Created
August 17, 2012 09:14
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Probability distribution of continuous stream of random numbers vs probability distribution of sporadic picks of a continuous stream of random numbers
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EXPERIMENTS_COUNT = 100000 | |
PICKED_MATCH_COUNT = 5 | |
DISREGARD_PICK_PROBABILITY = 0.26 | |
pg = ProviderSelection::PriorityGroup.new(0) | |
pg.matches << ProviderSelection::Match.new(nil, -100) | |
pg.matches << ProviderSelection::Match.new(nil, 0) | |
# Continuous stream of random numbers | |
result_continuous = [] | |
1.upto(EXPERIMENTS_COUNT) do | |
result = Hash.new(0) | |
while(result.values.sum < PICKED_MATCH_COUNT) | |
result[pg.matches.find_index(pg.get_random_match)] += 1 | |
end | |
result_continuous << result | |
end | |
# Sporadic picks of the continuous stream of random numbers | |
result_sporadic = [] | |
1.upto(EXPERIMENTS_COUNT) do | |
result = Hash.new(0) | |
while(result.values.sum < PICKED_MATCH_COUNT) | |
# We are disregarding at least every other output of rand() since we are calling it in the condition | |
# How many of the remaining rand() calls we disregard is defined by DISREGARD_PICK_PROBABILITY | |
result[pg.matches.find_index(pg.get_random_match)] += 1 if rand > DISREGARD_PICK_PROBABILITY | |
end | |
result_sporadic << result | |
end | |
# Display the result | |
complete_prob_of_0 = result_continuous.sum{ |result| result[0] }.to_f / EXPERIMENTS_COUNT | |
complete_prob_of_1 = result_continuous.sum{ |result| result[1] }.to_f / EXPERIMENTS_COUNT | |
sporadic_prob_of_0 = result_sporadic.sum{ |result| result[0] }.to_f / EXPERIMENTS_COUNT | |
sporadic_prob_of_1 = result_sporadic.sum{ |result| result[1] }.to_f / EXPERIMENTS_COUNT | |
puts "Probability of picking the 1st in continuous: #{complete_prob_of_0}" | |
puts "Probability of picking the 2nd in continuous: #{complete_prob_of_1}" | |
puts "The ratio of the 2 pick: #{complete_prob_of_0.to_f / complete_prob_of_1}" | |
puts "Probability of picking the 1st in sporadic: #{sporadic_prob_of_0}" | |
puts "Probability of picking the 2nd in sporadic: #{sporadic_prob_of_1}" | |
puts "The ratio of the 2 pick: #{sporadic_prob_of_0.to_f / sporadic_prob_of_1}" |
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