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COVID-19 simuation by SEIR model
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# The preprints is available from https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0179/v1 | |
# S Susceptible | |
# E Exposed | |
# I Infected | |
# R Recovery | |
%matplotlib inline | |
import numpy as np | |
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt | |
r0 = 3. # basic reproduction number | |
p = 10. # Infectious period(day) | |
prevalence = 0.7 # patients/at-risk people | |
recovery = 1.0 # recovery rate from disease | |
initial_infection = 10. # initial number of carrier | |
beta = r0/p # propergation rate of infection | |
delta = prevalence/p # | |
nu = recovery/p # | |
N = 1000 # Population | |
D = 100 # observation days | |
t = np.arange(0, D, 1) | |
Ss = np.array([N]) | |
Es = np.array([0]) | |
Is = np.array([initial_infection]) | |
Rs = np.array([0]) | |
def dsdt(S, I): | |
return -beta * S * I / N | |
def dedt(S, I, E): | |
return beta * S * I / N - delta * E | |
def didt(E, I): | |
return delta * E - nu * I | |
def drdt(I): | |
return nu * I | |
for i in t[0:D-1]: | |
Ss = np.append(Ss, Ss[i] + dsdt(Ss[i], Is[i])) | |
Es = np.append(Es, Es[i] + dedt(Ss[i], Is[i], Es[i])) | |
Is = np.append(Is, Is[i] + didt(Es[i], Is[i])) | |
Rs = np.append(Rs, Rs[i] + drdt(Is[i])) | |
#print(Ss, Es, Is, Rs) | |
plt.plot(t, Ss, label='S') | |
plt.plot(t, Es, label='E') | |
plt.plot(t, Is, label='I') | |
plt.plot(t, Rs, label='R') | |
plt.legend() |
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