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Last active January 2, 2022 05:55
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data {
int<lower=0> Y[4];
parameters {
real mu;
real<lower=0> sigma;
transformed parameters {
vector<lower=0>[4] theta;
theta[1] = normal_cdf(39.5 | mu, sigma);
theta[2] = normal_cdf(40.5 | mu, sigma) - normal_cdf(39.5 | mu, sigma);
theta[3] = normal_cdf(41.5 | mu, sigma) - normal_cdf(40.5 | mu, sigma);
theta[4] = 1 - normal_cdf(41.5 | mu, sigma);
model {
Y ~ multinomial(theta);
generated quantities {
int<lower=0> Y_pred[4];
Y_pred = multinomial_rng(theta, sum(Y));
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