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sd-news-item.js
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"body_html" : "<h2>General outlook</h2><blockquote>Investors’ main concern is that key central banks are shifting towards tighter monetary policy and the US Federal Reserve may be less inclined in future to act to support equity markets.</blockquote><p>Developed market growth has been cooling a little but its recent trend has been robust and supportive for equity markets. In addition, emerging markets continue to grow strongly. Similarly, concerns about rising inflationary pressure have eased since the beginning of the year, when stronger than expected US wage growth jolted markets.</p><p>Investors’ main concern is that key central banks are shifting towards tighter monetary policy and the US Federal Reserve may be less inclined in future to act to support equity markets. It is unclear how central banks’ unwinding of monetary stimulus will affect economies, and indeed what level of withdrawal is feasible in practice given its magnitude.</p><p>We believe that even small interventions by central banks can have a significant impact on sentiment-driven markets that are near the top of the cycle. Similarly, unexpected shifts in macroeconomic data could rock markets because of the dependence on momentum - this is typical late- cycle behaviour.</p><p>These factors reinforce our opinion that the current economic cycle still has some life but that the beginning of the end is coming into view, with a market turn perhaps 6-18 months away.</p><div class=\"media-block\"><img src=\"https://superdesk-fidelity.s3-eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/sd-fidelity-uat/2018053018050/0c99d11813cecd54afd508e46739548196354b7070934d408e393254c2af24b6.png\" alt=\"Source: Datastream April\" /><span class=\"media-block__description\">Source: Datastream April</span></div><h2>Sectors and regions</h2><div class=\"media-block\"><img src=\"https://superdesk-fidelity.s3-eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/sd-fidelity-uat/2018053018054/77ab005b9ae900c1c97e7ecdb6e5e64a75cefcb19b4e070a44d89109458568af.png\" alt=\"Source: Fidelity International, April\" /><span class=\"media-block__description\">Source: Fidelity International, April</span></div><p>Although the ‘Goldilocks’ economic scenario of above-trend growth and below-trend inflation remains intact, recent company earnings reports show the effects of increased wage inflation and some pressure in distribution and transportation costs from a higher oil price, particularly in the US. This strengthens our view that cyclical sectors will not be able to maintain their outperformance over defensives and we note recent signs that this is, indeed, reversing. In this environment, being more selective about where and how you take risk is prudent.</p><blockquote>This strengthens our view that cyclical sectors will not be able to maintain their outperformance over defensives and we note recent signs that this is, indeed, reversing.</blockquote><p>In the US, FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet (Google)) remain highly valued and, unusually, the group led into, as well as out of, the market corrections in February and March. This could partly be due to the influence of the US tax breaks. The FAANG’s strong performance has led to a concentration of US market returns, which creates risk - but also opportunities for re-rating in the underappreciated parts of the US market.</p><p>In Europe, markets have a broader base of support, which makes us more positive on the region. In China, we expect the economy to slow gradually but this has largely been priced into markets, and the Chinese government has historically been able to carefully manage the economy. Japan could prove volatile given its high exposure to global trends.</p><p>In terms of sectors, we are cautious on consumer discretionary. In particular, we are concerned about auto stocks, where profits are peaking and finances are deteriorating, and retailers, which face headwinds from more restrained consumer spending. These industries constitute a significant part of the sector, leading to our negative view on consumer discretionary. In energy, prices should be range-bound and we do not expect undersupply or oil price shocks, and given that the oil majors have de-rated, there is scope for upgrades in the sector.</p>",
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"text" : "Equity markets are returning to more normal levels of volatility, but even ‘normal’ has come as a shock to investors who have been cushioned by a long period of unusually calm conditions. We think we are entering the end of the cycle, but this stage could be drawn out given healthy fundamentals.",
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