probability_reference.R

library(tidyverse)

streak_len <- 7
ref_denom <- 276

tibble(x=1:streak_len,
       y=(1/6)^x) %>%
  ggplot(aes(x=x+1, y=y)) +
  geom_point() +
  geom_line() +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 1/ref_denom, linetype='dotted', color='red') +
  annotate('text', 
           x=(streak_len+1), y=1/ref_denom, 
           label=paste0('(1/', ref_denom, ', chance)'), 
           color='red', size=3, vjust=-1, hjust=1) +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks=1:(streak_len+1), minor_breaks = NULL) +
  scale_y_log10(labels=scales::percent) +
  labs(title='Chance of X consecutive identical rools of a 6-sided die',
       x='Same-roll streak', y='Probability') +
  theme_light()