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@hackingthemarkets
Last active December 28, 2022 22:56
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Good afternoon
My colleagues and I are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal
We have both the tools that we need and the resolve it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses
Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy
Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone
In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all
Today, the FOMC raised our policy interest rate by 75 basis points and we continue to anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate
We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%
In addition, we are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet
Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive stance of policy for some time
I will have more to say about today's monetary policy actions after briefly reviewing economic developments
The U.S economy has slowed significantly from last year's rapid pace
Real GDP rose at a pace of 2.6% last quarter but is unchanged so far this year
Recent indicators point to modest growth of spending and production this quarter
Growth in consumer spending has slowed from last year's rapid pace in part reflecting lower real disposable income and tighter financial conditions
Activity in the housing sector has weakened significantly, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates
Higher interest rates and slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment
Despite the slowdown in growth, the labor market remains extremely tight with the unemployment rate at a 50-year low
Job vacancies still very high and wage growth elevated
Job gains have been robust with employment rising by an average of 289,000 jobs per month over August and September
Although job vacancies have moved below their highs and the pace of job gains has slowed from earlier in the year, the labor market continues to be out of balance, with demand substantially exceeding the supply of available workers
The labor force participation rate is little changed since the beginning of the year
Inflation remains well above our longer run goal of 2%
Over the 12 months ending in September, total PCE prices rose at 6.2%, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose at 5.1%
The recent inflation data again have come in higher than expected
Price pressures remained evident across a broad range of goods and services
Russia's war against Ukraine has boosted prices for energy and food and has created additional upward pressure on inflation
Despite elevated inflation, longer term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets
That is not grounds for complacency
The longer the current amount of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched
The Fed's monetary policy actions are guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people
My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship and is at erode's purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation
We are highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we're strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2% objective
At today's meeting, the committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 75 basis points, and we are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet, which plays an important role in firming the stance of monetary policy
With today's action, we've raised interest rates by 3 and 3-quarters percentage points this year
We anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2% over time
Financial conditions have tightened significantly in response to our policy actions, and we are seeing the effects on demand in the most interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy, such as housing
It will take time, however, for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation
That's why we say in our statement that in determining the pace of future increases in the target range, we will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy and the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation
At some point, as I've said in the last two press conferences, it will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases, as we approach the level of interest rates that will be sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to our 2% goal
There is significant uncertainty around that level of interest rates
Even so, we still have some ways to go, and incoming data since our last meeting suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected
Our decisions will depend on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation
We will continue to make our decisions meeting by being and communicate our thinking as clearly as possible
We're taking forceful steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply
Our overarching focus is using our tools to bring inflation back down to our 2% goal and to keep longer term inflation expectations well anchored
Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions
Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices in the longer run
The historical record caution strongly against prematurely loosening policy
We will stay the course until the job is done
To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families and businesses across the country
Everything we do is in service to our public mission
We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals
Thank you and I look forward to your questions.
We can make this file beautiful and searchable if this error is corrected: No commas found in this CSV file in line 0.
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"red"
"potatoes"
"soda"
"cheese"
"water"
"blue"
"crispy"
"hamburger"
"coffee"
"green"
"milk"
"la croix"
"yellow"
"chocolate"
"french fries"
"latte"
"cake"
"brown"
"cheeseburger"
"espresso"
"cheesecake"
"black"
"mocha"
"fizzy"
"carbon"
"banana"
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