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February 28, 2012 16:24
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What are the odds of pulling 3 1984 quarters out of a pile?
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"Picked up 3 quarters from my spare change pile. They were all from 1984. What are the | |
chances?!?!" [http://d.pr/9Trc] | |
So first, we need to figure out how many quarters in any given pile should be dated 1984. | |
Let's say that there are 65 billion quarters in circulation at the moment [1] and that | |
there were 1.2 billion quarters minted in 1984 [2]. | |
That means that 1.85% of the quarters in a given pile should be quarters with the date | |
1984. [1.2/65 = 1.85%] | |
Assuming an absurdly large pile of 1000 quarters, 18.5 should be dated 1984. We'll | |
drop the .5 and call those the coins taken out of circulation between 1984-2012. | |
Now it's time to pick the quarters. | |
The first pick has a 18/1000 chance of getting an '84 coin. | |
Second, 17/999. | |
Third, 16/998. | |
18 17 16 = 4,896 / 4896 = 1 | |
1000 999 998 = 997,002,000 / 4896 = 203,636 | |
So what are the odds of pulling 3 1984 quarters out of pile? My best guess is 1 in 203,636. | |
Give or take. | |
[1] http://www.fluther.com/25214/how-many-us-quarters-exist/ | |
[2] http://www.coincommunity.com/us_quarter_dollars/washington.asp | |
(676,545,000 + 546,483,064 = 1,223,028,064.) |
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