North south deaths

library(tidyverse)
library(janitor)
library(RcppRoll)
deaths <- read_csv("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv")

deaths <- deaths %>%
  rename(province_state = `Province/State`,
         country_region = `Country/Region`) %>%
  pivot_longer(-c("province_state", "country_region", "Lat", "Long"),
               names_to = "date", values_to = "deaths") %>%
  mutate(date = lubridate::mdy(date)) %>%
  janitor::clean_names() 


deaths <- deaths %>%
  mutate(
    lat_group = case_when(
      lat > 25 ~ "North",
      lat < 25 & lat > -25 ~ "Equator",
      TRUE ~ "South"
    ),
    month = lubridate::month(date), 
    quarter = lubridate::quarter(date), 
    is_summer = dplyr::case_when(
      month %in% c(10, 11, 12, 1:4) ~ FALSE,
      TRUE ~ TRUE
    ), 
    is_summer = dplyr::case_when(
      lat_group == "South" ~ !is_summer, 
      lat_group == "Equator" ~ TRUE, 
      lat_group == "North" ~ is_summer
    ), 
    season = case_when(
      !is_summer ~ "not_summer",
      is_summer ~ "summer"
    )
  )


deaths <- deaths %>% 
  filter(lat_group %in% c("North", "South")) %>% 
  group_by(country_region, date,) %>% 
  summarize(deaths = sum(deaths), 
            season = season[1], 
            is_summer = is_summer[1], 
            lat_group = lat_group[1]) %>% 
  group_by(country_region) %>%
  mutate(daily_deaths = deaths ) %>%
  mutate(daily_deaths = deaths - lag(deaths)) %>%
  arrange(date) %>%
  mutate(rolling_deaths = roll_sum(daily_deaths, 7, align = "right", fill = NA))


deaths <- deaths %>% 
  mutate(mean_summer_deaths = mean(rolling_deaths[!is_summer], na.rm = TRUE)) %>%
  mutate(deaths_norm = rolling_deaths / mean_summer_deaths) %>% 
  filter(mean_summer_deaths > 1)


deaths %>% 
  mutate(season = fct_rev(season)) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = date, y = rolling_deaths, color = season, group = country_region)) +
  geom_point(alpha = 0.7, size = .5) +
  facet_wrap(~lat_group, nrow = 2, scales = "free") +
  theme_light() +
  labs(title = "Covid Deaths",
        y = "Seven day rolling average (free scales)",
       x = "Date") +
  scale_color_brewer(palette = "Set1") +
  scale_color_manual(values = c("summer" = "maroon", "not_summer" = "dark blue"))