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# An estimate of the value of information of Metaculus questions.
## Libraries
library(ggplot2)
library(viridis)
library(ggsci)
library(ggthemes)
## Data
data <- NULL
## data <- read.table(file = 'results.tsv', sep = '\t', header = TRUE)
data <- read.csv("results3.csv", header=TRUE)
### View(data)
colnames(data)
getwd()
dim(data)
## Value
### Must be before any manipulations
data$value = data$scope * data$forecasting_fit * data$decision_relevance
## Helpers
save=TRUE## FALSE
saveImage = function(fileName){
height = 4
width = floor(height*(1+sqrt(5))/2)
if(save){
ggsave(paste(fileName, ".png", sep=""), width=width, height=height)
}
}
## scope
## Data processing
data$scope = ifelse(data$scope > 0.5, data$scope, 0) ## ifelse(data$scope > 0.5, data$scope+1, data$scope*2) ##
scopeLabels = c("Hyperlocal", "Local", "Provincial", "National", "Regional", "Global")
### Simple plot
ggplot(data, aes(scope)) +
geom_bar()+
scale_x_continuous(breaks = c(0:5), labels = scopeLabels)
## Complex plot
title_text = "scope of a sample of Metaculus questions"
subtitle_text = ""
label_x_axis = "scope level"
label_y_axis = "Count"
ggplot(data, aes(scope)) +
geom_bar(fill="darkblue")+
scale_x_continuous(breaks = c(0:5), labels = scopeLabels)+
theme_tufte() +
labs(
title=title_text,
subtitle=subtitle_text,
x=label_x_axis,
y=label_y_axis
) +
theme(
legend.title = element_blank(),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
legend.position="bottom",
legend.box="vertical",
axis.text.x=element_text(angle=60, hjust=1)
)
saveImage("metaculus-scope")
## Decision-relevance
### Processing
data$decision_relevance = ifelse(data$decision_relevance < 5, data$decision_relevance, 4)
data$decision_relevance = ifelse(data$decision_relevance > 0.5, data$decision_relevance, 0) ## ifelse(data$scope > 0.5, data$scope+1, data$scope*2) ##
decisionRelevanceLabels = c("Remote", "Very indirect", "Indirect", "Nearly direct", "Direct")
### Simple plot
ggplot(data, aes(decision_relevance)) +
geom_bar()+
scale_x_continuous(breaks = c(0:4), labels = decisionRelevanceLabels)
## Complex plot
title_text = "Decision-relevance of a sample of Metaculus questions"
subtitle_text = ""
label_x_axis = "Decision-relevance level"
label_y_axis = "Count"
ggplot(data, aes(decision_relevance)) +
geom_bar(fill="darkblue")+
scale_x_continuous(breaks = c(0:4), labels = decisionRelevanceLabels)+
theme_tufte() +
labs(
title=title_text,
subtitle=subtitle_text,
x=label_x_axis,
y=label_y_axis
) +
theme(
legend.title = element_blank(),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
legend.position="bottom",
legend.box="vertical",
axis.text.x=element_text(angle=60, hjust=1)
)
saveImage("metaculus-decision-relevance")
## Forecasting fit
### Processing
data$forecasting_fit = ifelse(data$forecasting_fit > 0.5, data$forecasting_fit, 1) ## ifelse(data$scope > 0.5, data$scope+1, data$scope*2) ##
forecastingFitLabels = c("Terrible", "Not very good", "Good", "Very good")
### Simple plot
ggplot(data, aes(forecasting_fit)) +
geom_bar()
### Complex plot
title_text = "Forecasting fit of a sample of Metaculus questions"
subtitle_text = ""
label_x_axis = "Forecasting fit level"
label_y_axis = "Count"
ggplot(data, aes(forecasting_fit)) +
geom_bar(fill="darkblue")+
scale_x_continuous(breaks = c(1:4), labels = forecastingFitLabels)+
theme_tufte() +
labs(
title=title_text,
subtitle=subtitle_text,
x=label_x_axis,
y=label_y_axis
) +
theme(
legend.title = element_blank(),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
legend.position="bottom",
legend.box="vertical",
axis.text.x=element_text(angle=60, hjust=1)
)
saveImage("metaculus-forecasting-fit")
## Total importance
### Processing
colnames(data)
View(na.omit(data[data$value>70,]))
View(na.omit(data[data$value<5 & data$scope == 3,]))
View(na.omit(data[data$value==0,]))
### Simple plot
ggplot(data, aes(value)) +
geom_bar()
## Complex plot
title_text = "Estimated value of Metaculus questions"
subtitle_text = "(in arbitrary units)"
label_x_axis = "value"
label_y_axis = "Count"
ggplot(data, aes(value)) +
geom_bar(fill="darkblue")+
theme_tufte() +
labs(
title=title_text,
subtitle=subtitle_text,
x=label_x_axis,
y=label_y_axis
) +
theme(
legend.title = element_blank(),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
plot.subtitle = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
legend.position="bottom",
legend.box="vertical",
## axis.text.x=element_text(angle=60, hjust=1)
)
saveImage("metaculus-value")
### Complex plot, binned
title_text = "Estimated value of Metaculus questions"
subtitle_text = "(in arbitrary units)"
label_x_axis = "value"
label_y_axis = "Count"
ggplot(data, aes(value)) +
geom_bar(fill="darkblue")+
scale_x_binned()+
theme_tufte() +
labs(
title=title_text,
subtitle=subtitle_text,
x=label_x_axis,
y=label_y_axis
) +
theme(
legend.title = element_blank(),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
plot.subtitle = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
legend.position="bottom",
legend.box="vertical",
## axis.text.x=element_text(angle=60, hjust=1)
)
saveImage("metaculus-value-binned")
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