public

anonymous / repeat_testing.pl

Created 2012-06-17

#!/usr/bin/perl
 
use strict;
use warnings;
use Statistics::Gtest;
use Statistics::Distributions;
use Data::Dumper;
 
#
# Just set up some basics
#
 
# How many variants and participants to include
my $VARIANTS        = 2;
my $SAMPLE_SIZE     = 100_000;
my $PARTICIPANTS    = $SAMPLE_SIZE * $VARIANTS;
 
# Conversion rate of mock experiments
my $CONVERSION_RATE = 3;
 
# Chisquare distribution levels
my $GTEST_CUTOFF_90 = 2.7105; # This means significance at .10 
my $GTEST_CUTOFF_95 = 3.8502; # This means significance at .05
 
# Number of mock experiments to run
my $EXPERIMENTS     = 1000;
 
# How many participants to do before starting checking
my $CHECK_CUTOFF    = 1000; 
 
 
#
# Counts
#
 
my $totals90 = 0;
my $totals95 = 0;
my $only_final90 = 0;
my $only_final95 = 0;
 
print <<EOT;
Running false positive checks with these metrics;
Sample size:     $SAMPLE_SIZE
Variants:        $VARIANTS
Conversion rate: $CONVERSION_RATE
Experiments:     $EXPERIMENTS
EOT
 
 
# 
# This is where the experiments are ran.
#
 
for my $experiment (1..$EXPERIMENTS) {
 
    my @variant;
    push @variant, [0, 0] for (0..$VARIANTS-1);
    
    my $finding90 = 0; 
    my $finding95 = 0; 
 
#
# One pretend experiment with $participants and the same $CONVERSION_RATE in 
# each variant, randomly assigning each participant to a variant at time seen
#
 
    for my $participant (0..$PARTICIPANTS) {
        my $var = int rand( $VARIANTS );
    
        (rand(100)<=$CONVERSION_RATE) 
            ? $variant[$var]->[0]++     # hits
            : $variant[$var]->[1]++;    # fails
 
        next if $participant < $CHECK_CUTOFF;
#        next unless int rand(100) == 5;
    
        my $g     = new Statistics::Gtest(\@variant);
        my $float = $g->getG();
 
        $finding90++ if $float>=$GTEST_CUTOFF_90;     
        $finding95++ if $float>=$GTEST_CUTOFF_95;
        
    }
 
    my $g     = new Statistics::Gtest(\@variant);
    my $float = $g->getG();    
 
    $only_final90++ if $float>=$GTEST_CUTOFF_90;
    $only_final95++ if $float>=$GTEST_CUTOFF_95;
    
    $totals90++ if $finding90;    
    $totals95++ if $finding95;    
 
    printf "Experiment %4s of $EXPERIMENTS: (%6s at p<.05) (%6s at p<0.10). Hitrate: $totals90 of $experiment at p<0.10, $totals95 of $experiment at p<0.05. (One check: $only_final90 of $experiment at p<0.1, $only_final95 of $experiment at p<0.05) \n",
    $experiment, $finding95, $finding90;
 
}