Score: 6
Odds:
Islam Makhachev: -430
Arman Tsarukyan: +300
Islam Makhachev has been unstoppable, riding a string of dominant wins over top contenders. His wrestling and ground control break opponents' rhythm, as shown in his submissions against Dustin Poirier and Charles Oliveira. Against Alexander Volkanovski, he also flashed improved striking, landing a head kick knockout in their second meeting. Makhachev's game plan relies on constant forward pressure and clinch control against the fence, often setting up takedowns that drain his opponents. He has a lone career loss by TKO against Adriano Martins, but that was years ago, and since then, he’s sharpened his defense. His recent fights highlight his striking accuracy and strong takedown success rate.
Arman Tsarukyan is a dangerous mix of tireless pace, crisp striking, and relentless grappling. He’s fresh off impressive wins over Charles Oliveira, Beneil Dariush, and Joaquim Silva. He punishes foes who stay too long in boxing range by mixing in hard body kicks and swift takedowns. Even in a scramble, he stays calm, threatening with knees in the clinch or hooking shots off breaks. Despite dropping a close decision to Mateusz Gamrot, Tsarukyan has proven he can outlast top competitors with strong cardio. He rarely stalls once on top, chipping away with ground strikes. However, his takedown defense ratio is lower than expected, occasionally giving up position against experienced wrestlers.
They fought once in 2019, and Islam Makhachev won by unanimous decision. Both showed high-level grappling, with Makhachev’s control dictating most of the action. Tsarukyan defended well and looked composed in scrambles, but Makhachev held top position repeatedly, slowing Tsarukyan’s offense. That experience launched Tsarukyan’s improvement, while Makhachev continued refining his strikes.
- Wrestling Clash: Makhachev’s takedowns (3.19 per fight) match up against Tsarukyan’s 3.25 per fight, so the clinch game will be huge.
- Top Control: Makhachev’s pressure on the mat wore down Dustin Poirier and Charles Oliveira. Tsarukyan does similar work, but Makhachev has already proven he can neutralize Tsarukyan’s scrambles.
- Striking Edges: Tsarukyan throws more volume (6.40 strikes landed per minute) yet absorbs more head strikes than Makhachev does. Makhachev has become more accurate, dropping Volkanovski with a head kick.
- Cardio Impact: Both maintain high intensity late. Makhachev’s calm style conserves energy, while Tsarukyan can sometimes overextend, opening brief opportunities for counters.
WolfTicketsAI factored in these differences using SHAP data:
- odds (+17): Makhachev’s heavy favorite status strongly boosts his score.
- recent_win_perc (+1): Makhachev’s perfect record in his last five fights pushes the model higher.
- striking_defense_percentage (+1): Makhachev’s solid striking defense also raises his rating.
- win_streak_diff (-3) and trueskill (-3): Tsarukyan’s own surge and respectable TrueSkill offset some of Makhachev’s edge, reducing the score a bit.
- Other factors (like recent_significant_striking_output_differential and recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight) favor Tsarukyan slightly, nudging Makhachev’s score down by minor amounts.
- Islam Makhachev: The model has predicted him six times (Poirier, Volkanovski x2, Oliveira, “King” Green, and now Tsarukyan). Every call so far has been correct. That perfect track record builds strong confidence here.
- Arman Tsarukyan: The model picked him six times, correctly on five. A miss happened against Mateusz Gamrot. The rest have been accurate, including wins over Oliveira and Dariush. The single wrong call is a minor concern but indicates Tsarukyan can upset high-level foes.
Islam Makhachev’s disciplined approach, grappling dominance, and improved striking tilt this matchup in his favor. Tsarukyan has leveled up since their last fight and poses serious threats with pace and striking variety. Still, WolfTicketsAI projects Makhachev to win by controlling clinch engagements, avoiding Tsarukyan’s volume, and exploiting top positions once the fight hits the mat.