Quick analysis of BES wave 25 questions on local election turnout

20231111-voterid.R

library(tidyverse)
library(haven)

### Replace your file location here
bes <- read_dta("~/Dropbox/bes_data/BES2019_W25_v25.0.dta")

### What was turnout like in the panel?
bes |>
    filter(!is.na(localTurnoutRetro)) |>
    group_by(localTurnoutRetro) |>
    summarize(sumwts = sum(wt)) |>
    ungroup() |>
    mutate(prop = sumwts / sum(sumwts))

###
### 55% of BES respondents in areas which had local elections reported voting.
###
### This is higher than the reported turnout of 32.0%
###

###
### Of those who did not vote, 3.3% said their main reason was not having photo ID
###
### This is comparable to Electoral Commission research
###
bes |>
    filter(localTurnoutRetro == 0) |>
    group_by(reasonNonVoter) |>
    summarize(sumwts = sum(wt)) |>
    ungroup() |>
    mutate(prop = sumwts / sum(sumwts)) |>
    arrange(desc(prop))

###
### Of those who did not vote, 1.7% had tried to vote
###
bes |>
    filter(localTurnoutRetro == 0) |>
    group_by(attemptTurnout) |>
    summarize(sumwts = sum(wt)) |>
    ungroup() |>
    mutate(prop = sumwts / sum(sumwts)) |>
    arrange(desc(prop))
    
###
### Of those who tried to vote but could not,
### 25% didn't have valid voter ID

bes |>
    filter(attemptTurnout == 1) |>
    group_by(reasonForTurnaway_2) |>
    summarize(sumwts = sum(wt)) |>
    ungroup() |>
    mutate(prop = sumwts / sum(sumwts)) |>
    arrange(desc(prop))

###
### Of those who tried to vote but could not,
### 18% had voter ID which was not accepted

bes |>
    filter(attemptTurnout == 1) |>
    group_by(reasonForTurnaway_3) |>
    summarize(sumwts = sum(wt)) |>
    ungroup() |>
    mutate(prop = sumwts / sum(sumwts)) |>
    arrange(desc(prop))