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@fredericojordan
Created April 10, 2020 19:04
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Graphing the "Coronavirus curve" with Python
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
from scipy.integrate import odeint
MAX_TIME = 20.0
infected_start = 0.01
infection_rate = 2.5
recovery_rate = 0.3
susceptible_start = 1.0 - infected_start
recovered_start = 0.0
initial_state = [susceptible_start, infected_start, recovered_start]
state_change_rate = lambda state, _time: [
-state[0] * state[1] * infection_rate,
state[0] * state[1] * infection_rate - state[1] * recovery_rate,
state[1] * recovery_rate,
]
time_series = np.linspace(0, MAX_TIME, 100)
state_series = odeint(state_change_rate, initial_state, time_series)
susceptible_series = state_series[:, 0]
infected_series = state_series[:, 1]
recovered_series = state_series[:, 2]
plt.plot(time_series, susceptible_series, label="Susceptible")
plt.plot(time_series, infected_series, label="Infected")
plt.plot(time_series, recovered_series, label="Recovered")
plt.xlabel("Time")
plt.ylabel("Population")
plt.legend()
plt.show()
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