A woman has two children, (at least) one of whom is a boy. What's the probability that she has two boys?
B B-B 1/4
/
/
B
/ \
/ \
/ G B-G 1/4
/
\
\ B G-B 1/4
\ /
\ /
G
\
\
G G-G 1/4
There are three equally likely scenarios: B-B, B-G, and G-B. Of these, only B-B meets the condition, so the probability is 1/3.