footer: @eloy, 2018 slidenumbers: true slidecount: true
- The Business
- The Financials
- The Management
- The Valuation
Electric automaker for average consumers and energy storage products.
| Vehicle | Starting price | Bells & whistles | Range in miles |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model 3 | $36,000 | $66,000 | 310 |
| Model S | $62,700 | $147,000 | 259 |
| Model X | $67,800 | $151,000 | 295 |
| Roadster | $200,000 | 620 |
- roadster base model: fastest production-made car ever, 1.9 secs 0 to 60 mph
| Technology | Starting price | Supporting hardware | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solar Panels | |||
| Powerwall | $5,900 | $700 | 7+ days continuous power |
| Solar Roof | |||
| Commercial | |||
| Utilities |
Brand
- New and forward leaning technologies
- Tesla made electric vehicles exciting
- Electric vehicles that look good (leaf?)
- Electric vehicles that are fast
- All electric that can travel 100+ miles on one fill
- Tesla made electric vehicles exciting
- Push the human race forward enviornmentally
Network Effects
- Charging stations More charging stations the more buy-in there is for all electric vehicles
- Purchasing one product contributes the next
- Solar tiles
- Charging walls
- Electric vehicle
- Switching Cost
- Unknown resale market for Tesla vehicles
- Builtin Powerwall currently not compatible with other electric vehicles
- Low Cost?
- Currently; $7,500 EV Tax Credit (but for how long?)
- Speculation: They insist that the best production lines have significant inefficiencies which they intend to capitalize on
- Intangible Assets
- Reputation for building superb products
- Roadster transformed the image of electric cars
- Fast full electric vehicles (which most didn't consider possible)
- Set record for highest speed (0 to 60) production sedan in history; that beats some supercars
- Serving direct; no third-party dealerships
- Reputation for building superb products
- Intangible Assets (cont.)
- Reputation for building superb products
- Cares more about good service, good product, and honesty rather than making money
- No sign that other automakers have figured out how to adjust their business approaches to compete in -his “human” side of the equation
- Reputation for building superb products
- Speculation: Planned 2020 gigafactory production exceeds 2013 global production
- 35k GWh/year production
- Ubiquitous fast charging stations
- Competitors have left this to the market to solve
- The price of the charging station is also rolled into the price of the vehicle.
- Software several leagues above the competition
- Most mobile, dashboards, and navigation systems of electric vehicles is clumsy and difficult to work with.
- Amazing software and existing services are left to trusted companies like Google.
- Over the air updates
- Most mobile, dashboards, and navigation systems of electric vehicles is clumsy and difficult to work with.
- Customers
- High loyalty of existing customers
- Some customers are growing impatient waiting for their vehicle
- Suppliers
- Suppliers don't trust them; so they're not over producing supplies
- This is a self-fullfiling prophecy, putting Tesla in a tough position
- Employees
- Exciting place to work
- High turn over
- High expectations
- Want to unionize
- Regulators
- No issues with regulatory framework
- current-assets/current-liabilities; should be >= 2
- 6.5B7/7.6B = 0.85
- They need outside funding to continue operations
| 2017 | 2016 | |
|---|---|---|
| Current assets | $6,570,520 | $6,259,796 |
| Current liabilities | $7,674,671 | $5,827,005 |
- No (reasonable is 3 to 5 years to pay off debt)
- Long term debt 2017 9.4B
- Cash flow from operations: -60M
- In the last three years, have never been positive
- Trending positive
| 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|
| $(60,654) | $(123,859) | $(524,499) |
- Is management properly incentivized to protect shareholder interests over its own?
- Elon Musk (CEO) owns ~22%
- Has management handled excess capital in a shareholder friendly way? Buybacks and dividend payments?
- It's all being reinvested, and probably will be for a long time
- Is management open and honest?
- Michell Krebs (Detroit-based executive analyist for Autotrader
- Missing deadlines is "part of their track record"
- Michell Krebs (Detroit-based executive analyist for Autotrader
Vehicles promised
| Promised | Promise | By when | Reality | short |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2015 | 55k | 2015 | 51k | 4k |
| Feb. 2016 | 16k | Q1 2016 | 14,820 | 1180 |
| May 2016 | 20k | Q2 2016 | 17k | 3k |
| Q4 2016 | 1.5k Model 3 | Q3 2017 | 260 | 1240 |
More Vehicles promises
| Promised | Promise | By when |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2017 | 5k/wk | March 2018 |
| Q1 2018 | 500k/yr | in 2108 |
| 1 million/yr | in 2020 |