texas_prez_poll.R

library(tidyverse)

# Prep data
# data from https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2625
dat <- 
"challenger, d_pct, trump_pct
Biden, 48, 44
Sanders, 44, 47
Warren, 45, 46
Harris, 43, 47
Buttigieg, 44, 46
O'Rourke, 45, 48
Castro, 43, 46" %>%
  read_csv
margin_err <- 3.4
dat <- dat %>%
  mutate(delta = d_pct - trump_pct,
         range_hi = delta + margin_err,
         range_low = delta - margin_err)
# per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas
hillary_margin_2016 <- 43.24 - 52.23

# Plot
ggplot(dat, aes(x=fct_reorder(challenger, -delta))) +
  geom_point(aes(y=delta),
             color='dodgerblue') +
  geom_linerange(aes(ymin=range_low, ymax=range_hi), 
                 color='dodgerblue', size=1) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = hillary_margin_2016, 
             linetype = 'dotted', color='dodgerblue') +
  annotate('text', 
           x = 0.5, y = hillary_margin_2016,
           hjust=0, vjust = -1,
           size=3, color='dodgerblue',
           fontface = 'italic',
           label = paste0('Hillary-Trump popular vote margin 2016: ',
                         round(hillary_margin_2016, 1), '%')
           ) +
  labs(title = 'Texas Voter Preference',
       subtitle = paste0('Challenger lead over Trump w/ margin of error',
                         '\nQunnipiac Poll, Jun 5 \'19'),
       x = 'challenger', y = '(% for challenger) - (% for Trump)',
       caption = paste('Question: If the election for president',
                       'were being held today, and the candidates were\n',
                       '{challenger} the Democrat and Donald Trump',
                       'the Republican, for whom would you vote?')) +
  theme_light() +
  theme(plot.caption = element_text(face='italic', color='grey30'),
        axis.title = element_text(color='grey70', size = 9))