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myData=c(1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0) | |
# 尝试1万个不同的参数 | |
tryn = 1e4 | |
Theta = sort(runif(tryn)) | |
pTheta = 1/tryn | |
z = sum( myData==1 ) | |
N = length( myData ) | |
# 似然函数 | |
pDataGivenTheta = Theta^z * (1-Theta)^(N-z) | |
pData = sum( pDataGivenTheta * pTheta ) | |
# 后验概率 | |
pThetaGivenData = pDataGivenTheta * pTheta / pData | |
plot(x=Theta,y=pThetaGivenData,type='l') |
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