writeup of my exposure risk assessment, 1/17/22

exposure risk

The questions I want to answer are:
1. When were Sean and Lorie exposed
2. When would Sean and Lorie have been contagious 

What we know:
Shawn tested positive today, Monday.
Lorie tested negative yesterday, Sunday.
Their symptoms appear about one day apart: Shawn had a scratchy throat on Friday and called out sick on Saturday, Lorie had a scratchy throat on Saturday and was sick on Sunday.
There is a window where someone is contagious with Covid.

The CDC's recommendations (they updated it 1/9/22):
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/quarantine-isolation.html#closecontact

What I'm assuming:
The CDC knows what they are doing.
Lorie's home test was accurate (I wasn't Shake and Bake but I *did* help.)
Covid usually takes several days before symptoms show up and someone is contagious.
A negative home test Covid test usually means that someone doesn't have enough virus in them to easily infect others. 

Let's go through the timeline, italics are my reasonable assumptions:

|Tuesday |Wednesday |Thursday |Friday |Saturday |Sunday |Monday |Tuesday|
|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|
|everyone worked  |everyone worked | Sean's the only one off |Sean's throat |Sean's sick| **Sean would have tested positive** |Sean tests positive|
||||not everyone worked|Lorie's throat|Lorie's sick but tests negative, 1:00 PM| **Lorie would have tested positive** |**Lorie will test positive**  |

Here is what I think are reasonable answers.
I think Sean and Lorie have the same exposure source over two consecutive days.
The exposure was Wednesday or earlier.
Neither Sean nor Lorie were contagious at work.
It's likely the source of the exposure is no longer contagious and probably never knew they were sick.
Late yesterday or today is my Day Zero, *yay*.

So what does that mean?
For me, I'm going to work tomorrow and will wear a mask around others. Like you guys, I've been doing that this whole time.
If I feel sick I'll call out and stay home.
I've got PCR tests scheduled for Thursday and Saturday, my Day 3 or 4 and 5 or 6, but will likely take a rapid test if I can get my hands on one as confirmation of my assumptions.

I plan to follow up with someone at our Health Department on Tuesday just to make sure this is reasonable for my own sake. I'll let Lorie know if they tell me any different.

-Dale