np-xG per 90 vs. xA per 90

xG_xA_plot_MD21.Rmd

# pkgs

```{r, message=FALSE, warning=FALSE}
pacman::p_load(tidyverse, polite, scales, ggimage, 
               ggforce, ggtext,
               rvest, glue, extrafont, ggrepel, magick)
loadfonts()
```

## add_logo

```{r}
add_logo <- function(plot_path, logo_path, logo_position, logo_scale = 10){
    # Requires magick R Package https://github.com/ropensci/magick
    # Useful error message for logo position
    if (!logo_position %in% c("top right", "top left", "bottom right", "bottom left")) {
        stop("Error Message: Uh oh! Logo Position not recognized\n  Try: logo_positon = 'top left', 'top right', 'bottom left', or 'bottom right'")
    }
    # read in raw images
    plot <- magick::image_read(plot_path)
    logo_raw <- magick::image_read(logo_path)
    # get dimensions of plot for scaling
    plot_height <- magick::image_info(plot)$height
    plot_width <- magick::image_info(plot)$width
    # default scale to 1/10th width of plot
    # Can change with logo_scale
    logo <- magick::image_scale(logo_raw, as.character(plot_width/logo_scale))
    # Get width of logo
    logo_width <- magick::image_info(logo)$width
    logo_height <- magick::image_info(logo)$height
    # Set position of logo
    # Position starts at 0,0 at top left
    # Using 0.01 for 1% - aesthetic padding
    if (logo_position == "top right") {
        x_pos = plot_width - logo_width - 0.01 * plot_width
        y_pos = 0.01 * plot_height
    } else if (logo_position == "top left") {
        x_pos = 0.01 * plot_width
        y_pos = 0.01 * plot_height
    } else if (logo_position == "bottom right") {
        x_pos = plot_width - logo_width - 0.01 * plot_width
        y_pos = plot_height - logo_height - 0.01 * plot_height
    } else if (logo_position == "bottom left") {
        x_pos = 0.01 * plot_width
        y_pos = plot_height - logo_height - 0.01 * plot_height
    }
    # Compose the actual overlay
    magick::image_composite(plot, logo, offset = paste0("+", x_pos, "+", y_pos))
}
```

# Premier League data

## fbref

- https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/stats/Premier-League-Stats
- Save "Player Standard Stats" & "Squad Standard Stats" as a `.csv` file or whatever you prefer.

### squad stats

```{r}
epl_squad_stats_MD21_2_raw <- read_csv(here::here("data/epl_squad_stats_MD21_2.csv"),
                                 skip = 1, col_names = TRUE)

epl_squad_stats_MD21_2 <- epl_squad_stats_MD21_2_raw %>% 
  rename_at(vars(12:16), 
            ~ glue::glue("{colnames(epl_squad_stats_MD21_2_raw)[12:16]}_p90")) %>% 
  rename_at(vars(20:24), 
            ~ glue::glue("{colnames(epl_squad_stats_MD21_2_raw)[20:24]}_p90"))

epl_squad_stats_MD21_2 <- epl_squad_stats_MD21_2 %>% 
  rename_at(vars(2:24), ~ glue::glue("{colnames(epl_squad_stats_MD21_2)[2:24]}_squad")) %>% 
  rename_at(vars(contains("_1")), ~ str_replace(., "_1", ""))

glimpse(epl_squad_stats_MD21_2)
```

### player stats

```{r}
epl_player_stats_MD20_raw <- read_csv(here::here("data/epl_player_stats_MD20.csv"),
                                  skip = 1, col_names = TRUE)

epl_player_stats_MD20 <- epl_player_stats_MD20_raw %>% 
  rename_at(vars(17:21), 
            ~ glue::glue("{colnames(epl_player_stats_MD20_raw)[17:21]}_p90")) %>% 
  rename_at(vars(25:29), 
            ~ glue::glue("{colnames(epl_player_stats_MD20_raw)[25:29]}_p90"))

epl_player_stats_MD20 <- epl_player_stats_MD20 %>% 
  rename_at(vars(contains("_1")), ~ str_replace(., "_1", "")) %>% 
  select(-Matches, -Rk)
  

glimpse(epl_player_stats_MD20)
```

## clean


```{r}
goal_contribution_clean_df <- epl_player_stats_MD20 %>% 
  left_join(epl_squad_stats_MD20, by = "Squad") %>% 
  separate(Player, into = c("fullname", "allname"), sep = "\\\\") %>% 
  separate(fullname, into = c("firstname", "lastname"),
           sep = "\\s", extra = "merge",
           remove = FALSE) %>%
  mutate(fname = str_extract(firstname, "[A-Z]{1}")) %>% 
  ## players like Fabinho listed without Tavares last name
  mutate(player = if_else(is.na(lastname), firstname, lastname)) %>% 
  mutate(player = case_when(
    !is.na(lastname) ~ glue("{fname}. {lastname}"),
    TRUE ~ firstname)) %>% 
  group_by(fullname) %>% 
  mutate(goal_contrib = Gls / Gls_squad,
         assist_contrib = Ast / Gls_squad) %>% 
  ungroup() %>% 
  ## keep fullname so can differentiate A. Gomes (Andre/Angel), etc.
  select(player, fullname, Pos, Squad, Min,
         Gls, Gls_squad, PK, PK_squad, 
         Ast, Ast_squad,
         goal_contrib, assist_contrib,
         npxG_p90, xA_p90, npxG, xA) 
glimpse(goal_contribution_clean_df)
```

```{r}
xG_xA_per90 <- goal_contribution_clean_df
```

```{r}
xG_xA_per90 %>% 
  filter(Min >= 900,
         Pos %in% c("FW", "FWMF")) %>% 
  summarize(avg_npxg90 = median(npxG_p90),
            avg_xA = median(xA_p90))
```

## plot

```{r}
desc_jesus <- "Jesus leads the league with 0.87 np-xG per 90, however, until the Everton game he had only converted 6 goals from 8.5 xG. Now he has improved to 8 goals from 9.6 np-xG!"

desc_aguero_sterling <- "With only 1 goal in the last 6 league games City is in desperate need for Aguero to get firing again as his 8 np-Goals from 6.6 np-xG is more clinical than Gabriel Jesus. Raheem Sterling is City's top scorer with 11 goals from 8.7 np-xG and is in the top 10 for xG and xA per 90 showing his dual threat."

desc_mahrez_debruyne <- "Mahrez & De Bruyne create the chances that Sterling, Aguero, and to a lesser extent - Gabriel Jesus convert. The two lead the league in Passes into the Penalty Area (PPA) while De Bruyne racks up 3.86 Key Passes (KP) per 90, the best in the league by far."
```


```{r fig.width = 12, fig.height = 10}
xG_xA_per90_plot <- xG_xA_per90 %>% 
  filter(Min >= 900) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(xA_p90, npxG_p90)) +
  geom_point(data = xG_xA_per90 %>%
               filter(xA_p90 < 0.13 | npxG_p90 < 0.29,
                      Min >= 900),
             color = "grey20", size = 4, alpha = 0.2) +
  geom_point(data = xG_xA_per90 %>%
               filter(xA_p90 > 0.13 | npxG_p90 > 0.29,
                      Min >= 900),
             color = "red", size = 4) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0.29, color = "red", alpha = 0.6) +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 0.13, color = "red", alpha = 0.6) +
  geom_text_repel(
    data = xG_xA_per90 %>%
      filter(xA_p90 > 0.13 | npxG_p90 > 0.29, 
             !player %in% c("G. Jesus", "R. Sterling", "S. Agüero",
                            "R. Mahrez", "K. De Bruyne", "S. Mané"),
             Min >= 900),
    aes(label = player, family = "Roboto Condensed", fontface = "bold"), 
    seed = 15, size = 3.5, 
    min.segment.length = 0, segment.color = "red",
    point.padding = 0.5) +
  geom_text(
    data = xG_xA_per90 %>%
      filter(player == "S. Mané"),
    aes(label = player, family = "Roboto Condensed", fontface = "bold"),
    size = 3.5, nudge_y = -0.015) +
  geom_text(
    data = xG_xA_per90 %>%
      filter(player == "R. Sterling"),
    aes(label = player, family = "Roboto Condensed", fontface = "bold"),
    size = 4.5, nudge_x = 0.03, nudge_y = 0.025,
    color = "#6CABDD") +
  geom_text_repel(
    data = xG_xA_per90 %>%
      filter(player %in% c("S. Agüero",
                           "R. Mahrez", "K. De Bruyne")),
    aes(label = player, family = "Roboto Condensed", fontface = "bold"), 
    seed = 15, size = 4.5, color = "#6CABDD",
    min.segment.length = 0, segment.color = "red",
    point.padding = unit(3, "mm")) +
  geom_mark_circle(
    aes(filter = player == "G. Jesus",
        label = "Gabi Jesus: The Finisher",
        description = desc_jesus),
    label.width = unit(60, 'mm'), label.buffer = unit(5, "mm"),
    label.family = "Roboto Condensed", label.fontsize = c(14, 12),
    label.colour = c("#6CABDD", "black")) +
  geom_mark_hull(
    aes(filter = player %in% c("R. Sterling", "S. Agüero"), 
        label = "City's Hybrid Threats",
        description = desc_aguero_sterling),
    expand = unit(0.05, "mm"), label.width = unit(80, 'mm'),
    label.buffer = unit(20, "mm"), label.fontsize = c(14, 11),
    label.family = "Roboto Condensed", 
    label.colour = c("#6CABDD", "black")) +
  geom_mark_hull(
    aes(filter = player %in% c("R. Mahrez", "K. De Bruyne"),
        label = "City's Creators-in-Chief",
        description = desc_mahrez_debruyne),
    expand = unit(2.22, "mm"), label.width = unit(100, 'mm'),
    label.buffer = unit(10, "mm"), label.fontsize = c(14, 11),
    label.family = "Roboto Condensed", 
    label.colour = c("#6CABDD", "black")) +
  annotate("text", family = "Roboto Condensed", fontface = "bold",
           x = 0.132, y = 0.9, hjust = 0, color = "red",
           label = "Average xA per 90: 0.14") +
  annotate("text", family = "Roboto Condensed", fontface = "bold",
           x = 0.57, y = 0.3, color = "red",
           label = "Average np-xG per 90: 0.29") +
  scale_x_continuous(labels = seq(0, 0.9, 0.1), 
                     breaks = seq(0, 0.9, 0.1),
                     limits = c(0, 0.65)) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = seq(0, 0.9, 0.1), 
                     breaks = seq(0, 0.9, 0.1),
                     limits = c(0, 0.9)) +
  labs(title = "<b style='color: #6CABDD'>City's Attackers </b> Dominate the 'Expected' Stats: xG per 90 & xA per 90", 
       subtitle = glue("
                       Premier League (2019-2020 Season) | Matchday 21 | January 3rd, 2020
                       <p><b style='color: red'>Average (Median)</b> for Midfielders/Forwards | Minimum 900 Minutes Played"),
       caption = glue("
                      Data: FBref | StatsBomb
                      Ryo Nakagawara, Twitter: @R_by_Ryo"),
       x = "Expected Assists (xA) per 90",
       y = "non-Penalty Expected Goals (np-xG) per 90") +
  theme_minimal() +
  theme(text = element_text(family = "Roboto Condensed"),
        plot.title = element_markdown(size = 18),
        plot.subtitle = element_markdown(size = 16),
        plot.caption = element_text(size = 14),
        axis.title = element_text(size = 14),
        axis.text = element_text(size = 12),
        panel.grid.minor.x = element_blank())

xG_xA_per90_plot
```



#### save

```{r}
ggsave(plot = xG_xA_per90_plot, 
       here::here("Premier League 2019-2020/output/xA_xG_per90_1920_MD21.png"),
       height = 10, width = 12)
```

```{r}
plot_logo <- add_logo(
  plot_path = here::here("Premier League 2019-2020/output/xA_xG_per90_1920_MD21.png"),
  logo_path = "https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/f2/Premier_League_Logo.svg",
  logo_position = "top right",
  logo_scale = 6)

plot_logo
```

```{r}
image_write(image = plot_logo, 
            here::here("Premier League 2019-2020/output/xA_xG_per90_1920_MD21_logo.png"))
```