Condorcet's Jury Theorem

Condorcet's Jury Theorem.carbide.md

Condorcet's Jury Theorem

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cell0.js

function choose(n, k) {
    if (k == 0) {
        return 1
    } else {
    	return (n * choose(n - 1, k - 1)) / k
    }
}

var N = 21;
var T = 100;



var p = [];
for (var t = 1; t < T; t++) { 
    p.push(t * 1/T) 
}
p



var probPasses = [];
for (var t = 1; t < T; t++) {
    var prob = 0;
    for (var k = Math.ceil(N/2); k <= N; k++) {
        prob = prob + choose(N,k) * (p[t-1]**k) * (1 - p[t-1])**(N-k)
    }
    probPasses.push(Math.round(prob*100000)/100000)
}
probPasses