Staross

How much does skill matter, a data-driven analysis

tl;dr

• At constant skill, your MMR will naturally fluctuate up and down for about 150 points.
• 100 MMR advantage over your opponents will give your about 3% more chance to win.

Does skill matter is not what is being asked here, but how much exactly does it matter. In other words, how much does 100 MMR advantage over your opponents does impact the probability that you win the game ?

Staross

using Gtk

win = @GtkWindow("")

a = @GtkEntry()
setproperty!(a, :text, "some text");
push!(win,a)

signal_connect(a,"key-press-event") do widget, event
  if event.keyval == Gtk.GdkKeySyms.Return

Staross

states = ["fair"; "unfair"]; 
coins = ["head", "tail"]; 

h = jHMM.HMM()
h = set_states(h,(:state,states))
h = set_transitions(h, f(state,statep) ~ P_tr(state,statep)  )

h = set_observation_space(h,(:coin,coins))
h = set_emission(h, f(state,coin) ~ P_em(state,coin) )