simula_eleicoes.R

# Simulando probabilidades
# Teste
simula_eleicoes <- function(sd) {
ns <- seq(0.25, 0.75, 0.001)
v <- purrr::map_dbl(ns,  ~ mean(
  ifelse(
    rnorm(n = 100000, mean = .x, sd = sd) > .5
    , 1, 0 )
    )
  )
  tibble(ns = ns, v = v)
}

ggplot2::qplot(data = simula_eleicoes(0.01), ns, v, geom = "line") + ggplot2::theme_bw() + scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(0, 1,0.02)) +
  labs(x = "porcentagem", y = "probabilidade_vitoria")

ggplot2::qplot(data = simula_eleicoes(0.03), ns, v, geom = "line") + ggplot2::theme_bw() + scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(0, 1,0.02)) +
  labs(x = "porcentagem", y = "probabilidade_vitoria")