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is_violence_gt_resistance.py 2015 [edit 2019: does this RAND data show that one party has strategic gain by hurting themselves?]
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#!/usr/bin/env python | |
""" | |
http://www.rand.org/international/cmepp/costs-of-conflict/calculator.html | |
(archive: https://cypherpoet.com/rand.org_costs-of-conflict/) | |
Numbers based on defaults provided in rand.org scenarios. They intended | |
to show what Israel or PA have to gain from peace, but did not notice how | |
their data makes violence appear even closer. | |
Addition 2019: for a more verbose description and interpretation of this | |
data see the comment at end of file. | |
Results: | |
GAINS OR LOSSES | |
ISRAEL PALESTINE | |
rand.org scenarios in $ GDP % GDP % in $ advantage | |
two_state_solution 22.8b 10.4% : : 97.0% 9.7b 936% | |
withdrawal_coordinated -0.2b -0.1% : : 15.0% 1.5b 16500% | |
withdrawal_uncoordinated -4.0b -1.8% : : -1.0% -0.1b 55% | |
resistance_nonviolent -15.0b -6.8% : : -24.0% -2.4b -352% | |
resistance_violent -45.1b -20.5% : : -91.0% -9.1b -444% | |
(base nominal GDP: Isr 220.0b, Pal 10.0b) | |
This shows how rational the step from nonviolent to violent resistance | |
is because of all scenarios rand.org describe the step that provides the | |
least obstruction to change is the step between non-violent and violent. | |
Policy makers should be encouraged to increase the distance between the | |
two (violent, non-violent). If making violence more-costly isn't possible | |
(-91% to PA GDP is rather extreme already) then we may do better making | |
nonviolent resistance less-costly. | |
""" | |
# Isr Pal | |
gdpgainloss=( | |
('two_state_solution', [ 22.8, 9.7]), | |
('withdrawal_coordinated', [ -0.2, 1.5]), | |
('withdrawal_uncoordinated', [ -4.0, -0.1]), | |
('resistance_nonviolent', [-15.0, -2.4]), | |
('resistance_violent', [-45.1, -9.1]) | |
) | |
# Isr Pal | |
gdp = [220,10] # Wikipedia | |
# https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Israel | |
# https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_Palestinian_territories | |
#gdp = [257.2,11.26] # World Bank 2012 | |
# http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD | |
#gdp = [439,13.9] # Rand.org 2024 projected GDP | |
# https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR700/RR740/RAND_RR740.pdf page 23 | |
print " GAINS OR LOSSES" | |
print " ISRAEL PALESTINE " | |
print "rand.org scenarios in $ GDP % GDP % in $ advantage" | |
print "" | |
import math | |
for i in gdpgainloss: | |
gdpmul_isr = i[1][0]/gdp[0] | |
gdpmul_pal = i[1][1]/gdp[1] | |
print "%-24s %5sb %5s%% : : %5s%% %5sb"%(i[0], i[1][0], "%2.1f"%(gdpmul_isr*100), "%2.1f"%(gdpmul_pal*100), i[1][1]), | |
advantage_pal = gdpmul_pal / gdpmul_isr | |
if gdpmul_pal >= gdpmul_isr: | |
advantage_pal = math.copysign(advantage_pal, 1) | |
else: | |
advantage_pal = math.copysign(advantage_pal, gdpmul_isr) | |
print " %6s%%"%("%5.0f"%(advantage_pal*100)) | |
print "(base nominal GDP: Isr %.1fb, Pal %.1fb)"%(gdp[0],gdp[1]) | |
""" | |
I originally wrote this in response to what I felt was Randian neivity | |
that ignored the stratigic impitus that can cause violence to be seen, | |
among some, as a valid tool, while entirely discounting the value | |
of non-violent protest as a form to prevent that violence. I will try | |
to clarify what I was thinking at the time. | |
If the Isr and Pal entities are assumed to be playing "against" | |
eachother then the stratigic advantage or disadvantage should be | |
considered. The "advantage" column shows what Pal has to gain or lose | |
in *comparison* to what Isr has to gain or lose. | |
The RAND message was that both parties gain the most, in real GDP, from | |
a two state solution. The data does not dispute this. In that scenerio | |
Pal GDP increases 936% more from base GDP in comparison to Isr increase | |
from their own base GDP. But the data tells other stories too. | |
In the scenerios of two state solution, withdrawal coordinated, and | |
withdrawal uncoordinated, Isr is stratigically disadvantaged. Does this | |
incentivise Isr to avoid persuing these scenerios? | |
The original statement, that the step to violence provides the least | |
resistance with greatest possible stratigic advantage, has to do with | |
the assumption that a scenerio where nothing happens cannot be held | |
infinitely. I think that the scenerio resistance_nonviolent is | |
currently in progress. If so then of all of the remaining scenerios, | |
violence provides the lowest barrier, and is one that extremests and | |
militants could be convinced would provide an increased stratigic | |
advantage. Having lived through the 2nd Intifada I think this | |
reasoning has been realized before and worry it would again. | |
I fear that non-violent protest may be the only thing standing in the | |
way of violence. And I am worried that the step from non-violence | |
to violence is so small. I think too many ignore that, for some, | |
turning the stick into a weapon can seem more plausible then | |
obtaining the carrot on it. My belief is that to further reduce the | |
strategic value of violence the distance between its advantage and | |
that of non-violence should be increased. This would mean making | |
non-violence less-costly for Pal. | |
""" |
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