prob.py

prob.py

import math
from re import S

def choose(n, k): 
    return math.factorial(n) // math.factorial(k) // math.factorial(n-k)

def prob(n, k, p): 
    return math.exp(math.log(p) * k + math.log(1-p) * (n-k) + math.log(choose(n, k)))

def probge(n, k, p): 
    return sum([prob(n, i, p) for i in range(k, n+1)])

# def probge(n, k, p): 
#     total = 0
#     for i in range(k, n+1):
#         s =  prob(n, i, p)
#         total += s
#     return total  

r = 1.5/32
D = 300000
committee = int(r*D)  
print(committee)
half = int((committee + 1) / 2)

for p in [0.47, 0.48, 0.49, 0.5, 0.51]:
    print(committee, half, p)
    print(p, probge(committee, half, p))

(venv) ➜  pyscripts python prob.py
14062
14062 7031 0.47
0.47 5.673022879793059e-13
14062 7031 0.48
0.48 1.085159654612776e-06
14062 7031 0.49
0.49 0.009051311715550547
14062 7031 0.5
0.5 0.5033641766950481
14062 7031 0.51
0.51 0.9913525704207236