This is a simple Monte Carlo simulation to see whether our sale person should execute a strategy of 'many' big deals and 'few' small ones or vis versa.

AppsScript - Monte Carlo simulation.js

/***************************************************************************
 *
 * This is a simple Monte Carlo simulation to see whether our sale
 * person should execute a strategy of 'many' big deals and 'few' small ones
 * or vis versa.
 *
 * Author: Ido Green | plus.google.com/+greenido
 * Date: 16 July 2013
 *
 * *************************************************************************/

//Below are the important assumptions that drive the simulation

// The % chance of making 'big' deal
var bigDealPerc = 0.4; 

// The % chance of making 'small' deal
var smallDealPerc = 0.5; 

// the max amounts of deals we can do in X days
var amountOfDealsExecution = 50; 
var amountBigDeals = 25;
var amountSmallDeals = 50;

// values per deal
var bigDeal   = 30000;
var smallDeal = 10000;

// 
// Run on the amount
//
function runSenarioBlending() {
  try {
  var maxAmount = 0;
  for (var i=0; i < amountBigDeals; i++) {
    var profit = runDealsBlending(i+3);
    SpreadsheetApp.flush();
    if (profit > maxAmount) {
      maxAmount = profit;
    }
  }  
  var outStr = "The max amount: $" + maxAmount;  
  Browser.msgBox(outStr);
  Logger.log(outStr);  
  } catch(err) {
    Logger.log("Error: runSenarioBlending(): " + err);
  }
  //return maxAmount;
}

//
// We do X Big Deals and than the rest of Y Small Deals
//
function runDealsBlending(curLine) {    
  var winsBig = 0;
  var lossBig = 0;
  var winSmall = 0;
  var lossSmall = 0;
  var curTrial = 0;
  var moneyWeMade = 0;
  
  // Try the X big deals
  for (var b=0; b < curLine-2; b++) {      
    if (winBigDeal()) { 
      // We got the Big deal!
      moneyWeMade += bigDeal;  
      winsBig++;    
    } 
    else {
      lossBig++;
    }
  }
  
  // Try the rest of the deals on small ones
  for (var s=0; s < amountSmallDeals && ((b*2)+s) < amountOfDealsExecution; s++) {
    if (winSmallDeal()) {  
      // We got the Small deal!
      moneyWeMade += smallDeal; 
      winSmall++;
    } 
    else {
      lossSmall++;
    }        
  }
  
  // update our spreadsheet
  var curSheet =   SpreadsheetApp.getActiveSpreadsheet().getSheetByName("Deals");
  curSheet.getRange("a"+curLine).setValue(winsBig);
  curSheet.getRange("c"+curLine).setValue(winSmall);
  curSheet.getRange("b"+curLine).setValue(lossBig);
  curSheet.getRange("d"+curLine).setValue(lossSmall);     
  curSheet.getRange("e"+curLine).setValue(moneyWeMade); 
  return moneyWeMade;
};

//
// Determines if we win in a given trial when we aim for BIG deal
//
function winBigDeal() {
    if (Math.random() < bigDealPerc) {
      // We won big deal
      return true; 
    } 
    return false; 
};

//
// Determines if we win in a given trials when we aim for small deal 
//
function winSmallDeal() {
    if (Math.random() < smallDealPerc) {
      // We won small deal
      return true; 
    } 
    return false;
};


function onOpen() {
  var ss = SpreadsheetApp.getActiveSpreadsheet();
  var menuEntries = [];
  // When the user selects "addMenuExample" menu, and clicks "Menu Entry 1", the function function1 is executed.
  menuEntries.push({name: "Run One Deal Simulation", functionName: "runDealSim"});
  menuEntries.push({name: "Run Many Simulations", functionName: "runSenario"});
  menuEntries.push({name: "Run Many Control Simulations", functionName: "runSenarioBlending"});
  menuEntries.push({name: "Find Max Profit", functionName: "findMaxAmount"});
    
  ss.addMenu("GDL Sim Example", menuEntries);
}


//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// For the next GDL IL
//
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

var trials = 25; //Number of trials to run for simulation
var senarios = 10; // num of senarios...

// Main function to find the max return from many simulations
function findMaxAmount() {
  for (var i=0; i < senarios; i++) {
    var amount = runSenarioBlending();
    SpreadsheetApp.getActiveSpreadsheet().getSheetByName("Deals").getRange("e"+(40+i)).setValue(amount);
    Logger.log(i + ") Amount: " + amount + " \n " );
  }    

}


function runSenario() {
  for (var i=0; i < senarios; i++)
    runDealSim(i+3);
}

//
function runDealSim(curLine) {
  var winsBig = 0;
  var lossBig = 0;
  var winSmall = 0;
  var lossSmall = 0;
  var curTrial = 0;
  var moneyWeMade = 0;
  while (curTrial < trials) {      
    if (winBigDeal()) { 
      moneyWeMade += bigDeal;  
      winsBig++;    
    } 
    else {
      lossBig++;
    }
    
    if (winSmallDeal()) {  
      moneyWeMade += smallDeal; 
      winSmall++;
        } 
        else {
           lossSmall++;
        }    
       
      //Keep track of the number of trials
      curTrial++;
    }
  
  SpreadsheetApp.getActiveSpreadsheet().getSheetByName("Deals").getRange("a"+curLine).setValue(winsBig);
  SpreadsheetApp.getActiveSpreadsheet().getSheetByName("Deals").getRange("c"+curLine).setValue(winSmall);

  SpreadsheetApp.getActiveSpreadsheet().getSheetByName("Deals").getRange("b"+curLine).setValue(lossBig);
  SpreadsheetApp.getActiveSpreadsheet().getSheetByName("Deals").getRange("d"+curLine).setValue(lossSmall);     
  SpreadsheetApp.getActiveSpreadsheet().getSheetByName("Deals").getRange("e"+curLine).setValue(moneyWeMade); 
};


////////////////////////
// init
//var trails = 10;

var cube = new Array(6);

function cleanCube() {
  for(var j=0; j<6; j++) {
    cube[j]=0;
  }
}

//
function findProp() {
  for (var i=0; i < trails; i++) {
    runSim();
    var luckyNum = cube[3];
    SpreadsheetApp.getActiveSpreadsheet().getSheetByName("Prop").getRange("b"+(i+2)).setValue(luckyNum);
  }
}

//
function runSim() {
  cleanCube();
  for (var i=0; i < trails; i++) {
    var face = Math.floor((Math.random()*6)+1); // Give us a rand between 1-6
    cube[face-1]++;
  }
  
  printResults();
}

function printResults() {
  for(var j=2; j<8; j++) {
    SpreadsheetApp.getActiveSpreadsheet().getSheetByName("Sim").getRange("c"+j).setValue(cube[j-2]);  
  }
  Logger.log("The cube results: " + cube);
}