hitch17/fantasy-team-comparison.r

## fantasy-team-comparison.r
library(reshape)

matchups <- read.csv('league-matchups.csv') # dont forget to set working directory or change the full path

league.sd <- sd(matchups$team_actual_points)
league.mean <- mean(matchups$team_actual_points)
weeks <- max(matchups$week)

team.melted <- melt(matchups, id.vars="place", measure.vars="team_actual_points")
places <- cast(team.melted, place ~ variable, fun.aggregate=mean)$place
team_mean <- cast(team.melted, place ~ variable, fun.aggregate=mean)$team_actual_points
team_sd <- cast(team.melted, place ~ variable, fun.aggregate=sd)$team_actual_points

opp.melted = melt(matchups, id.vars="place", measure.vars="opp_actual_points")
opp_mean <- cast(opp.melted, place ~ variable, fun.aggregate=mean)$opp_actual_points
opp_sd <- cast(opp.melted, place ~ variable, fun.aggregate=sd)$opp_actual_points

standings.melted <- melt(matchups, id.vars="place", measure.vars="win")
wins <- cast(standings.melted, place ~ variable, fun.aggregate=sum)$win
losses <- weeks - wins
winpct <- wins / (wins + losses)
pyth_opp <- 1 / (1 + ((opp_mean / team_mean) ^ 2))

results <- as.data.frame(cbind(places, team_mean, team_sd, opp_mean, opp_sd, wins, losses, winpct, pyth_opp))
colnames(results) <- cbind("place", "team_mean", "team_sd", "opp_mean", "opp_sd", "wins", "losses", "winpct", "pyth_opp")
print(results)

plot(results$team_sd, results$team_mean, xlab="Std.Dev. (Risk)", ylab="Actual Points", main="Actual Points vs Risk")
abline(h=league.mean, v=league.sd, col="gray", lty="dashed")
points(league.sd, league.mean, col="red")
text(league.sd, league.mean, "League", pos=4, col="red")
text(results$team_sd, results$team_mean, results$place, pos=4)

plot(results$pyth_opp, results$winpct, xlab="Pythagorean Expectation", ylab="Actual Winning Pct", main="Win Percentage (Actual vs Estimated)")
text(results$pyth_opp, results$winpct, results$place, pos=4)
abline(coef(lm(winpct ~ pyth_opp, results)), col='red', lty="dashed")

## league-matchups.csv

          
            week
            team_id
            team_actual_points
            team_expected_points
            opp_id
            opp_actual_points
            opp_projected_points
            win
            place

            
              1
              1
              157.33
              141.7
              8
              129.58
              113.46
              1
              3

            
              1
              8
              129.58
              113.46
              1
              157.33
              141.7
              0
              9

            
              1
              2
              126.7
              134.49
              5
              168.69
              141.57
              0
              2

            
              1
              5
              168.69
              141.57
              2
              126.7
              134.49
              1
              10

            
              1
              3
              187.93
              148.87
              9
              151.22
              123.89
              1
              1

            
              1
              9
              151.22
              123.89
              3
              187.93
              148.87
              0
              7

            
              1
              4
              138.12
              126.23
              10
              136.43
              102.54
              1
              4

            
              1
              10
              136.43
              102.54
              4
              138.12
              126.23
              0
              8

            
              1
              6
              116.59
              119.39
              7
              159.32
              144.37
              0
              6

            
              1
              7
              159.32
              144.37
              6
              116.59
              119.39
              1
              5

            
              2
              1
              169.87
              142.63
              5
              107.97
              156.81
              1
              3

            
              2
              5
              107.97
              156.81
              1
              169.87
              142.63
              0
              10

            
              2
              2
              187.72
              137.29
              9
              159.04
              143.6
              1
              2

            
              2
              9
              159.04
              143.6
              2
              187.72
              137.29
              0
              7

            
              2
              3
              154.1
              156.66
              7
              180.35
              144.85
              0
              1

            
              2
              7
              180.35
              144.85
              3
              154.1
              156.66
              1
              5

            
              2
              4
              176.77
              142.5
              8
              168.98
              138.45
              1
              4

            
              2
              8
              168.98
              138.45
              4
              176.77
              142.5
              0
              9

            
              2
              6
              126.66
              146.01
              10
              122.54
              132.18
              1
              6

            
              2
              10
              122.54
              132.18
              6
              126.66
              146.01
              0
              8

            
              3
              1
              147.52
              150.39
              2
              156.68
              146.64
              0
              3

            
              3
              2
              156.68
              146.64
              1
              147.52
              150.39
              1
              2

            
              3
              3
              188.65
              149.72
              4
              144.08
              155.56
              1
              1

            
              3
              4
              144.08
              155.56
              3
              188.65
              149.72
              0
              4

            
              3
              5
              131.28
              129.99
              6
              146.12
              130.31
              0
              10

            
              3
              6
              146.12
              130.31
              5
              131.28
              129.99
              1
              6

            
              3
              7
              114.66
              138.72
              10
              90.73
              116.63
              1
              5

            
              3
              10
              90.73
              116.63
              7
              114.66
              138.72
              0
              8

            
              3
              8
              123.02
              137.63
              9
              170.41
              151.44
              0
              9

            
              3
              9
              170.41
              151.44
              8
              123.02
              137.63
              1
              7

            
              4
              1
              181.44
              157.66
              3
              189.42
              157.75
              0
              3

            
              4
              3
              189.42
              157.75
              1
              181.44
              157.66
              1
              1

            
              4
              2
              144.64
              134.09
              10
              181.99
              135.87
              0
              2

            
              4
              10
              181.99
              135.87
              2
              144.64
              134.09
              1
              8

            
              4
              4
              160.01
              144.32
              9
              142.15
              146.32
              1
              4

            
              4
              9
              142.15
              146.32
              4
              160.01
              144.32
              0
              7

            
              4
              5
              133.32
              132.57
              7
              121.85
              114.59
              1
              10

            
              4
              7
              121.85
              114.59
              5
              133.32
              132.57
              0
              5

            
              4
              6
              139.49
              138.97
              8
              142.66
              133.64
              0
              6

            
              4
              8
              142.66
              133.64
              6
              139.49
              138.97
              1
              9

            
              5
              1
              124.63
              141.89
              4
              135.95
              134.73
              0
              3

            
              5
              4
              135.95
              134.73
              1
              124.63
              141.89
              1
              4

            
              5
              2
              135.33
              130.71
              3
              187.33
              155.44
              0
              2

            
              5
              3
              187.33
              155.44
              2
              135.33
              130.71
              1
              1

            
              5
              5
              106.74
              123.63
              10
              171.87
              144.79
              0
              10

            
              5
              10
              171.87
              144.79
              5
              106.74
              123.63
              1
              8

            
              5
              6
              136.95
              142.83
              9
              130.54
              150.23
              1
              6

            
              5
              9
              130.54
              150.23
              6
              136.95
              142.83
              0
              7

            
              5
              7
              123.82
              123.64
              8
              94.1
              122.98
              1
              5

            
              5
              8
              94.1
              122.98
              7
              123.82
              123.64
              0
              9

            
              6
              1
              147.11
              143.7
              9
              153.76
              155.81
              0
              3

            
              6
              9
              153.76
              155.81
              1
              147.11
              143.7
              1
              7

            
              6
              2
              155.13
              147.99
              7
              119.34
              136.68
              1
              2

            
              6
              7
              119.34
              136.68
              2
              155.13
              147.99
              0
              5

            
              6
              3
              163.92
              157.45
              10
              119.92
              144.86
              1
              1

            
              6
              10
              119.92
              144.86
              3
              163.92
              157.45
              0
              8

            
              6
              4
              110.37
              120.06
              6
              137.84
              120.24
              0
              4

            
              6
              6
              137.84
              120.24
              4
              110.37
              120.06
              1
              6

            
              6
              5
              107.58
              137.98
              8
              135.63
              133.54
              0
              10

            
              6
              8
              135.63
              133.54
              5
              107.58
              137.98
              1
              9

            
              7
              1
              128.47
              132.96
              10
              154.93
              131.28
              0
              3

            
              7
              10
              154.93
              131.28
              1
              128.47
              132.96
              1
              8

            
              7
              2
              141.94
              145.21
              8
              98.01
              127.46
              1
              2

            
              7
              8
              98.01
              127.46
              2
              141.94
              145.21
              0
              9

            
              7
              3
              150.5
              135.63
              6
              132.69
              130.11
              1
              1

            
              7
              6
              132.69
              130.11
              3
              150.5
              135.63
              0
              6

            
              7
              4
              79.12
              138.17
              7
              135.06
              137.61
              0
              4

            
              7
              7
              135.06
              137.61
              4
              79.12
              138.17
              1
              5

            
              7
              5
              83.27
              126.55
              9
              151.15
              156.6
              0
              10

            
              7
              9
              151.15
              156.6
              5
              83.27
              126.55
              1
              7

            
              8
              1
              144.07
              150.06
              8
              120.59
              117.42
              1
              3

            
              8
              8
              120.59
              117.42
              1
              144.07
              150.06
              0
              9

            
              8
              2
              163.94
              166.14
              5
              88.36
              102.82
              1
              2

            
              8
              5
              88.36
              102.82
              2
              163.94
              166.14
              0
              10

            
              8
              3
              123.77
              149.66
              10
              113.35
              107.34
              1
              1

            
              8
              10
              113.35
              107.34
              3
              123.77
              149.66
              0
              8

            
              8
              4
              186.05
              152.93
              6
              139.4
              139.71
              1
              4

            
              8
              6
              139.4
              139.71
              4
              186.05
              152.93
              0
              6

            
              8
              7
              125.13
              127.32
              9
              123.58
              141.27
              1
              5

            
              8
              9
              123.58
              141.27
              7
              125.13
              127.32
              0
              7

            
              9
              1
              163.12
              164.27
              7
              164.67
              130.87
              0
              3

            
              9
              7
              164.67
              130.87
              1
              163.12
              164.27
              1
              5

            
              9
              2
              155.2
              140.87
              6
              135.97
              126.24
              1
              2

            
              9
              6
              135.97
              126.24
              2
              155.2
              140.87
              0
              6

            
              9
              3
              182.08
              161.4
              8
              144.48
              113.58
              1
              1

            
              9
              8
              144.48
              113.58
              3
              182.08
              161.4
              0
              9

            
              9
              4
              166.06
              127.68
              5
              124.2
              126.69
              1
              4

            
              9
              5
              124.2
              126.69
              4
              166.06
              127.68
              0
              10

            
              9
              9
              113.84
              148.7
              10
              138.76
              134.27
              0
              7

            
              9
              10
              138.76
              134.27
              9
              113.84
              148.7
              1
              8

            
              10
              1
              120.25
              159.22
              6
              134.49
              125.48
              0
              3

            
              10
              6
              134.49
              125.48
              1
              120.25
              159.22
              1
              6

            
              10
              2
              118.92
              151.74
              4
              138.18
              139.92
              0
              2

            
              10
              4
              138.18
              139.92
              2
              118.92
              151.74
              1
              4

            
              10
              3
              182.45
              158.33
              5
              87.08
              111.09
              1
              1

            
              10
              5
              87.08
              111.09
              3
              182.45
              158.33
              0
              10

            
              10
              7
              106.04
              145.29
              9
              124
              143.23
              0
              5

            
              10
              9
              124
              143.23
              7
              106.04
              145.29
              1
              7

            
              10
              8
              144.2
              140.19
              10
              139.78
              137.81
              1
              9

            
              10
              10
              139.78
              137.81
              8
              144.2
              140.19
              0
              8

            
              11
              1
              167.78
              136.78
              5
              142.16
              116.77
              1
              3

            
              11
              5
              142.16
              116.77
              1
              167.78
              136.78
              0
              10

            
              11
              2
              143.88
              140.19
              9
              103.83
              118.38
              1
              2

            
              11
              9
              103.83
              118.38
              2
              143.88
              140.19
              0
              7

            
              11
              3
              114.66
              167.43
              7
              146.51
              137
              0
              1

            
              11
              7
              146.51
              137
              3
              114.66
              167.43
              1
              5

            
              11
              4
              145.35
              124.91
              10
              126.93
              130.77
              1
              4

            
              11
              10
              126.93
              130.77
              4
              145.35
              124.91
              0
              8

            
              11
              6
              116.43
              119.08
              8
              121.53
              134.13
              0
              6

            
              11
              8
              121.53
              134.13
              6
              116.43
              119.08
              1
              9

            
              12
              1
              187.68
              160.14
              2
              144.38
              136.85
              1
              3

            
              12
              2
              144.38
              136.85
              1
              187.68
              160.14
              0
              2

            
              12
              3
              164.22
              156.43
              6
              131.73
              119.23
              1
              1

            
              12
              6
              131.73
              119.23
              3
              164.22
              156.43
              0
              6

            
              12
              4
              130.39
              139.7
              5
              130.73
              130.42
              0
              4

            
              12
              5
              130.73
              130.42
              4
              130.39
              139.7
              1
              10

            
              12
              7
              117.27
              140.79
              10
              165.15
              133.37
              0
              5

            
              12
              10
              165.15
              133.37
              7
              117.27
              140.79
              1
              8

            
              12
              8
              118.44
              124.06
              9
              184.7
              149.73
              0
              9

            
              12
              9
              184.7
              149.73
              8
              118.44
              124.06
              1
              7

            
              13
              1
              160.88
              158.33
              9
              160.01
              147.85
              1
              3

            
              13
              9
              160.01
              147.85
              1
              160.88
              158.33
              0
              7

            
              13
              2
              197.49
              148.27
              3
              154.59
              164.04
              1
              2

            
              13
              3
              154.59
              164.04
              2
              197.49
              148.27
              0
              1

            
              13
              4
              189.44
              146.05
              7
              138.8
              136.58
              1
              4

            
              13
              7
              138.8
              136.58
              4
              189.44
              146.05
              0
              5

            
              13
              5
              103.85
              115.86
              8
              112.65
              111.68
              0
              10

            
              13
              8
              112.65
              111.68
              5
              103.85
              115.86
              1
              9

            
              13
              6
              126.4
              135.15
              10
              106.17
              136.94
              1
              6

            
              13
              10
              106.17
              136.94
              6
              126.4
              135.15
              0
              8
	library(reshape)

	matchups <- read.csv('league-matchups.csv') # dont forget to set working directory or change the full path

	league.sd <- sd(matchups$team_actual_points)
	league.mean <- mean(matchups$team_actual_points)
	weeks <- max(matchups$week)

	team.melted <- melt(matchups, id.vars="place", measure.vars="team_actual_points")
	places <- cast(team.melted, place ~ variable, fun.aggregate=mean)$place
	team_mean <- cast(team.melted, place ~ variable, fun.aggregate=mean)$team_actual_points
	team_sd <- cast(team.melted, place ~ variable, fun.aggregate=sd)$team_actual_points

	opp.melted = melt(matchups, id.vars="place", measure.vars="opp_actual_points")
	opp_mean <- cast(opp.melted, place ~ variable, fun.aggregate=mean)$opp_actual_points
	opp_sd <- cast(opp.melted, place ~ variable, fun.aggregate=sd)$opp_actual_points

	standings.melted <- melt(matchups, id.vars="place", measure.vars="win")
	wins <- cast(standings.melted, place ~ variable, fun.aggregate=sum)$win
	losses <- weeks - wins
	winpct <- wins / (wins + losses)
	pyth_opp <- 1 / (1 + ((opp_mean / team_mean) ^ 2))

	results <- as.data.frame(cbind(places, team_mean, team_sd, opp_mean, opp_sd, wins, losses, winpct, pyth_opp))
	colnames(results) <- cbind("place", "team_mean", "team_sd", "opp_mean", "opp_sd", "wins", "losses", "winpct", "pyth_opp")
	print(results)

	plot(results$team_sd, results$team_mean, xlab="Std.Dev. (Risk)", ylab="Actual Points", main="Actual Points vs Risk")
	abline(h=league.mean, v=league.sd, col="gray", lty="dashed")
	points(league.sd, league.mean, col="red")
	text(league.sd, league.mean, "League", pos=4, col="red")
	text(results$team_sd, results$team_mean, results$place, pos=4)

	plot(results$pyth_opp, results$winpct, xlab="Pythagorean Expectation", ylab="Actual Winning Pct", main="Win Percentage (Actual vs Estimated)")
	text(results$pyth_opp, results$winpct, results$place, pos=4)
	abline(coef(lm(winpct ~ pyth_opp, results)), col='red', lty="dashed")
week	team_id	team_actual_points	team_expected_points	opp_id	opp_actual_points	opp_projected_points	win	place
1	1	157.33	141.7	8	129.58	113.46	1	3
1	8	129.58	113.46	1	157.33	141.7	0	9
1	2	126.7	134.49	5	168.69	141.57	0	2
1	5	168.69	141.57	2	126.7	134.49	1	10
1	3	187.93	148.87	9	151.22	123.89	1	1
1	9	151.22	123.89	3	187.93	148.87	0	7
1	4	138.12	126.23	10	136.43	102.54	1	4
1	10	136.43	102.54	4	138.12	126.23	0	8
1	6	116.59	119.39	7	159.32	144.37	0	6
1	7	159.32	144.37	6	116.59	119.39	1	5
2	1	169.87	142.63	5	107.97	156.81	1	3
2	5	107.97	156.81	1	169.87	142.63	0	10
2	2	187.72	137.29	9	159.04	143.6	1	2
2	9	159.04	143.6	2	187.72	137.29	0	7
2	3	154.1	156.66	7	180.35	144.85	0	1
2	7	180.35	144.85	3	154.1	156.66	1	5
2	4	176.77	142.5	8	168.98	138.45	1	4
2	8	168.98	138.45	4	176.77	142.5	0	9
2	6	126.66	146.01	10	122.54	132.18	1	6
2	10	122.54	132.18	6	126.66	146.01	0	8
3	1	147.52	150.39	2	156.68	146.64	0	3
3	2	156.68	146.64	1	147.52	150.39	1	2
3	3	188.65	149.72	4	144.08	155.56	1	1
3	4	144.08	155.56	3	188.65	149.72	0	4
3	5	131.28	129.99	6	146.12	130.31	0	10
3	6	146.12	130.31	5	131.28	129.99	1	6
3	7	114.66	138.72	10	90.73	116.63	1	5
3	10	90.73	116.63	7	114.66	138.72	0	8
3	8	123.02	137.63	9	170.41	151.44	0	9
3	9	170.41	151.44	8	123.02	137.63	1	7
4	1	181.44	157.66	3	189.42	157.75	0	3
4	3	189.42	157.75	1	181.44	157.66	1	1
4	2	144.64	134.09	10	181.99	135.87	0	2
4	10	181.99	135.87	2	144.64	134.09	1	8
4	4	160.01	144.32	9	142.15	146.32	1	4
4	9	142.15	146.32	4	160.01	144.32	0	7
4	5	133.32	132.57	7	121.85	114.59	1	10
4	7	121.85	114.59	5	133.32	132.57	0	5
4	6	139.49	138.97	8	142.66	133.64	0	6
4	8	142.66	133.64	6	139.49	138.97	1	9
5	1	124.63	141.89	4	135.95	134.73	0	3
5	4	135.95	134.73	1	124.63	141.89	1	4
5	2	135.33	130.71	3	187.33	155.44	0	2
5	3	187.33	155.44	2	135.33	130.71	1	1
5	5	106.74	123.63	10	171.87	144.79	0	10
5	10	171.87	144.79	5	106.74	123.63	1	8
5	6	136.95	142.83	9	130.54	150.23	1	6
5	9	130.54	150.23	6	136.95	142.83	0	7
5	7	123.82	123.64	8	94.1	122.98	1	5
5	8	94.1	122.98	7	123.82	123.64	0	9
6	1	147.11	143.7	9	153.76	155.81	0	3
6	9	153.76	155.81	1	147.11	143.7	1	7
6	2	155.13	147.99	7	119.34	136.68	1	2
6	7	119.34	136.68	2	155.13	147.99	0	5
6	3	163.92	157.45	10	119.92	144.86	1	1
6	10	119.92	144.86	3	163.92	157.45	0	8
6	4	110.37	120.06	6	137.84	120.24	0	4
6	6	137.84	120.24	4	110.37	120.06	1	6
6	5	107.58	137.98	8	135.63	133.54	0	10
6	8	135.63	133.54	5	107.58	137.98	1	9
7	1	128.47	132.96	10	154.93	131.28	0	3
7	10	154.93	131.28	1	128.47	132.96	1	8
7	2	141.94	145.21	8	98.01	127.46	1	2
7	8	98.01	127.46	2	141.94	145.21	0	9
7	3	150.5	135.63	6	132.69	130.11	1	1
7	6	132.69	130.11	3	150.5	135.63	0	6
7	4	79.12	138.17	7	135.06	137.61	0	4
7	7	135.06	137.61	4	79.12	138.17	1	5
7	5	83.27	126.55	9	151.15	156.6	0	10
7	9	151.15	156.6	5	83.27	126.55	1	7
8	1	144.07	150.06	8	120.59	117.42	1	3
8	8	120.59	117.42	1	144.07	150.06	0	9
8	2	163.94	166.14	5	88.36	102.82	1	2
8	5	88.36	102.82	2	163.94	166.14	0	10
8	3	123.77	149.66	10	113.35	107.34	1	1
8	10	113.35	107.34	3	123.77	149.66	0	8
8	4	186.05	152.93	6	139.4	139.71	1	4
8	6	139.4	139.71	4	186.05	152.93	0	6
8	7	125.13	127.32	9	123.58	141.27	1	5
8	9	123.58	141.27	7	125.13	127.32	0	7
9	1	163.12	164.27	7	164.67	130.87	0	3
9	7	164.67	130.87	1	163.12	164.27	1	5
9	2	155.2	140.87	6	135.97	126.24	1	2
9	6	135.97	126.24	2	155.2	140.87	0	6
9	3	182.08	161.4	8	144.48	113.58	1	1
9	8	144.48	113.58	3	182.08	161.4	0	9
9	4	166.06	127.68	5	124.2	126.69	1	4
9	5	124.2	126.69	4	166.06	127.68	0	10
9	9	113.84	148.7	10	138.76	134.27	0	7
9	10	138.76	134.27	9	113.84	148.7	1	8
10	1	120.25	159.22	6	134.49	125.48	0	3
10	6	134.49	125.48	1	120.25	159.22	1	6
10	2	118.92	151.74	4	138.18	139.92	0	2
10	4	138.18	139.92	2	118.92	151.74	1	4
10	3	182.45	158.33	5	87.08	111.09	1	1
10	5	87.08	111.09	3	182.45	158.33	0	10
10	7	106.04	145.29	9	124	143.23	0	5
10	9	124	143.23	7	106.04	145.29	1	7
10	8	144.2	140.19	10	139.78	137.81	1	9
10	10	139.78	137.81	8	144.2	140.19	0	8
11	1	167.78	136.78	5	142.16	116.77	1	3
11	5	142.16	116.77	1	167.78	136.78	0	10
11	2	143.88	140.19	9	103.83	118.38	1	2
11	9	103.83	118.38	2	143.88	140.19	0	7
11	3	114.66	167.43	7	146.51	137	0	1
11	7	146.51	137	3	114.66	167.43	1	5
11	4	145.35	124.91	10	126.93	130.77	1	4
11	10	126.93	130.77	4	145.35	124.91	0	8
11	6	116.43	119.08	8	121.53	134.13	0	6
11	8	121.53	134.13	6	116.43	119.08	1	9
12	1	187.68	160.14	2	144.38	136.85	1	3
12	2	144.38	136.85	1	187.68	160.14	0	2
12	3	164.22	156.43	6	131.73	119.23	1	1
12	6	131.73	119.23	3	164.22	156.43	0	6
12	4	130.39	139.7	5	130.73	130.42	0	4
12	5	130.73	130.42	4	130.39	139.7	1	10
12	7	117.27	140.79	10	165.15	133.37	0	5
12	10	165.15	133.37	7	117.27	140.79	1	8
12	8	118.44	124.06	9	184.7	149.73	0	9
12	9	184.7	149.73	8	118.44	124.06	1	7
13	1	160.88	158.33	9	160.01	147.85	1	3
13	9	160.01	147.85	1	160.88	158.33	0	7
13	2	197.49	148.27	3	154.59	164.04	1	2
13	3	154.59	164.04	2	197.49	148.27	0	1
13	4	189.44	146.05	7	138.8	136.58	1	4
13	7	138.8	136.58	4	189.44	146.05	0	5
13	5	103.85	115.86	8	112.65	111.68	0	10
13	8	112.65	111.68	5	103.85	115.86	1	9
13	6	126.4	135.15	10	106.17	136.94	1	6
13	10	106.17	136.94	6	126.4	135.15	0	8