gistfile1.py

#!/bin/env python

import random
from functools import reduce
from collections import Counter


class PongSim:
    skills = [[0,0],[0,0]]

    def __init__(self, team1, team2):
        self.skills[0] = team1
        self.skills[1] = team2

    def run_match(self, rollback=True, cups=10):
        cups_left = [cups,cups]
        num_rounds = 0

        first = random.choice([0,1])
        second = 1 if first == 0 else 0

        while cups_left[0] > 0 and cups_left[1] > 0:
            if num_rounds == 0:  # Very first turn only the best player shoots
                if random.random() < max(self.skills[first]):
                    cups_left[first] -= 1
            else:
                teams = [first, second] if num_rounds > 0 else [second]  # Only run sim for second team on first round
                for team in teams:
                    made1 = random.random() < self.skills[first][0]
                    made2 = random.random() < self.skills[first][1]

                    if made1: cups_left[team] -= 1
                    if made2: cups_left[team] -= 1
                    if rollback and made1 and made2 and cups_left[team] > 0:
                        if random.random() < max(self.skills[team]):
                            cups_left[team] -= 1
                    if cups_left[team] < 1:  # we have a winner, do rebuttal here
                        break

            num_rounds += 1

        winner,loser = [0,1] if cups_left[1] > 0 else [1,0]
        cupdiff = cups_left[loser]
        return num_rounds, winner, cupdiff


game = PongSim([.65, .65], [.80, .25])

num_games = 1000000

outcome = []
for i in range(num_games):
    outcome.append(game.run_match())

avg_rounds = reduce(lambda x, y: x + y, [outcome[0] for outcome in outcome]) / num_games
avg_cupdiff = reduce(lambda x, y: x + y, [outcome[2] for outcome in outcome]) / num_games
winners = Counter([outcome[1] for outcome in outcome])

print("{} Games Simulated: Team 1 wins {} times ({}%), Team 2 wins {} ({}%). Avg number of rounds in the game: {}. Avg cup differential: {}".format(num_games,
                                                                                                                                winners[0], winners[0]/num_games,
                                                                                                                                winners[1], winners[1]/num_games,
                                                                                                                                avg_rounds, avg_cupdiff))