Find out percentage of tables created on disk
mysql> show global status like 'created_tmp_disk_tables';
+-------------------------+--------+
| Variable_name | Value |
+-------------------------+--------+
| Created_tmp_disk_tables | 278571 |
+-------------------------+--------+
1 row in set (0.00 sec)
mysql> show global status like 'created_tmp_tables';
+--------------------+---------+
| Variable_name | Value |
+--------------------+---------+
| Created_tmp_tables | 1617536 |
+--------------------+---------+
1 row in set (0.00 sec)
Tmp_disk_tables=((created_tmp_disk_tables*100/(created_tmp_tables+created_tmp_disk_tables))
= ((278571*100/(1617536 + 278571))
= 14.69%
If it exceeds 25% you may consider to increase tmp_table_size