Martingale Prediction for sites like just-dice

predict_martingale_v4.py

#!/usr/bin/python
# Martingale Predictor V0.1
# Author: Fabian1291
# 2013/09/07 for bitcointalk.org

from random import *
from time import sleep
totalwin=0
totalloss=0
lines=0

maxgames=raw_input("Number of games to simulate [default: 10000]: ")
if not maxgames:
    maxgames=10000.0
else:
    maxgames=float(maxgames)



initialbankroll = raw_input("Start bankroll [default: 0.2]: ")
if not initialbankroll:
    initialbankroll = 0.2
else:
    initialbankroll=float(initialbankroll)
 
    
targetbankroll = raw_input("Target bankroll [default: 0.4]: ")
if not targetbankroll:
    targetbankroll = 0.4
else:
    targetbankroll=float(targetbankroll)
    
initialbet = raw_input("Initial bet [default: 0.01]: ")
if not initialbet:
    initialbet = 0.01
else:
    initialbet=float(initialbet)   
    
max_times_to_double = raw_input("Max times to double the bet [default: 20]: ")
if not max_times_to_double:
    max_times_to_double = 20.0
else:
    max_times_to_double=float(max_times_to_double)
 
    
chancetowin = raw_input("Chance to win [default: 50%]: ")
if not chancetowin:
    chancetowin = 50.0
else:
    chancetowin=float(chancetowin)        

houseedge = raw_input("House edge [default: 1%]: ")
if not houseedge:
    houseedge = 1.0
else:
    houseedge=float(houseedge)     
    


multiplier = float(100/chancetowin)
faktor = float(multiplier - (multiplier*houseedge/100))
maxfaktor = float(initialbet * (2**max_times_to_double))
maxcounter = 0
o=0.0
while o in xrange(int(maxgames)):
    if o%((maxgames/100)*5) == 0:
        print str(o/(maxgames/100))+"% ..."
    o+=1
    bankroll = initialbankroll
    bet = initialbet
    i = 1
    end = False 
    times_maxbet_was_used=0
    while bankroll<targetbankroll and bankroll>=initialbet:
        
        
        lucky = round((random()*100),4)
        while lucky == 100.0:
            # scale is from 0.0000 to 99.9999 so luck can't be 100 and has to be calculated again
            lucky = round((random()*100),4)
        
        
        i = i + 1
        if (lucky <= (chancetowin-0.0001)):
            bankroll=(bankroll-bet)+bet*faktor
            buff_bet=bet
            bet=initialbet
            status='       WIN'
        else:
            bankroll=bankroll-bet
            buff_bet=bet
            status='       LOSE'
            if bet == maxfaktor:
                times_maxbet_was_used += 1
                bet = initialbet
            else:
                if (bet*2)<=bankroll:
                    bet=bet*2
                
                else:
                    bet = initialbet
        #print "bet " + str(buff_bet) + " * factor " + str(faktor) + " = " + str(buff_bet*faktor) 
    	#print str(i)+'. :'+ str(bankroll) + status
        #print "guess: "+str(chancetowin-0.0001)+"; lucky: "+str(lucky)
        #print "\n\n"
        #sleep(1)
        
    	if bankroll<initialbet or bankroll>=targetbankroll:
            end = True
        if bankroll < initialbet:
            totalloss+=1
        elif bankroll >=targetbankroll:
            totalwin+=1
		
        if end:
            lines+=i
            
            #print str(i)+status+' '+ str(bankroll)
            maxcounter += times_maxbet_was_used
            #print str(times_maxbet_was_used)+ ' mal '+str(maxfaktor)+'x'
print "\nBankroll: " + str(initialbankroll) +" - "+ str(targetbankroll) + " (maxgames: " + str(maxgames)+")"
print "Initial bet: " + str(initialbet)
print "Chance to win: " + str(chancetowin) + "%, Payout: " + str(faktor) + "x times of bet"
print "Max. times to double: " + str(max_times_to_double) + " (max. wager:"+ str(maxfaktor) + ", " + str(maxcounter) + "x used)" 
print "Average number of bets needed per game: " + str(int(round((lines/maxgames),0)))
print "\nHow many games were won, how many were lost?"
print "    WINS:   " + str(totalwin) + "x"
print "    LOSSES: " + str(totalloss) + "x"
print "Winning probability for this strategy: " + str(float(totalwin*100/maxgames)) + "%\n"