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from math import sqrt
def confidence(ups, downs):
n = ups + downs
if n == 0:
return 0
z = 1.96 #1.96 = 95%
phat = float(ups) / n
return ((phat + z*z/(2*n) - z * sqrt((phat*(1-phat)+z*z/(4*n))/n))/(1+z*z/n))
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