2020 presidential election

gistfile1.txt

AZ: (0.3804329085751007, 0.6195670914248993, 332493.15068493155, 541493.1506849315, -209000.00000000003)
FL: (0.6779600278494492, 0.3220399721505508, 727637.3626373624, 345637.36263736244, 381999.99999999994)
GA: (0.5798898071625344, 0.42011019283746565, 1219448.2758620693, 883448.2758620695, 335999.99999999977)
IA: (0.43084455324357407, 0.5691554467564259, 352000.0, 465000.0, -112999.99999999997)
MI: (0.5424654351109562, 0.45753456488904376, 1628720.9302325586, 1373720.9302325582, 255000.0000000003)
NC: (0.6079855936413314, 0.3920144063586686, 208319.14893617015, 134319.14893617015, 74000.00000000003)
OH: (0.6330845907837039, 0.36691540921629606, 711172.8395061726, 412172.8395061726, 299000.0)
PA: (0.5496743418035043, 0.4503256581964957, 1997333.333333333, 1636333.333333333, 361000.0)
TX: (0.5517922189231381, 0.4482077810768619, 2002944.444444445, 1626944.444444445, 375999.99999999994)
WI: (0.5267461143892939, 0.47325388561070614, 718842.105263158, 645842.105263158, 73000.00000000007)

This shows Biden carrying Arizona and Iowa and losing Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin.

Florida, for example, shows Biden needing to get 67.7% of the remaining votes to catch up the 382k votes he would ned to get to tie.

swing.py

#!/usr/bin/env python3

def swing(a, b, p):
    total = (a + b) / p
    remaining = total - (a + b)
    x = (remaining + b - a) / (2 * remaining)
    return (x, 1 - x, x * remaining, (1 - x) * remaining, (2 * x - 1) * remaining)


print(f'AZ: {swing(1.286e6, 1.077e6, 0.73)}')
print(f'FL: {swing(5.235e6, 5.617e6, 0.91)}')
print(f'GA: {swing(1.284e6, 1.620e6, 0.58)}')
print(f'IA: {swing(0.465e6, 0.352e6, 0.50)}')
print(f'MI: {swing(1.005e6, 1.260e6, 0.43)}')
print(f'NC: {swing(2.647e6, 2.721e6, 0.94)}')
print(f'OH: {swing(2.245e6, 2.544e6, 0.81)}')
print(f'PA: {swing(1.306e6, 1.667e6, 0.45)}')
print(f'TX: {swing(4.479e6, 4.855e6, 0.72)}')
print(f'WI: {swing(0.868e6, 0.941e6, 0.57)}')

#!/usr/bin/env python3

def swing(biden_votes, trump_votes, percentage_counted):
so_far = biden_votes + trump_votes
total = so_far / percentage_counted
remaining = total - so_far
biden_p = 0.5 + (trump_votes - biden_votes) / (2.0 * remaining)
trump_p = 1 - biden_p
return (biden_p, trump_p, biden_p * remaining, trump_p * remaining, (2 * biden_p - 1) * remaining)

print(f'AZ: {swing(1.304e6, 1.114e6, 0.74)}')
print(f'FL: {swing(5.257e6, 5.638e6, 0.98)}')
print(f'GA: {swing(1.814e6, 2.086e6, 0.79)}')
print(f'IA: {swing(0.782e6, 0.682e6, 0.90)}')
print(f'MI: {swing(1.228e6, 1.546e6, 0.53)}')
print(f'NC: {swing(2.655e6, 2.730e6, 0.94)}')
print(f'OH: {swing(2.530e6, 2.996e6, 0.94)}')
print(f'PA: {swing(1.650e6, 2.247e6, 0.59)}')
print(f'TX: {swing(4.825e6, 5.399e6, 0.79)}')
print(f'WI: {swing(1.130e6, 1.241e6, 0.75)}')

AZ: (0.38817840554813265, 0.6118215944518673, 329783.7837837839, 519783.7837837839, -189999.99999999994)
FL: (1.3567691601652156, -0.35676916016521565, 301673.4693877548, -79326.53061224519, 380999.99999999994)
GA: (0.6311843711843712, 0.3688156288156288, 654354.430379747, 382354.4303797469, 272000.0000000001)
IA: (0.19262295081967185, 0.8073770491803282, 31333.333333333256, 131333.33333333326, -100000.0)
MI: (0.564635137830002, 0.43536486216999803, 1388981.132075471, 1070981.1320754716, 317999.99999999977)
NC: (0.6090993500464252, 0.39090064995357476, 209361.70212765972, 134361.70212765966, 75000.00000000004)
OH: (1.1605742550367952, -0.16057425503679523, 409361.7021276597, -56638.29787234028, 465999.99999999994)
PA: (0.6102255017931242, 0.3897744982068758, 1652542.3728813562, 1055542.3728813562, 597000.0000000002)
TX: (0.6056011997913406, 0.39439880020865936, 1645886.0759493671, 1071886.0759493671, 574000.0)
WI: (0.570223534373682, 0.429776465626318, 450666.66666666674, 339666.66666666674, 111000.00000000004)

Biden is behind by more votes in Ohio than there are left to be cast. Ohio has been called for Trump.
Biden is behind by more votes in Florida than are left uncounted. But no one has called Florida yet.