| Scenario | 2025 Assessment | 2026 Assessment | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Surveillance / Agentic Control | Very high | Near-certain | ↑ (reframed) |
| Employment Disruption | High | Highly likely (uneven) | → |
| Arms Race / Autonomous Warfare | High | Highly likely | ↑ |
| Hybrid Human-AI Work | Moderate-high | Highly likely (arrived) | ↑ |
| Regulatory / Bureaucratic Capture | Moderate | Contested | → (reframed) |
| Existential / Misalignment Risk | Moderate | Contested | → (grounded) |
| Scientific Acceleration | Moderate | Highly likely (narrowed) | ↑ |
Mikhail (Mike) Bukhtoyarov critical-thinker
critical-thinker
/ AI_Assessment_2026.md
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May 14, 2026 19:01