second-order expected value of covid vaccine

vaccine.py

def compute_value_of_vaccine(
    number_of_people_you_would_infect=1.1,  # rt.live
    value_of_a_human_life=10000000,  # your life is worth ten million bucks
    vaccine_efficacy=0.95,  # the vaccine is 95% effective
    covid_death_rate=0.01,  # 1% of infected people die
):
    expected_cost_of_death = value_of_a_human_life * covid_death_rate

    expected_cost_of_family_death = (
        expected_cost_of_death * number_of_people_you_would_infect
    )
    expected_cost_of_infection = expected_cost_of_death + expected_cost_of_family_death

    covid_death_rate_with_vaccine = covid_death_rate * (1.0 - vaccine_efficacy)

    expected_cost_of_death_with_vaccine = (
        value_of_a_human_life * covid_death_rate_with_vaccine
    )

    expected_cost_of_family_death_with_vaccine = (
        expected_cost_of_death_with_vaccine * number_of_people_you_would_infect
    )

    expected_cost_with_vaccine = (
        expected_cost_of_death_with_vaccine + expected_cost_of_family_death_with_vaccine
    )

    # difference in cost
    value_of_vaccine = expected_cost_of_infection - expected_cost_with_vaccine
    return value_of_vaccine


if __name__ == "__main__":
    value = compute_value_of_vaccine()
    print(f"the value of a vaccine is {value}")
    # the value of a vaccine is 199500.0