, count))

print()
print("tiebreakers: {}".format(tb))