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chrishanretty/2022-10-20-nc11.R

Created October 20, 2022 10:35
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Analysis of House of Commons abortion clinics vote
Raw
2022-10-20-nc11.R
library(tidyverse)
library(hrbrthemes)
### This section reads in the data -- scroll down for the code that
### generates the figures and the graphics
tibble::tribble(
~aye_vote, ~ONSConstID, ~Constituency, ~MP, ~Party, ~ConstyOpposition, ~ConstyOpposition_sd,
1, "E14000530", "Aldershot", "Leo Docherty", "Conservative", 1.67320394423204, 0.0170138236227471,
1, "E14000533", "Amber Valley", "Nigel Mills", "Conservative", 1.62665797384015, 0.0164865022464967,
0, "E14000534", "Arundel and South Downs", "Andrew Griffith", "Conservative", 1.60496164308106, 0.0152430774872784,
1, "E14000535", "Ashfield", "Lee Anderson", "Conservative", 1.68715363451414, 0.0180799714644223,
1, "E14000537", "Ashton-under-Lyne", "Angela Rayner", "Labour", 1.74837738552865, 0.015448685981176,
1, "E14000541", "Barnsley Central", "Dan Jarvis", "Labour", 1.70078252585428, 0.0171178875984935,
1, "E14000542", "Barnsley East", "Stephanie Peacock", "Labour", 1.6835001312548, 0.0178896530099693,
1, "E14000543", "Barrow and Furness", "Simon Fell", "Conservative", 1.65190406440332, 0.0159645450977208,
1, "E14000544", "Basildon and Billericay", "Mr John Baron", "Conservative", 1.63200761438966, 0.015986073223049,
1, "E14000545", "Basingstoke", "Dame Maria Miller", "Conservative", 1.58005126234742, 0.0158319003067594,
0, "E14000546", "Bassetlaw", "Brendan Clarke-Smith", "Conservative", 1.71801663270337, 0.014488300772607,
1, "E14000547", "Bath", "Wera Hobhouse", "Liberal Democrat", 1.55931700811258, 0.0163215208563219,
1, "E14000548", "Batley and Spen", "Kim Leadbeater", "Labour", 1.76161539818628, 0.0131536131883407,
1, "E14000549", "Battersea", "Marsha De Cordova", "Labour", 1.52200257495466, 0.0220530674414691,
0, "E14000550", "Beaconsfield", "Joy Morrissey", "Conservative", 1.57109097708041, 0.0185363356635491,
0, "E14000551", "Beckenham", "Bob Stewart", "Conservative", 1.58505423990257, 0.0165761998641722,
1, "E14000552", "Bedford", "Mohammad Yasin", "Labour", 1.65709564536731, 0.0174250183325238,
1, "E14000553", "Bermondsey and Old Southwark", "Neil Coyle", "Independent", 1.56325298366651, 0.0253494978522725,
1, "E14000555", "Bethnal Green and Bow", "Rushanara Ali", "Labour", 1.64130268138881, 0.0236555241670143,
0, "E14000556", "Beverley and Holderness", "Graham Stuart", "Conservative", 1.64683154579962, 0.0161646674071887,
1, "E14000557", "Bexhill and Battle", "Huw Merriman", "Conservative", 1.63465740784741, 0.01552335425023,
0, "E14000558", "Bexleyheath and Crayford", "Sir David Evennett", "Conservative", 1.64830579322792, 0.0165402559771877,
1, "E14000559", "Birkenhead", "Mick Whitley", "Labour", 1.72194648401982, 0.0162761651478413,
1, "E14000560", "Birmingham, Edgbaston", "Preet Kaur Gill", "Labour (Co-op)", 1.7460156006019, 0.0176782549857918,
1, "E14000561", "Birmingham, Erdington", "Mrs Paulette Hamilton", "Labour", 1.77021616234094, 0.0168151434272039,
1, "E14000562", "Birmingham, Hall Green", "Tahir Ali", "Labour", 1.83385314943118, 0.0198679189971236,
1, "E14000563", "Birmingham, Hodge Hill", "Liam Byrne", "Labour", 1.92558076149177, 0.0197423818820589,
1, "E14000564", "Birmingham, Ladywood", "Shabana Mahmood", "Labour", 1.81324120202998, 0.024032775198715,
0, "E14000565", "Birmingham, Northfield", "Gary Sambrook", "Conservative", 1.70709186090946, 0.016764936263505,
1, "E14000567", "Birmingham, Selly Oak", "Steve McCabe", "Labour", 1.64675176651895, 0.016280854066533,
1, "E14000568", "Birmingham, Yardley", "Jess Phillips", "Labour", 1.85173236808202, 0.0178763244934584,
1, "E14000569", "Bishop Auckland", "Dehenna Davison", "Conservative", 1.66364622713134, 0.0152972052905006,
1, "E14000570", "Blackburn", "Kate Hollern", "Labour", 1.81183362140834, 0.0168631214232549,
1, "E14000571", "Blackley and Broughton", "Graham Stringer", "Labour", 1.74750996040118, 0.0196508106317416,
0, "E14000572", "Blackpool North and Cleveleys", "Paul Maynard", "Conservative", 1.71429207812318, 0.0152100982755766,
0, "E14000573", "Blackpool South", "Scott Benton", "Conservative", 1.72833339423749, 0.0200729907124908,
1, "E14000574", "Blaydon", "Liz Twist", "Labour", 1.68817687812162, 0.0154217030508095,
1, "E14000577", "Bolsover", "Mark Fletcher", "Conservative", 1.65872074638931, 0.0171182139262644,
1, "E14000579", "Bolton South East", "Yasmin Qureshi", "Labour", 1.79860049094462, 0.0156507689220899,
0, "E14000580", "Bolton West", "Chris Green", "Conservative", 1.65039370166422, 0.0145493684552802,
1, "E14000581", "Bootle", "Peter Dowd", "Labour", 1.71214080813354, 0.0170672846879166,
1, "E14000582", "Boston and Skegness", "Matt Warman", "Conservative", 1.71436071525983, 0.0188809248813675,
1, "E14000586", "Bracknell", "James Sunderland", "Conservative", 1.56762815310894, 0.0156271483684635,
1, "E14000587", "Bradford East", "Imran Hussain", "Labour", 1.83500083044956, 0.0161772203820097,
1, "E14000588", "Bradford South", "Judith Cummins", "Labour", 1.72482607357872, 0.0162287895427739,
1, "E14000592", "Brent North", "Barry Gardiner", "Labour", 1.77222809166483, 0.0205034254567465,
1, "E14000593", "Brentford and Isleworth", "Ruth Cadbury", "Labour", 1.61925620910007, 0.0199336940368803,
0, "E14000594", "Brentwood and Ongar", "Alex Burghart", "Conservative", 1.55844138592737, 0.0169712560548284,
0, "E14000595", "Bridgwater and West Somerset", "Mr Ian Liddell-Grainger", "Conservative", 1.66635090706428, 0.0140714503142172,
1, "E14000596", "Brigg and Goole", "Andrew Percy", "Conservative", 1.65863070449057, 0.0146349025401521,
1, "E14000597", "Brighton, Kemptown", "Lloyd Russell-Moyle", "Labour (Co-op)", 1.55202211435875, 0.0169280303996151,
1, "E14000598", "Brighton, Pavilion", "Caroline Lucas", "Green Party", 1.43920020343158, 0.0334613421066686,
1, "E14000599", "Bristol East", "Kerry McCarthy", "Labour", 1.61733859124011, 0.0166183141648769,
1, "E14000602", "Bristol West", "Thangam Debbonaire", "Labour", 1.47059183178002, 0.0244015344130573,
1, "E14000603", "Broadland", "Jerome Mayhew", "Conservative", 1.61724829388338, 0.0155784341929269,
1, "E14000607", "Broxtowe", "Darren Henry", "Conservative", 1.62622854963646, 0.0158334493502065,
0, "E14000608", "Buckingham", "Greg Smith", "Conservative", 1.57125952988813, 0.014446244739991,
1, "E14000609", "Burnley", "Antony Higginbotham", "Conservative", 1.72735042981579, 0.0141984395854072,
1, "E14000610", "Burton", "Kate Kniveton", "Conservative", 1.67668363398443, 0.0165783328784321,
1, "E14000611", "Bury North", "James Daly", "Conservative", 1.68996729002438, 0.0149710555060616,
1, "E14000612", "Bury South", "Christian Wakeford", "Labour", 1.64170897450708, 0.0167532561817834,
0, "E14000614", "Calder Valley", "Craig Whittaker", "Conservative", 1.64720332031149, 0.0156071399797592,
1, "E14000617", "Cambridge", "Daniel Zeichner", "Labour", 1.52365495289615, 0.0186381561270077,
1, "E14000618", "Cannock Chase", "Amanda Milling", "Conservative", 1.63794897153763, 0.0156730572942225,
1, "E14000619", "Canterbury", "Rosie Duffield", "Labour", 1.59441875767886, 0.0170445589157907,
0, "E14000620", "Carlisle", "John Stevenson", "Conservative", 1.66692965277485, 0.0155153389839598,
1, "E14000621", "Carshalton and Wallington", "Elliot Colburn", "Conservative", 1.68606345181773, 0.0180477993517452,
0, "E14000623", "Central Devon", "Mel Stride", "Conservative", 1.62864426785198, 0.0145789317810844,
1, "E14000624", "Central Suffolk and North Ipswich", "Dr Dan Poulter", "Conservative", 1.61314840262416, 0.0146525814682854,
1, "E14000625", "Charnwood", "Edward Argar", "Conservative", 1.69911582391563, 0.0156982028129524,
1, "E14000626", "Chatham and Aylesford", "Tracey Crouch", "Conservative", 1.60528616511677, 0.0169401912240932,
0, "E14000627", "Cheadle", "Mary Robinson", "Conservative", 1.66715582311458, 0.0173815941208245,
1, "E14000631", "Chesham and Amersham", "Sarah Green", "Liberal Democrat", 1.58309152884128, 0.0145133269772339,
1, "E14000632", "Chesterfield", "Mr Toby Perkins", "Labour", 1.67748745437975, 0.0142808344087433,
0, "E14000634", "Chingford and Woodford Green", "Sir Iain Duncan Smith", "Conservative", 1.6536876072564, 0.0164660533625081,
0, "E14000635", "Chippenham", "Michelle Donelan", "Conservative", 1.6564432753646, 0.0141219931813151,
0, "E14000636", "Chipping Barnet", "Theresa Villiers", "Conservative", 1.63701033289116, 0.0193081387853072,
0, "E14000638", "Christchurch", "Sir Christopher Chope", "Conservative", 1.65363298685607, 0.0157254378234059,
1, "E14000639", "Cities of London and Westminster", "Nickie Aiken", "Conservative", 1.52331773241991, 0.0252320599882147,
1, "E14000640", "City of Chester", "Christian Matheson", "Labour", 1.60044825492772, 0.0151584165593001,
0, "E14000642", "Clacton", "Giles Watling", "Conservative", 1.67647975020113, 0.018569210105041,
0, "E14000643", "Cleethorpes", "Martin Vickers", "Conservative", 1.68034550006464, 0.0168569090134057,
1, "E14000644", "Colchester", "Will Quince", "Conservative", 1.60629661597478, 0.0160588777663163,
1, "E14000645", "Colne Valley", "Jason McCartney", "Conservative", 1.68084270491918, 0.0153433760108308,
0, "E14000646", "Congleton", "Fiona Bruce", "Conservative", 1.62707705875169, 0.0147825869504639,
1, "E14000647", "Copeland", "Trudy Harrison", "Conservative", 1.59215038756225, 0.0180792540458193,
1, "E14000648", "Corby", "Tom Pursglove", "Conservative", 1.6247106245688, 0.0160629777712448,
1, "E14000650", "Coventry North West", "Taiwo Owatemi", "Labour", 1.65826924749256, 0.0189940693544586,
1, "E14000651", "Coventry South", "Zarah Sultana", "Labour", 1.62700058940096, 0.0200928265421275,
0, "E14000652", "Crawley", "Henry Smith", "Conservative", 1.65214505763164, 0.0154002143648507,
1, "E14000653", "Crewe and Nantwich", "Dr Kieran Mullan", "Conservative", 1.6585965450198, 0.0151030432781274,
1, "E14000654", "Croydon Central", "Sarah Jones", "Labour", 1.70047866706621, 0.017472777361023,
1, "E14000655", "Croydon North", "Steve Reed", "Labour (Co-op)", 1.76562911804031, 0.0183510126157668,
1, "E14000656", "Croydon South", "Chris Philp", "Conservative", 1.63917182921374, 0.01800376234074,
1, "E14000657", "Dagenham and Rainham", "Jon Cruddas", "Labour", 1.73606646716825, 0.0176354097335842,
1, "E14000658", "Darlington", "Peter Gibson", "Conservative", 1.67195314542897, 0.0157020380131421,
1, "E14000661", "Denton and Reddish", "Andrew Gwynne", "Labour", 1.70682160997358, 0.0150703933444183,
1, "E14000663", "Derby South", "Margaret Beckett", "Labour", 1.74770005014514, 0.0154475852532287,
0, "E14000664", "Derbyshire Dales", "Miss Sarah Dines", "Conservative", 1.59910985625938, 0.0159684476218511,
0, "E14000665", "Devizes", "Danny Kruger", "Conservative", 1.56512790259552, 0.0149205818412206,
1, "E14000666", "Dewsbury", "Mark Eastwood", "Conservative", 1.70459622232232, 0.0138163184359577,
1, "E14000669", "Doncaster North", "Edward Miliband", "Labour", 1.69660056610224, 0.0139201722012644,
0, "E14000670", "Dover", "Mrs Natalie Elphicke", "Conservative", 1.61608521446069, 0.0157514174500249,
0, "E14000671", "Dudley North", "Marco Longhi", "Conservative", 1.73672108627686, 0.0197117060187869,
1, "E14000673", "Dulwich and West Norwood", "Helen Hayes", "Labour", 1.54926027346748, 0.020875649366214,
1, "E14000674", "Ealing Central and Acton", "Dr Rupa Huq", "Independent", 1.62520137865741, 0.0229775998178588,
1, "E14000675", "Ealing North", "James Murray", "Labour (Co-op)", 1.79182702563897, 0.0170772399956728,
1, "E14000676", "Ealing, Southall", "Mr Virendra Sharma", "Labour", 1.75845954633963, 0.0176454938674116,
1, "E14000678", "East Devon", "Simon Jupp", "Conservative", 1.61695184554962, 0.0212921861084154,
0, "E14000681", "East Surrey", "Claire Coutinho", "Conservative", 1.57433962598984, 0.0158172008765623,
1, "E14000682", "East Worthing and Shoreham", "Tim Loughton", "Conservative", 1.6408233889321, 0.0148877845670229,
0, "E14000683", "East Yorkshire", "Sir Greg Knight", "Conservative", 1.66294173495026, 0.0170176242533592,
0, "E14000684", "Eastbourne", "Caroline Ansell", "Conservative", 1.69453260019579, 0.0154004641078039,
1, "E14000687", "Edmonton", "Kate Osamor", "Labour (Co-op)", 1.83070663516072, 0.0197467888042278,
1, "E14000688", "Ellesmere Port and Neston", "Justin Madders", "Labour", 1.68948104287811, 0.0162328274893916,
1, "E14000689", "Elmet and Rothwell", "Alec Shelbrooke", "Conservative", 1.60234075801369, 0.0152453219898998,
1, "E14000690", "Eltham", "Clive Efford", "Labour", 1.62863417930354, 0.0169930870307383,
1, "E14000691", "Enfield North", "Feryal Clark", "Labour", 1.67820677884416, 0.0171770294400604,
1, "E14000692", "Enfield, Southgate", "Bambos Charalambous", "Labour", 1.70363202449301, 0.018870125079936,
0, "E14000694", "Epsom and Ewell", "Chris Grayling", "Conservative", 1.60436357261213, 0.0163249635699249,
1, "E14000695", "Erewash", "Maggie Throup", "Conservative", 1.67155020938583, 0.0132187050747125,
1, "E14000698", "Exeter", "Mr Ben Bradshaw", "Labour", 1.56734468769852, 0.0188589018418411,
0, "E14000699", "Fareham", "Suella Braverman", "Conservative", 1.63445811357583, 0.0149250273220553,
1, "E14000703", "Finchley and Golders Green", "Mike Freer", "Conservative", 1.65566471587894, 0.020645245132761,
1, "E14000704", "Folkestone and Hythe", "Damian Collins", "Conservative", 1.65730442477344, 0.0160261384742893,
0, "E14000705", "Forest of Dean", "Mr Mark Harper", "Conservative", 1.60892268298456, 0.0158004023210638,
0, "E14000707", "Gainsborough", "Sir Edward Leigh", "Conservative", 1.65699200498909, 0.017170214585984,
1, "E14000708", "Garston and Halewood", "Maria Eagle", "Labour", 1.69624012002177, 0.0168487944360284,
1, "E14000709", "Gateshead", "Ian Mearns", "Labour", 1.66906531109864, 0.0172558259631681,
0, "E14000711", "Gillingham and Rainham", "Rehman Chishti", "Conservative", 1.6368660901333, 0.014974006713526,
0, "E14000714", "Grantham and Stamford", "Gareth Davies", "Conservative", 1.65988284456075, 0.0151523928885418,
1, "E14000715", "Gravesham", "Adam Holloway", "Conservative", 1.63047172783497, 0.0154869334469746,
1, "E14000718", "Greenwich and Woolwich", "Matthew Pennycook", "Labour", 1.56291852900651, 0.0233130775151794,
1, "E14000719", "Guildford", "Angela Richardson", "Conservative", 1.55477398367304, 0.0162146174845488,
1, "E14000720", "Hackney North and Stoke Newington", "Ms Diane Abbott", "Labour", 1.5674222667237, 0.0221249664276444,
1, "E14000723", "Halifax", "Holly Lynch", "Labour", 1.73176724193978, 0.0170921612978036,
1, "E14000725", "Halton", "Derek Twigg", "Labour", 1.66906804048729, 0.0158532017552633,
1, "E14000726", "Hammersmith", "Andy Slaughter", "Labour", 1.57285121229738, 0.0197560490896586,
1, "E14000727", "Hampstead and Kilburn", "Tulip Siddiq", "Labour", 1.58483669838098, 0.0235744993042627,
0, "E14000728", "Harborough", "Neil O'Brien", "Conservative", 1.68077663582132, 0.0140764012746186,
1, "E14000729", "Harlow", "Robert Halfon", "Conservative", 1.63822569773647, 0.0163763740354049,
1, "E14000730", "Harrogate and Knaresborough", "Andrew Jones", "Conservative", 1.62676061395727, 0.0158513483662331,
0, "E14000731", "Harrow East", "Bob Blackman", "Conservative", 1.74671530794118, 0.0172870981978783,
1, "E14000732", "Harrow West", "Gareth Thomas", "Labour (Co-op)", 1.73836121933461, 0.0208232114542784,
1, "E14000733", "Hartlepool", "Jill Mortimer", "Conservative", 1.69489820563589, 0.0166473241834923,
1, "E14000734", "Harwich and North Essex", "Sir Bernard Jenkin", "Conservative", 1.61378075254456, 0.0141421690539764,
0, "E14000735", "Hastings and Rye", "Sally-Ann Hart", "Conservative", 1.6834065194215, 0.0168080531591861,
1, "E14000737", "Hayes and Harlington", "John McDonnell", "Labour", 1.8242682076087, 0.0212774919583365,
1, "E14000739", "Hemel Hempstead", "Sir Mike Penning", "Conservative", 1.5790480288626, 0.0150487961421556,
1, "E14000740", "Hemsworth", "Jon Trickett", "Labour", 1.71124069535702, 0.0152464796604816,
1, "E14000741", "Hendon", "Dr Matthew Offord", "Conservative", 1.70011259833133, 0.0196949069973179,
1, "E14000742", "Henley", "John Howell", "Conservative", 1.56957696350852, 0.0137974002413856,
1, "E14000744", "Hertford and Stortford", "Julie Marson", "Conservative", 1.52955345012038, 0.0158682447818728,
1, "E14000747", "Heywood and Middleton", "Chris Clarkson", "Conservative", 1.69615222006244, 0.0152235073310865,
1, "E14000749", "Hitchin and Harpenden", "Bim Afolami", "Conservative", 1.53887454161912, 0.0175330337701284,
1, "E14000750", "Holborn and St Pancras", "Keir Starmer", "Labour", 1.56519533146138, 0.0248933041151862,
0, "E14000751", "Hornchurch and Upminster", "Julia Lopez", "Conservative", 1.66364948380536, 0.0182896506203607,
1, "E14000752", "Hornsey and Wood Green", "Catherine West", "Labour", 1.60639582290952, 0.0196797011634671,
0, "E14000753", "Horsham", "Jeremy Quin", "Conservative", 1.55366648537131, 0.013406713097737,
1, "E14000754", "Houghton and Sunderland South", "Bridget Phillipson", "Labour", 1.68288127504648, 0.0151420059017614,
1, "E14000755", "Hove", "Peter Kyle", "Labour", 1.56398617027675, 0.0197136365992393,
1, "E14000756", "Huddersfield", "Mr Barry Sheerman", "Labour (Co-op)", 1.71145508728662, 0.015020675459969,
1, "E14000757", "Huntingdon", "Mr Jonathan Djanogly", "Conservative", 1.59685454071308, 0.0148797233836314,
1, "E14000758", "Hyndburn", "Sara Britcliffe", "Conservative", 1.7224173365258, 0.0149371269014244,
1, "E14000760", "Ilford South", "Sam Tarry", "Labour", 1.8501322844723, 0.0217839983605906,
0, "E14000761", "Ipswich", "Tom Hunt", "Conservative", 1.60375692680902, 0.016713174966494,
1, "E14000763", "Islington North", "Jeremy Corbyn", "Independent", 1.51674760667443, 0.0209622431813929,
1, "E14000765", "Jarrow", "Kate Osborne", "Labour", 1.69218579312255, 0.0143086216022374,
1, "E14000766", "Keighley", "Robbie Moore", "Conservative", 1.67626520262327, 0.0151086322473891,
0, "E14000767", "Kenilworth and Southam", "Sir Jeremy Wright", "Conservative", 1.55990967667532, 0.0157568022705874,
1, "E14000768", "Kensington", "Felicity Buchan", "Conservative", 1.5019605188391, 0.0244559148781755,
0, "E14000769", "Kettering", "Mr Philip Hollobone", "Conservative", 1.64043889260582, 0.0164224835129192,
1, "E14000773", "Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle", "Emma Hardy", "Labour", 1.69230791102677, 0.0192001589209311,
1, "E14000775", "Knowsley", "Sir George Howarth", "Labour", 1.74379812211344, 0.0188363753063707,
1, "E14000776", "Lancaster and Fleetwood", "Cat Smith", "Labour", 1.65022392502694, 0.0182291835813358,
1, "E14000777", "Leeds Central", "Hilary Benn", "Labour", 1.64611654244374, 0.0205359580200114,
1, "E14000778", "Leeds East", "Richard Burgon", "Labour", 1.71018497789468, 0.0159141326508641,
1, "E14000779", "Leeds North East", "Fabian Hamilton", "Labour", 1.66948091783449, 0.0203917303105251,
1, "E14000781", "Leeds West", "Rachel Reeves", "Labour", 1.66973166835242, 0.0170025616001988,
1, "E14000783", "Leicester South", "Jonathan Ashworth", "Labour (Co-op)", 1.73164320970973, 0.0205266349029926,
0, "E14000785", "Leigh", "James Grundy", "Conservative", 1.6831309031173, 0.0167493223337068,
0, "E14000786", "Lewes", "Maria Caulfield", "Conservative", 1.62190060040312, 0.0152910720381843,
1, "E14000787", "Lewisham East", "Janet Daby", "Labour", 1.64468393494802, 0.019051526309411,
1, "E14000788", "Lewisham West and Penge", "Ellie Reeves", "Labour", 1.59602266074463, 0.0215564585420981,
1, "E14000789", "Lewisham, Deptford", "Vicky Foxcroft", "Labour", 1.57734811280933, 0.0231949579315894,
1, "E14000790", "Leyton and Wanstead", "John Cryer", "Labour", 1.67272021466534, 0.0205406085953722,
0, "E14000792", "Lincoln", "Karl McCartney", "Conservative", 1.67013063798616, 0.0174459154903285,
1, "E14000793", "Liverpool, Riverside", "Kim Johnson", "Labour", 1.5609514487569, 0.0246311498339752,
1, "E14000794", "Liverpool, Walton", "Dan Carden", "Labour", 1.70148629104159, 0.0250873943998996,
1, "E14000795", "Liverpool, Wavertree", "Paula Barker", "Labour", 1.67715765426003, 0.0172597107637331,
1, "E14000796", "Liverpool, West Derby", "Ian Byrne", "Labour", 1.76611500282114, 0.0171658431126136,
0, "E14000797", "Loughborough", "Jane Hunt", "Conservative", 1.6453287939113, 0.0152252486718455,
1, "E14000798", "Louth and Horncastle", "Victoria Atkins", "Conservative", 1.66884776591555, 0.015589843948913,
1, "E14000800", "Luton North", "Sarah Owen", "Labour", 1.7494782235568, 0.0180475638049493,
1, "E14000801", "Luton South", "Rachel Hopkins", "Labour", 1.72806128770552, 0.0170586913001868,
0, "E14000802", "Macclesfield", "David Rutley", "Conservative", 1.60249879958193, 0.0140479556868127,
1, "E14000803", "Maidenhead", "Mrs Theresa May", "Conservative", 1.5716125373362, 0.0146816177378501,
1, "E14000807", "Manchester Central", "Lucy Powell", "Labour (Co-op)", 1.61504971080043, 0.0258484778375223,
1, "E14000808", "Manchester, Gorton", "Afzal Khan", "Labour", 1.7362287564005, 0.0209630022557432,
1, "E14000809", "Manchester, Withington", "Jeff Smith", "Labour", 1.59442847811366, 0.0205478233897962,
0, "E14000811", "Meon Valley", "Mrs Flick Drummond", "Conservative", 1.60620512479302, 0.0144967652160165,
0, "E14000815", "Mid Dorset and North Poole", "Michael Tomlinson", "Conservative", 1.65240360337772, 0.0154249281980825,
1, "E14000816", "Mid Norfolk", "George Freeman", "Conservative", 1.62273912546229, 0.017393433300612,
0, "E14000820", "Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland", "Mr Simon Clarke", "Conservative", 1.70377303378798, 0.0167343172000322,
1, "E14000821", "Milton Keynes North", "Ben Everitt", "Conservative", 1.58071852599938, 0.0160600521470169,
1, "E14000822", "Milton Keynes South", "Iain Stewart", "Conservative", 1.61842785160371, 0.0135342265595218,
1, "E14000823", "Mitcham and Morden", "Siobhain McDonagh", "Labour", 1.69486843649645, 0.0195821042940326,
1, "E14000824", "Mole Valley", "Sir Paul Beresford", "Conservative", 1.56413020009579, 0.0152727365735331,
0, "E14000828", "New Forest West", "Sir Desmond Swayne", "Conservative", 1.61888422634775, 0.0147485597814468,
1, "E14000829", "Newark", "Robert Jenrick", "Conservative", 1.64038394364472, 0.0159329092549441,
1, "E14000830", "Newbury", "Laura Farris", "Conservative", 1.56356206836386, 0.0167014358496023,
1, "E14000831", "Newcastle upon Tyne Central", "Chi Onwurah", "Labour", 1.66835611966567, 0.0199904767399241,
1, "E14000832", "Newcastle upon Tyne East", "Mr Nicholas Brown", "Independent", 1.60726633538543, 0.0225809742112058,
1, "E14000833", "Newcastle upon Tyne North", "Catherine McKinnell", "Labour", 1.63677365037857, 0.0156740220552581,
1, "E14000834", "Newcastle-under-Lyme", "Aaron Bell", "Conservative", 1.65193224834615, 0.0165649296504206,
1, "E14000836", "Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford", "Yvette Cooper", "Labour", 1.68981141737155, 0.0137231111952396,
1, "E14000837", "North Cornwall", "Scott Mann", "Conservative", 1.67177636284937, 0.0156372972769098,
1, "E14000838", "North Devon", "Selaine Saxby", "Conservative", 1.66772765484175, 0.0152224390244594,
1, "E14000839", "North Dorset", "Simon Hoare", "Conservative", 1.62037468400778, 0.0131806977236918,
0, "E14000841", "North East Bedfordshire", "Richard Fuller", "Conservative", 1.57154053560315, 0.0154539945497819,
0, "E14000842", "North East Cambridgeshire", "Steve Barclay", "Conservative", 1.63106433818282, 0.0166822037968191,
0, "E14000844", "North East Hampshire", "Mr Ranil Jayawardena", "Conservative", 1.59520450467683, 0.0156896635391567,
1, "E14000845", "North East Hertfordshire", "Sir Oliver Heald", "Conservative", 1.51833086255053, 0.0135710081748314,
0, "E14000846", "North East Somerset", "Mr Jacob Rees-Mogg", "Conservative", 1.6363590179419, 0.015968030537675,
1, "E14000848", "North Norfolk", "Duncan Baker", "Conservative", 1.63592270750596, 0.0153554573354452,
1, "E14000849", "North Shropshire", "Helen Morgan", "Liberal Democrat", 1.63469841016864, 0.0161092372178315,
0, "E14000850", "North Somerset", "Dr Liam Fox", "Conservative", 1.56454736879115, 0.0161945077810852,
1, "E14000851", "North Swindon", "Justin Tomlinson", "Conservative", 1.63609531543023, 0.0157987182325104,
1, "E14000853", "North Tyneside", "Mary Glindon", "Labour", 1.67801762179172, 0.0145942107729393,
1, "E14000856", "North West Durham", "Mr Richard Holden", "Conservative", 1.70630639870241, 0.0160194140077956,
0, "E14000858", "North West Leicestershire", "Andrew Bridgen", "Conservative", 1.63593720285586, 0.0158446428119298,
1, "E14000859", "North West Norfolk", "James Wild", "Conservative", 1.6267220125075, 0.015869505956501,
0, "E14000860", "North Wiltshire", "James Gray", "Conservative", 1.61474303014757, 0.0151352771419875,
0, "E14000862", "Northampton South", "Andrew Lewer", "Conservative", 1.66670811237705, 0.0154988743655583,
1, "E14000864", "Norwich South", "Clive Lewis", "Labour", 1.53676578003042, 0.0164761037441057,
1, "E14000865", "Nottingham East", "Nadia Whittome", "Labour", 1.67207733853982, 0.0218198136950295,
1, "E14000866", "Nottingham North", "Alex Norris", "Labour (Co-op)", 1.72392007381801, 0.01660334243527,
1, "E14000867", "Nottingham South", "Lilian Greenwood", "Labour", 1.62584617492807, 0.0232765931754546,
0, "E14000872", "Orpington", "Gareth Bacon", "Conservative", 1.60587600855842, 0.01614019410447,
1, "E14000873", "Oxford East", "Anneliese Dodds", "Labour (Co-op)", 1.58047431751684, 0.0189715842076622,
1, "E14000874", "Oxford West and Abingdon", "Layla Moran", "Liberal Democrat", 1.62069632912536, 0.0199265503854388,
1, "E14000875", "Pendle", "Andrew Stephenson", "Conservative", 1.75210048609834, 0.0135958430598981,
0, "E14000876", "Penistone and Stocksbridge", "Miriam Cates", "Conservative", 1.6331953374905, 0.0147361690256804,
1, "E14000877", "Penrith and The Border", "Dr Neil Hudson", "Conservative", 1.62484416738887, 0.0153343253166402,
1, "E14000880", "Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport", "Luke Pollard", "Labour (Co-op)", 1.65837236265704, 0.016698951595608,
0, "E14000881", "Poole", "Sir Robert Syms", "Conservative", 1.62280006502028, 0.0157292126666636,
1, "E14000882", "Poplar and Limehouse", "Apsana Begum", "Labour", 1.63613431791082, 0.0230963790148153,
1, "E14000883", "Portsmouth North", "Penny Mordaunt", "Conservative", 1.66505896850615, 0.0137860778528837,
1, "E14000884", "Portsmouth South", "Stephen Morgan", "Labour", 1.61413938834018, 0.0190081479906507,
1, "E14000885", "Preston", "Sir Mark Hendrick", "Labour (Co-op)", 1.73006350743809, 0.0163876129841006,
1, "E14000886", "Pudsey", "Stuart Andrew", "Conservative", 1.60429056447341, 0.0159932861326722,
1, "E14000887", "Putney", "Fleur Anderson", "Labour", 1.48941866718323, 0.0203707549814327,
1, "E14000889", "Reading East", "Matt Rodda", "Labour", 1.59777578274582, 0.0156853416733051,
0, "E14000892", "Redditch", "Rachel Maclean", "Conservative", 1.68251768081128, 0.0137998893787533,
1, "E14000893", "Reigate", "Crispin Blunt", "Conservative", 1.587162554835, 0.0161133960217745,
1, "E14000896", "Richmond Park", "Sarah Olney", "Liberal Democrat", 1.56078697919458, 0.0190997734787672,
1, "E14000898", "Rochester and Strood", "Kelly Tolhurst", "Conservative", 1.61026959511187, 0.0150331655251205,
1, "E14000901", "Romsey and Southampton North", "Caroline Nokes", "Conservative", 1.58856282450506, 0.0159538043809646,
0, "E14000903", "Rother Valley", "Alexander Stafford", "Conservative", 1.65098817703088, 0.0139140047072754,
1, "E14000904", "Rotherham", "Sarah Champion", "Labour", 1.68002529284762, 0.0176412117916833,
1, "E14000906", "Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner", "David Simmonds", "Conservative", 1.6586216625812, 0.0164762877830086,
0, "E14000907", "Runnymede and Weybridge", "Dr Ben Spencer", "Conservative", 1.55182279945379, 0.0152378969502637,
1, "E14000908", "Rushcliffe", "Ruth Edwards", "Conservative", 1.61731533473442, 0.0174466049725258,
1, "E14000909", "Rutland and Melton", "Alicia Kearns", "Conservative", 1.62089612138372, 0.0143962328712633,
0, "E14000910", "Saffron Walden", "Kemi Badenoch", "Conservative", 1.55844256045415, 0.0141629048269326,
1, "E14000911", "Salford and Eccles", "Rebecca Long Bailey", "Labour", 1.63700244586495, 0.0208291074640679,
0, "E14000913", "Scarborough and Whitby", "Sir Robert Goodwill", "Conservative", 1.67203956812027, 0.0165920587490973,
1, "E14000914", "Scunthorpe", "Holly Mumby-Croft", "Conservative", 1.69096880313456, 0.0151252040083529,
1, "E14000915", "Sedgefield", "Paul Howell", "Conservative", 1.70395089761148, 0.0142824935895699,
1, "E14000916", "Sefton Central", "Bill Esterson", "Labour", 1.66122276364136, 0.0147139653668516,
1, "E14000918", "Sevenoaks", "Laura Trott", "Conservative", 1.58772830302586, 0.0172774004212378,
1, "E14000919", "Sheffield Central", "Paul Blomfield", "Labour", 1.55456748406498, 0.0255025229740975,
1, "E14000920", "Sheffield South East", "Mr Clive Betts", "Labour", 1.72863348710089, 0.0149980227600247,
1, "E14000921", "Sheffield, Brightside and Hillsborough", "Gill Furniss", "Labour", 1.71786535009918, 0.0153715302610136,
1, "E14000922", "Sheffield, Hallam", "Olivia Blake", "Labour", 1.60138270292555, 0.0195840069432669,
1, "E14000923", "Sheffield, Heeley", "Louise Haigh", "Labour", 1.62874871466098, 0.0157854773984812,
1, "E14000924", "Sherwood", "Mark Spencer", "Conservative", 1.62984157008395, 0.0151363967425846,
0, "E14000925", "Shipley", "Philip Davies", "Conservative", 1.64006442349321, 0.0167748474575258,
0, "E14000926", "Shrewsbury and Atcham", "Daniel Kawczynski", "Conservative", 1.65650916704831, 0.0150575283648312,
0, "E14000927", "Sittingbourne and Sheppey", "Gordon Henderson", "Conservative", 1.64628138473464, 0.0162488423392906,
1, "E14000928", "Skipton and Ripon", "Julian Smith", "Conservative", 1.60286853756864, 0.016096269701677,
0, "E14000929", "Sleaford and North Hykeham", "Dr Caroline Johnson", "Conservative", 1.71764880216248, 0.0187552308579078,
1, "E14000930", "Slough", "Mr Tanmanjeet Singh Dhesi", "Labour", 1.72052450793239, 0.0168659714039181,
0, "E14000933", "South Basildon and East Thurrock", "Stephen Metcalfe", "Conservative", 1.62775116153584, 0.0147889817250614,
1, "E14000934", "South Cambridgeshire", "Anthony Browne", "Conservative", 1.56869111305196, 0.016639048901069,
0, "E14000935", "South Derbyshire", "Mrs Heather Wheeler", "Conservative", 1.63110980192302, 0.0179466303248468,
0, "E14000939", "South Holland and The Deepings", "Sir John Hayes", "Conservative", 1.67543817502196, 0.0161271659057432,
0, "E14000941", "South Norfolk", "Mr Richard Bacon", "Conservative", 1.59960089296104, 0.0140295373503124,
0, "E14000942", "South Northamptonshire", "Andrea Leadsom", "Conservative", 1.63536278369439, 0.0138666786941114,
1, "E14000944", "South Shields", "Mrs Emma Lewell-Buck", "Labour", 1.7013786396252, 0.0161337103451045,
1, "E14000948", "South Thanet", "Craig Mackinlay", "Conservative", 1.65975723478295, 0.0174225302535544,
0, "E14000950", "South West Devon", "Sir Gary Streeter", "Conservative", 1.66140315585884, 0.0143500093875764,
0, "E14000951", "South West Hertfordshire", "Mr Gagan Mohindra", "Conservative", 1.53050004913314, 0.0216922898131535,
0, "E14000955", "Southampton, Itchen", "Royston Smith", "Conservative", 1.57331577199523, 0.016836397300652,
1, "E14000956", "Southampton, Test", "Dr Alan Whitehead", "Labour", 1.5738630557418, 0.0180626154599655,
0, "E14000958", "Southport", "Damien Moore", "Conservative", 1.66510349022152, 0.0166645626951418,
1, "E14000960", "St Albans", "Daisy Cooper", "Liberal Democrat", 1.58529376849422, 0.0211226229903245,
0, "E14000961", "St Austell and Newquay", "Steve Double", "Conservative", 1.66726750874105, 0.0156932643729822,
0, "E14000964", "St Ives", "Derek Thomas", "Conservative", 1.68616937659355, 0.0173820238671728,
1, "E14000965", "Stafford", "Theo Clarke", "Conservative", 1.66486687960725, 0.014947223986683,
1, "E14000969", "Stockport", "Navendu Mishra", "Labour", 1.69454026083728, 0.0152110703965187,
1, "E14000970", "Stockton North", "Alex Cunningham", "Labour", 1.7439971737081, 0.0158978818734819,
0, "E14000971", "Stockton South", "Matt Vickers", "Conservative", 1.65878762338729, 0.0169412487694328,
0, "E14000975", "Stone", "Sir William Cash", "Conservative", 1.62094007748498, 0.0161708627356689,
1, "E14000978", "Streatham", "Bell Ribeiro-Addy", "Labour", 1.59098674006068, 0.0218048594557008,
1, "E14000979", "Stretford and Urmston", "Kate Green", "Labour", 1.64273698225682, 0.0175318723150319,
1, "E14000980", "Stroud", "Siobhan Baillie", "Conservative", 1.58972586670755, 0.0151042409951835,
1, "E14000982", "Sunderland Central", "Julie Elliott", "Labour", 1.70400963508726, 0.0149400432429121,
1, "E14000985", "Sutton Coldfield", "Mr Andrew Mitchell", "Conservative", 1.63662943660831, 0.0158567195041421,
0, "E14000987", "Tatton", "Esther McVey", "Conservative", 1.5748234367006, 0.0133105484627024,
1, "E14000988", "Taunton Deane", "Rebecca Pow", "Conservative", 1.65449051237716, 0.0140578893390989,
0, "E14000990", "Tewkesbury", "Mr Laurence Robertson", "Conservative", 1.64291286823424, 0.0147465527203533,
1, "E14000991", "The Cotswolds", "Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown", "Conservative", 1.58961145272692, 0.0131748401141607,
0, "E14000992", "The Wrekin", "Mark Pritchard", "Conservative", 1.61331351574993, 0.0156355956539723,
1, "E14000994", "Thornbury and Yate", "Luke Hall", "Conservative", 1.63045889546928, 0.0151626128890332,
0, "E14000995", "Thurrock", "Jackie Doyle-Price", "Conservative", 1.62705642081766, 0.0168524135573771,
1, "E14000996", "Tiverton and Honiton", "Richard Foord", "Liberal Democrat", 1.63185095619387, 0.0135431689483882,
1, "E14000998", "Tooting", "Dr Rosena Allin-Khan", "Labour", 1.52219941542275, 0.0192114834370277,
1, "E14001001", "Totnes", "Anthony Mangnall", "Conservative", 1.66399479085584, 0.0139833275429596,
1, "E14001002", "Tottenham", "Mr David Lammy", "Labour", 1.71346729217304, 0.0259936061091914,
1, "E14001004", "Tunbridge Wells", "Greg Clark", "Conservative", 1.55759036573982, 0.0158909277825809,
1, "E14001005", "Twickenham", "Munira Wilson", "Liberal Democrat", 1.61365973045977, 0.0203164348166709,
1, "E14001006", "Tynemouth", "Sir Alan Campbell", "Labour", 1.63354417363787, 0.015503684365615,
1, "E14001008", "Vauxhall", "Florence Eshalomi", "Labour (Co-op)", 1.52452755531303, 0.0235700717468693,
1, "E14001009", "Wakefield", "Simon Lightwood", "Labour (Co-op)", 1.68048514951943, 0.014098207949885,
0, "E14001011", "Walsall North", "Eddie Hughes", "Conservative", 1.74165997133126, 0.0188881999374376,
1, "E14001012", "Walsall South", "Valerie Vaz", "Labour", 1.72806487231437, 0.0155426774503489,
1, "E14001013", "Walthamstow", "Stella Creasy", "Labour (Co-op)", 1.65577849696972, 0.0214478264317682,
1, "E14001014", "Wansbeck", "Ian Lavery", "Labour", 1.66829362395269, 0.0149239047039153,
1, "E14001015", "Wantage", "David Johnston", "Conservative", 1.58991702324448, 0.0163189278627156,
1, "E14001016", "Warley", "John Spellar", "Labour", 1.81932343648796, 0.0190404512872929,
1, "E14001017", "Warrington North", "Charlotte Nichols", "Labour", 1.65655301108555, 0.0143739392361175,
1, "E14001018", "Warrington South", "Andy Carter", "Conservative", 1.65437815983916, 0.015683536415072,
1, "E14001019", "Warwick and Leamington", "Matt Western", "Labour", 1.58341528796878, 0.0171539806095183,
1, "E14001020", "Washington and Sunderland West", "Mrs Sharon Hodgson", "Labour", 1.7014482544469, 0.016809960926832,
0, "E14001022", "Waveney", "Peter Aldous", "Conservative", 1.64217127954782, 0.0158489994898918,
1, "E14001024", "Weaver Vale", "Mike Amesbury", "Labour", 1.65866346411395, 0.0144000993525858,
0, "E14001025", "Wellingborough", "Mr Peter Bone", "Conservative", 1.65502228392358, 0.015034730170556,
1, "E14001027", "Welwyn Hatfield", "Grant Shapps", "Conservative", 1.54721012884467, 0.0159954816332833,
1, "E14001028", "Wentworth and Dearne", "John Healey", "Labour", 1.70897545932442, 0.0145943299422176,
1, "E14001029", "West Bromwich East", "Nicola Richards", "Conservative", 1.7570587702874, 0.0153906331674785,
1, "E14001030", "West Bromwich West", "Shaun Bailey", "Conservative", 1.75902543523074, 0.0199373127282458,
0, "E14001031", "West Dorset", "Chris Loder", "Conservative", 1.65487820067022, 0.0147533597713349,
1, "E14001032", "West Ham", "Ms Lyn Brown", "Labour", 1.64428522846113, 0.0293415185298333,
1, "E14001039", "Wigan", "Lisa Nandy", "Labour", 1.75518301936321, 0.0167442114187632,
1, "E14001040", "Wimbledon", "Stephen Hammond", "Conservative", 1.59005376806918, 0.017823414339442,
1, "E14001041", "Winchester", "Steve Brine", "Conservative", 1.58588154837808, 0.0146616990208891,
1, "E14001043", "Wirral South", "Alison McGovern", "Labour", 1.65047876327491, 0.0166452772197036,
1, "E14001044", "Wirral West", "Margaret Greenwood", "Labour", 1.61366041148314, 0.0152477955837016,
0, "E14001046", "Witney", "Robert Courts", "Conservative", 1.63407439380016, 0.0155227480707965,
0, "E14001049", "Wolverhampton North East", "Jane Stevenson", "Conservative", 1.72154189111932, 0.0168592971357634,
1, "E14001050", "Wolverhampton South East", "Pat McFadden", "Labour", 1.80654953763629, 0.0180595297551786,
0, "E14001051", "Wolverhampton South West", "Stuart Anderson", "Conservative", 1.72239548736445, 0.0162668200046053,
0, "E14001052", "Worcester", "Mr Robin Walker", "Conservative", 1.64508928193826, 0.0152592653890018,
0, "E14001053", "Workington", "Mark Jenkinson", "Conservative", 1.63377565502366, 0.0129594574630206,
1, "E14001054", "Worsley and Eccles South", "Barbara Keeley", "Labour", 1.70126685365121, 0.0156103504028476,
1, "E14001056", "Wycombe", "Mr Steve Baker", "Conservative", 1.66642456989186, 0.0146839152456373,
1, "E14001062", "York Outer", "Julian Sturdy", "Conservative", 1.63192287767737, 0.0145285396513204,
1, "S14000009", "Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross", "Jamie Stone", "Liberal Democrat", 1.69184971463981, 0.0165173112426103,
1, "S14000024", "Edinburgh South", "Ian Murray", "Labour", 1.58621127392795, 0.0196393175208713,
1, "S14000026", "Edinburgh West", "Christine Jardine", "Liberal Democrat", 1.64084208894919, 0.0177769283095306,
1, "S14000049", "North East Fife", "Wendy Chamberlain", "Liberal Democrat", 1.64076881063787, 0.0175111806243604,
1, "S14000058", "West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine", "Andrew Bowie", "Conservative", 1.60210904890942, 0.0174499007771931,
1, "W07000042", "Delyn", "Rob Roberts", "Independent", 1.66278963823711, 0.0136576357183951,
1, "W07000043", "Alyn and Deeside", "Mark Tami", "Labour", 1.67550283402645, 0.0134018259630337,
1, "W07000044", "Wrexham", "Sarah Atherton", "Conservative", 1.63892628343106, 0.0162182196480519,
1, "W07000045", "Llanelli", "Dame Nia Griffith", "Labour", 1.66635690905369, 0.0175441951686574,
1, "W07000047", "Swansea West", "Geraint Davies", "Labour (Co-op)", 1.63631416858631, 0.0169345653692759,
1, "W07000048", "Swansea East", "Carolyn Harris", "Labour", 1.66936024803677, 0.016213582719176,
1, "W07000049", "Aberavon", "Stephen Kinnock", "Labour", 1.69131379639316, 0.0168759497183367,
1, "W07000050", "Cardiff Central", "Jo Stevens", "Labour", 1.59824827628778, 0.0212946010065996,
1, "W07000051", "Cardiff North", "Anna McMorrin", "Labour", 1.59537698680238, 0.0172154296402525,
1, "W07000052", "Rhondda", "Chris Bryant", "Labour", 1.73482561453216, 0.0183604772085294,
1, "W07000053", "Torfaen", "Nick Thomas-Symonds", "Labour", 1.66056247962131, 0.0170799579008874,
1, "W07000054", "Monmouth", "David T C Davies", "Conservative", 1.61448085089193, 0.0156235397855818,
1, "W07000055", "Newport East", "Jessica Morden", "Labour", 1.66906482102214, 0.0168132733008389,
1, "W07000056", "Newport West", "Ruth Jones", "Labour", 1.67861929908804, 0.0155490056314557,
1, "W07000057", "Arfon", "Hywel Williams", "Plaid Cymru", 1.53805148503066, 0.0268388660975256,
0, "W07000058", "Aberconwy", "Robin Millar", "Conservative", 1.63673065678317, 0.0154504428914114,
0, "W07000059", "Clwyd West", "Mr David Jones", "Conservative", 1.64524313167225, 0.017273545854526,
1, "W07000060", "Vale of Clwyd", "Dr James Davies", "Conservative", 1.69861986023538, 0.0129127632024503,
1, "W07000061", "Dwyfor Meirionnydd", "Liz Saville Roberts", "Plaid Cymru", 1.54627951329734, 0.0265921683229549,
1, "W07000062", "Clwyd South", "Simon Baynes", "Conservative", 1.62768857766232, 0.0150582540852043,
1, "W07000063", "Montgomeryshire", "Craig Williams", "Conservative", 1.64858092243366, 0.0152698518022205,
1, "W07000064", "Ceredigion", "Ben Lake", "Plaid Cymru", 1.5657683474984, 0.0223091171470333,
1, "W07000066", "Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire", "Simon Hart", "Conservative", 1.61945596734233, 0.0144143394893443,
1, "W07000067", "Carmarthen East and Dinefwr", "Jonathan Edwards", "Independent", 1.58418993789673, 0.0230339147745543,
1, "W07000068", "Brecon and Radnorshire", "Fay Jones", "Conservative", 1.6617427098854, 0.0146635234236755,
1, "W07000070", "Cynon Valley", "Beth Winter", "Labour", 1.7161567985595, 0.0184041700210969,
1, "W07000072", "Blaenau Gwent", "Nick Smith", "Labour", 1.69700052173612, 0.016037557078803,
1, "W07000073", "Bridgend", "Dr Jamie Wallis", "Conservative", 1.64264358770984, 0.0159405596293685,
1, "W07000074", "Ogmore", "Chris Elmore", "Labour", 1.67649961323121, 0.0161739296788946,
1, "W07000075", "Pontypridd", "Alex Davies-Jones", "Labour", 1.63470014230838, 0.017228208277379,
1, "W07000076", "Caerphilly", "Wayne David", "Labour", 1.67478793997313, 0.0165049177995102,
0, "W07000078", "Vale of Glamorgan", "Alun Cairns", "Conservative", 1.61269334854135, 0.0162190247741216,
1, "W07000080", "Cardiff South and Penarth", "Stephen Doughty", "Labour (Co-op)", 1.64149132312185, 0.017344464731592
)
dat <- dat %>%
mutate(party_short = dplyr::recode(Party,
"Conservative" = "Cons.",
"Labour" = "Lab.",
"Labour (Co-op)" = "Lab.",
"Green Party" = "Grn",
"Independent" = "Indep.",
"Plaid Cymru" = "Plaid",
"Liberal Democrat" = "LDem"))
p1 <- ggplot(dat, aes(x = ConstyOpposition, y = aye_vote)) +
geom_point(aes(fill = party_short),
position = position_jitter(width = 0, height = 0.1),
colour = "#333333",
shape = 21, size = 2.5, alpha = .75) +
scale_fill_manual("Party",
values = c("#0087DC", # Con
"#6AB023", # Green
"grey", # Indep
"#E4003B", # Labour
"#FAA61A", # LDem
"#005B54") # Plaid
) +
scale_x_continuous("Opposition to abortion in constituency\n(1-4 scale)") +
scale_y_continuous("Vote in favour of buffer zones",
breaks = c(0, 1),
labels = c("No", "Aye")) +
stat_smooth(method="glm", se=F, method.args = list(family="binomial")) +
labs(title = "MPs from abortion-opposing constituencies more, not less likely to support buffer zones",
subtitle = "Data for mainland GB MPs; constituency opposition based on MRP analysis of British Election Study") +
theme_ipsum_rc() +
guides(fill = guide_legend(nrow = 1)) +
theme(legend.position = "bottom")
ggsave(p1, file = "all-mainland-gb-mps.png", width = 1200/120, height = 960/120, bg = "white")
p2 <- ggplot(dat %>% filter(party_short == "Cons."), aes(x = ConstyOpposition, y = aye_vote)) +
geom_point(aes(fill = party_short),
position = position_jitter(width = 0, height = 0.1),
colour = "#333333",
shape = 21, size = 2.5, alpha = .75) +
scale_fill_manual("Party",
values = c("#0087DC", # Con
"#6AB023", # Green
"grey", # Indep
"#E4003B", # Labour
"#FAA61A", # LDem
"#005B54") # Plaid
) +
scale_x_continuous("Opposition to abortion in constituency\n(1-4 scale)") +
scale_y_continuous("Vote in favour of buffer zones",
breaks = c(0, 1),
labels = c("No", "Aye")) +
stat_smooth(method="glm", se=F, method.args = list(family="binomial")) +
labs(title = "For Conservative MPs, a weak link between constituency opinion and voting against buffer zones",
subtitle = "Data for Conservative MPs; constituency opposition based on MRP analysis of British Election Study") +
theme_ipsum_rc() +
guides(fill = guide_legend(nrow = 1)) +
theme(legend.position = "bottom")
ggsave(p2, file = "con-mps-only.png", width = 1200/120, height = 960/120, bg = "white")
library(brms)
### Going to de-mean constituency opposition
dat <- dat %>%
mutate(ConstyOpposition_sc = ConstyOpposition - mean(ConstyOpposition, na.rm = TRUE))
### What is a reasonable prior on the coefficient? let's assume min-max change (0.5 units) moves you from tiny probability of voting aye (0.01)to huge probability of voting aye (0.99).
### That's qlogis(0.99) - qlogis(.01) = 9.2 units, so a one unit shift could do 18.4 units.
### But that's the most extreme case, so we'll put that two SDs away, so we're back to 9.2 units.
### What is a reasonable prior on the intercept? We know there's division, so in the absolute worst case it's a 1/365 split. qlogis(1/365) = -5.9, so let's do an SD of half that
bmod <- brm(aye_vote ~ ConstyOpposition_sc,
data = dat %>% filter(party_short == "Cons."),
cores = 4,
chains = 4,
prior = set_prior("normal(0, 9.2)", class = "b") +
set_prior("normal(0, 3)", class = "Intercept"),
family = bernoulli)
### Compare with a frequentist model
fmod <- glm(aye_vote ~ ConstyOpposition_sc,
data = dat %>% filter(party_short == "Cons."),
family = binomial(link = "logit"))
pp <- posterior_epred(bmod,
newdata = data.frame(ConstyOpposition_sc = c(0, 0.5)))
summary(apply(pp, 1, diff))
quantile(apply(pp, 1, diff), probs = c(0.05, 1 - 0.05))
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