Forecast for https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5356/2020-us-election-concession/ using a small tool for summing the interesting paths in a probability tree.

concede.yaml

biden wins [0.85]:
  biden large win [0.47]:
    results before deadline [0.90]:
      trump concedes [0.75]: true
      ~trump concedes: false
    ~results before deadline:
      trump concedes [0.01]: true
      ~trump concedes: false
  biden moderate win [0.3]:
    results before deadline [0.80]:
      trump concedes [0.70]: true
      ~trump concedes: false
    ~results before deadline:
      trump concedes [0.01]: true
      ~trump concedes: false
  biden small win [0.18]:
    results before deadline [0.50]:
      trump concedes [0.50]: true
      ~trump concedes: false
    ~results before deadline:
      trump concedes [0.01]: true
      ~trump concedes: false
  recount [0.05]:
    results before deadline [0.2]:
      biden concedes [0.95]: true
      trump concedes [0.4]: true
      both concede [0.01]: true
      no one concedes: false
    ~results before deadline:
      biden concedes [0.03]: true
      trump concedes [0.01]: true
      both concede [0.01]: true
      no one concedes: false
trump wins:
    trump large win [0.07]:
      results before deadline [0.90]:
        biden concedes [0.95]: true
        ~biden concedes: false
      ~results before deadline:
        biden concedes [0.01]: true
        ~biden concedes: false
    trump moderate win [0.33]:
      results before deadline [0.80]:
        biden concedes [0.95]: true
        ~biden concedes: false
      ~results before deadline:
        biden concedes [0.01]: true
        ~biden concedes: false
    trump small win [0.50]:
      results before deadline [0.50]:
        biden concedes [0.95]: true
        ~biden concedes: false
      ~results before deadline:
        biden concedes [0.03]: true
        ~biden concedes: false
    recount [0.10]:
      results before deadline [0.2]:
        biden concedes [0.95]: true
        trump concedes [0.4]: true
        both concede [0.01]: true
        no one concedes: false
      ~results before deadline:
        biden concedes [0.03]: true
        trump concedes [0.01]: true
        both concede [0.01]: true
        no one concedes: false

output.txt

$ python main.py -f concede.yaml
[0.00001050] trump wins {p=0.15} → trump large win {p=0.07} → ~results before deadline {p=0.10} → biden concedes {p=0.01}
[0.0000300] trump wins {p=0.15} → recount {p=0.10} → results before deadline {p=0.2} → both concede {p=0.01}
[0.0000850] biden wins {p=0.85} → recount {p=0.05} → results before deadline {p=0.2} → both concede {p=0.01}
[0.00009900] trump wins {p=0.15} → trump moderate win {p=0.33} → ~results before deadline {p=0.20} → biden concedes {p=0.01}
[0.0001200] trump wins {p=0.15} → recount {p=0.10} → ~results before deadline {p=0.8} → both concede {p=0.01}
[0.0001200] trump wins {p=0.15} → recount {p=0.10} → ~results before deadline {p=0.8} → trump concedes {p=0.01}
[0.0003400] biden wins {p=0.85} → recount {p=0.05} → ~results before deadline {p=0.8} → both concede {p=0.01}
[0.0003400] biden wins {p=0.85} → recount {p=0.05} → ~results before deadline {p=0.8} → trump concedes {p=0.01}
[0.0003600] trump wins {p=0.15} → recount {p=0.10} → ~results before deadline {p=0.8} → biden concedes {p=0.03}
[0.00039950] biden wins {p=0.85} → biden large win {p=0.47} → ~results before deadline {p=0.10} → trump concedes {p=0.01}
[0.0005100] biden wins {p=0.85} → biden moderate win {p=0.3} → ~results before deadline {p=0.20} → trump concedes {p=0.01}
[0.00076500] biden wins {p=0.85} → biden small win {p=0.18} → ~results before deadline {p=0.50} → trump concedes {p=0.01}
[0.0010200] biden wins {p=0.85} → recount {p=0.05} → ~results before deadline {p=0.8} → biden concedes {p=0.03}
[0.00112500] trump wins {p=0.15} → trump small win {p=0.50} → ~results before deadline {p=0.50} → biden concedes {p=0.03}
[0.001200] trump wins {p=0.15} → recount {p=0.10} → results before deadline {p=0.2} → trump concedes {p=0.4}
[0.0028500] trump wins {p=0.15} → recount {p=0.10} → results before deadline {p=0.2} → biden concedes {p=0.95}
[0.003400] biden wins {p=0.85} → recount {p=0.05} → results before deadline {p=0.2} → trump concedes {p=0.4}
[0.0080750] biden wins {p=0.85} → recount {p=0.05} → results before deadline {p=0.2} → biden concedes {p=0.95}
[0.00897750] trump wins {p=0.15} → trump large win {p=0.07} → results before deadline {p=0.90} → biden concedes {p=0.95}
[0.03562500] trump wins {p=0.15} → trump small win {p=0.50} → results before deadline {p=0.50} → biden concedes {p=0.95}
[0.03762000] trump wins {p=0.15} → trump moderate win {p=0.33} → results before deadline {p=0.80} → biden concedes {p=0.95}
[0.03825000] biden wins {p=0.85} → biden small win {p=0.18} → results before deadline {p=0.50} → trump concedes {p=0.50}
[0.1428000] biden wins {p=0.85} → biden moderate win {p=0.3} → results before deadline {p=0.80} → trump concedes {p=0.70}
[0.26966250] biden wins {p=0.85} → biden large win {p=0.47} → results before deadline {p=0.90} → trump concedes {p=0.75}

Overall: 0.55378400