Live Births Germany

livebirths.r

library(readr)
library(dplyr)
library(tsibble)
library(TTR)
library(ggplot2)

# https://www-genesis.destatis.de/genesis/online?operation=table&code=12612-0002
df <- read_delim("https://apify.mortality.watch/genesis-12612-0002.csv",
  delim = ";",
  col_names = c("year", "month", "m", "f", "total"), skip = 6
)

df$month_int <- match(df$month, c(
  "Januar", "Februar", "M\xe4rz", "April", "Mai", "Juni",
  "Juli", "August", "September", "Oktober", "November", "Dezember"
))

ts <- df |>
  filter(!is.na(month_int) & total != "...") |>
  mutate(
    date = make_yearmonth(year, month_int),
    total = as.numeric(total),
    moving_avg = SMA(total, n = 12)
  ) |>
  select(date, total, moving_avg) |>
  as_tsibble(index = date)

sf <- 2
options(vsc.dev.args = list(width = 600 * sf, height = 335 * sf, res = 72 * sf))
ggplot(ts, aes(x = date)) +
  geom_line(aes(y = total), color = "black") +
  geom_line(aes(y = moving_avg), color = "blue") +
  labs(
    title = "Total and 12-month Moving Average of Live Births in Germany",
    subtitle = "Source: Destatis/Genesis: 12612-0002",
    y = "Live Births", x = "Month"
  )