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daveklotz/results.txt

Created July 31, 2021 20:26
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Results of Back Testing from 2021, 2018 and 2017
Raw
results.txt
2021 through July 27th
======================
+-------------+-----------+----------+------------+------------+
| Certainty | NumBets | Stake | Winnings | ROI |
|-------------+-----------+----------+------------+------------|
| Pr > 0.0 | 1395 | 162761 | 1366 | 0.00839267 |
| Pr > 0.05 | 439 | 48121 | 4786 | 0.0994576 |
| Pr > 0.10 | 125 | 13991 | 1503 | 0.107426 |
| Pr > 0.15 | 64 | 7294 | 226 | 0.0309844 |
| Pr > 0.20 | 51 | 5538 | 609 | 0.109967 |
| Kelly | 1395 | 63382.5 | 2660.53 | 0.0419758 |
+-------------+-----------+----------+------------+------------+
+--------------------+
| Market Support % |
|--------------------|
| 0.513585 |
+--------------------+
===========================================================================
2018
======================
+-------------+-----------+---------+------------+-------------+
| Certainty | NumBets | Stake | Winnings | ROI |
|-------------+-----------+---------+------------+-------------|
| Pr > 0.0 | 2175 | 265380 | 20917.5 | 0.0788209 |
| Pr > 0.05 | 985 | 119398 | 10750.5 | 0.0900392 |
| Pr > 0.10 | 400 | 48642 | 6204.5 | 0.127554 |
| Pr > 0.15 | 234 | 26947 | 1621.5 | 0.0601737 |
| Pr > 0.20 | 179 | 18974 | -165.5 | -0.00872246 |
| Kelly | 2175 | 153284 | 8578.07 | 0.0559619 |
+-------------+-----------+---------+------------+-------------+
+--------------------+
| Market Support % |
|--------------------|
| 0.462526 |
+--------------------+
===========================================================================
2017
======================
+-------------+-----------+---------+------------+------------+
| Certainty | NumBets | Stake | Winnings | ROI |
|-------------+-----------+---------+------------+------------|
| Pr > 0.0 | 2214 | 259669 | 8222 | 0.0316634 |
| Pr > 0.05 | 901 | 102196 | 8859 | 0.0866864 |
| Pr > 0.10 | 368 | 41509 | 1210 | 0.0291503 |
| Pr > 0.15 | 231 | 25986 | 925 | 0.0355961 |
| Pr > 0.20 | 195 | 20880 | 71 | 0.00340038 |
| Kelly | 2214 | 143130 | 7204.03 | 0.050332 |
+-------------+-----------+---------+------------+------------+
+--------------------+
| Market Support % |
|--------------------|
| 0.460796 |
+--------------------+
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