reinforce-simulation.py

import random
import math

item_min = 57
item_max = 225
num_simulation = 100000
cost = 60000

def draw(sm):
    global s, item_min, item_max
    t = random.randrange(item_min, item_max)
    if t > s[0]:
        sm = sm - s[0] + t
        s[0] = t
        s.sort()
    return sm

def count():
    global s, item_min, item_max

    n = 0
    for i in range(0,10):
        s[i] = random.randrange(item_min, item_max)

# For an existing item, comment this out
# and fill in your values
#    s = [ 47, 46, 36, 48, 45,
#          28, 43, 44, 40, 39 ]

    s.sort()
    sm = sum(s)

    while sm < s95:
        sm = draw(sm)
        n+=1

    n95 = n

    while sm < s99:
        sm = draw(sm)
        n+=1

    return n95, n

s95 = int(math.ceil(item_max * 9.5))
s99 = int(math.ceil(item_max * 9.9))
item_max+=1
c95=[]
c99=[]
s=[ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0 ]

for k in xrange(0, num_simulation):
    (n95, n99) = count()
    c95.append(n95)
    c99.append(n99)

c95.sort()
c99.sort()
item_max-=1

print "%d simulation runs for item range %d-%d - Cost %d" % (num_simulation, item_min, item_max, cost)
print
print "25%% Chance of 95%% with %d reinforcements: %d gold" % (c95[num_simulation/4], c95[num_simulation/4]*cost)
print "50%% Chance of 95%% with %d reinforcements: %d gold" % (c95[num_simulation/2], c95[num_simulation/2]*cost)
print "75%% Chance of 95%% with %d reinforcements: %d gold" % (c95[num_simulation*3/4], c95[num_simulation*3/4]*cost)
print "90%% Chance of 95%% with %d reinforcements: %d gold" % (c95[num_simulation*9/10], c95[num_simulation*9/10]*cost)
print
print "25%% Chance of 99%% with %d reinforcements: %d gold" % (c99[num_simulation/4], c99[num_simulation/4]*cost)
print "50%% Chance of 99%% with %d reinforcements: %d gold" % (c99[num_simulation/2], c99[num_simulation/2]*cost)
print "75%% Chance of 99%% with %d reinforcements: %d gold" % (c99[num_simulation*3/4], c99[num_simulation*3/4]*cost)
print "90%% Chance of 99%% with %d reinforcements: %d gold" % (c99[num_simulation*9/10], c99[num_simulation*9/10]*cost)