Figure out the hit-rate for a hearthstone combo

combo_mulligan_simulator.py

#!/usr/bin/env python

import random

_memoize = []
def fac(x):
  if x < 0:
    return 1
  if len(_memoize) <= x:
    _memoize.append(1 if x == 0 else x * fac(x - 1))
  return _memoize[x] * 1.0

HS_DECK = 30

TARGET_TURN = 3
COMBO_PARTS = [2, 4] # 2 Darkwing Technicians and 5 Dragons

TRIALS = 10000

def trial(part_range_list):
  deck = [min(y for y in part_range_list if y > x) if part_range_list[-1] > x else -1 for x in xrange(HS_DECK)]
  deck.sort(key = lambda x: random.random())
  mulligan_cards = 4 if random.random() > 0.5 else 3
  keepers = len(set(x for x in deck[:mulligan_cards] if x != -1))
  seen = mulligan_cards - keepers + TARGET_TURN
  return len(set(x for x in deck[:seen] if x != -1)) == len(COMBO_PARTS)

def build_part_range_list():
  copy = COMBO_PARTS[:]
  for x in xrange(1, len(copy)):
    copy[x] = copy[x] + copy[x - 1]
  return copy

def main():
  part_range_list = build_part_range_list()
  successes = sum(1 for x in xrange(TRIALS) if trial(part_range_list))
  print "Ran %d tests with %.2f%% success rate." % (TRIALS, (100.0 * successes) / TRIALS)

if __name__ == '__main__':
  main()