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import math
import random
def alt_win_probability(p1, p2):
diff = p1 - p2
p = 1 - 1 / (1 + math.exp(0.00583 * diff - 0.0505))
return p
def win_probability(p1, p2):
diff = p1 - p2
p = 1 - 1 / (1 + 10 ** (diff / 400.0))
return p
def rate_1vs1(p1, p2, k=20, drawn=False):
rp1 = 10 ** (p1/400)
rp2 = 10 ** (p2/400)
exp_p1 = rp1 / float(rp1 + rp2)
exp_p2 = rp2 / float(rp1 + rp2)
if drawn == True:
s1 = 0.5
s2 = 0.5
else:
s1 = 1
s2 = 0
new_p1 = p1 + k * (s1 - exp_p1)
new_p2 = p2 + k * (s2 - exp_p2)
return new_p1, new_p2
def run_sim(starta, startb):
ayes, bees = [], []
for i in range(1, 1000):
a, b = starta, startb
for j in range(0, 1000):
if random.random() <= win_probability(starta, startb):
a, b = rate_1vs1(a, b)
else:
b, a = rate_1vs1(b, a)
ayes.append(a)
bees.append(b)
print sum(ayes) / len(ayes), sum(bees) / len(bees)
return sum(ayes) / len(ayes)
x = []
for i in range(0, 10):
x.append(run_sim(1550,1450))
print sum(x) / len(x)
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