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August 4, 2017 10:23
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# LICENSE MIT | |
# Data from RKI with special Terms | |
library(dplyr) | |
library(readr) | |
library(tidyr) | |
# go to https://survstat.rki.de/Content/Query/Create.aspx | |
# Selected calendar weeks for rows and diseases for columns. | |
# had to manually edit, because not a valid csv | |
# Remvoe first line | |
# saved with UTF8 encoding | |
data <- readr::read_tsv("Data.csv") | |
data[is.na(data)] <- 0 | |
# bring it to a long format | |
long_data <- gather(data, disease, count, -isoweek) | |
# select the top 9 in 2016 | |
top_diseases <- long_data %>% | |
filter(isoweek >= "2016-KW01", isoweek <= "2016-KW52") %>% | |
group_by(disease) %>% | |
summarise(count = sum(count, na.rm = TRUE)) %>% | |
arrange(desc(count)) %>% | |
head(9) | |
# translate to english | |
disease_translation <- c( | |
"Norovirus-Gastroenteritis" = "Norovirus-Gastroenteritis", | |
"Campylobacter-Enteritis" = "Campylobacter-Enteritis", | |
"Influenza" = "Influenza", | |
"Windpocken" = "Chickenpox", | |
"Rotavirus-Gastroenteritis" = "Rotavirus-Gastroenteritis", | |
"Keuchhusten" = "Pertussis", | |
"Salmonellose" = "Salmonellosis", | |
"Borreliose" = "Borreliosis", | |
"Tuberkulose" = "Tuberculosis" | |
) | |
# generate the data for plotting | |
plot_data <- long_data %>% | |
semi_join(top_diseases, by = "disease") %>% | |
filter(isoweek >= "2005-KW01") %>% | |
mutate(disease = disease_translation[disease]) %>% | |
mutate(disease = forcats::fct_reorder(factor(disease), count, function(x) -1 * mean(x))) %>% | |
mutate(week = as.integer(stringr::str_sub(isoweek, start = -2)), | |
year = stringr::str_sub(isoweek, end = 4), | |
line_group = paste0(disease, "#", year), | |
iso_week = stringr::str_replace(isoweek, "KW", "")) %>% | |
filter(week >= 1, week <= 52) | |
# we compute a model fit for each week and disease | |
library(broom) | |
gam_smooth <- plot_data %>% | |
group_by(disease, isoweek) %>% | |
do({ | |
di <- head(.$disease, 1) | |
isoweek_limit <- head(.$isoweek, 1) | |
fit_data <- filter(plot_data, disease == di, isoweek <= isoweek_limit) | |
if (nrow(fit_data) <= 10) { | |
data.frame() | |
} else { | |
fit <- mgcv::gam(count ~ s(week, bs = "cc"), family = poisson, data = fit_data) | |
cbind(data.frame(fit_week = head(.$iso_week, 1), | |
iso_week = fit_data$iso_week, | |
week = fit_data$week, | |
disease = di), broom::tidy(predict(fit, type = "response"))) | |
} | |
}) %>% | |
mutate(line_group = paste0(disease, "#", fit_week)) %>% | |
mutate(fit_week = as.character(fit_week), | |
line_group = as.character(line_group)) | |
# now animate it | |
library(ggplot2) | |
library(gganimate) | |
library(ggthemes) | |
p <- ggplot(plot_data, aes(x = week)) + | |
geom_point(aes(y = count, frame = iso_week, group = disease), color = "red", alpha = 0.6) + | |
geom_line(aes(y = count, frame = iso_week, cumulative = TRUE, group = line_group), color = "red", alpha = 0.1, size = 1.2) + | |
facet_wrap(~disease, scales = "free_y") + | |
ggthemes::theme_fivethirtyeight() + | |
geom_line(data = gam_smooth, aes(y = x, x = week, | |
frame = fit_week, | |
group = line_group), color = "red", linetype = "dashed", alpha = 0.8) + | |
theme(axis.title = element_text(), | |
strip.text = element_text(hjust = 0, size = rel(1), face = "bold")) + | |
ylab("Reported cases (different y scales)") + | |
xlab("Calendar ISO week") + | |
ggtitle("The top 9 reported infectious diseases in Germany from 2005 to 2017 - ") + | |
expand_limits(y = 0) | |
p | |
gganimate(p, interval = .05, ani.width = 900, ani.height = 600, filename = "video.mp4", saver = ) |
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I had to convert the output file with iconv
By the way, I'm German, but I've used an English-locale Browser to grab the data. Then Robert-Koch-Institute, RKI, gave me everything in English. No translation was necessary.
These are RKI's terms/translations.