Were there too many sensations in Qatar? What if I bet the same amount against the odds in all the group-stage games?

odds-qatar.R

#===============================================================================
# 2022-12-03 -- misc
# World Cup games odds
# Ilya Kashnitsky, ilya.kashnitsky@gmail.com, @ikashnitsky
#===============================================================================

library(tidyverse)
library(magrittr)
library(rvest)
library(ggrepel)
library(sysfonts)
library(showtext)
library(prismatic)

sysfonts::font_add_google("Atkinson Hyperlegible", "ah")
showtext_auto()

# Data come from:
# https://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/world/world-cup-2022/results/

odds <- read_delim("https://gist.githubusercontent.com/ikashnitsky/aa56f8d30046c44d3f59c0047033e820/raw/fce43c649ec7c76357c7082577148551b9ef8574/raw-data.txt") %>%
    set_names(letters[1:5]) %>%
    filter(! seq_along(a) %in% c(seq(5, 55, 5), 59)) %>%
    separate(b, into = c("team_1", "team_2"), sep = " - ") %>%
    separate(c, into = c("goals_1", "goals_2")) %>%
    separate(e, into = c("odds_draw", "odds_2", "waste"), sep = "\t") %>%
    transmute(
        team_1, team_2,
        goals_1 = goals_1 %>% as.numeric,
        goals_2 = goals_2 %>% as.numeric,
        odds_1 = d,
        odds_draw = odds_draw %>% as.numeric,
        odds_2 = odds_2 %>% as.numeric
    )

pred <- odds %>%
    mutate(
        outcome = case_when(
            goals_1 > goals_2 ~ "team_1",
            goals_1 < goals_2 ~ "team_2",
            TRUE ~ "draw"
        )
    ) %>%
    group_by(id = 49 - seq_along(team_1)) %>%
    mutate(my_bet = max(odds_1, odds_draw, odds_2)) %>%
    ungroup() %>%
    mutate(
        winning_bet = case_when(
            goals_1 > goals_2 ~ odds_1,
            goals_1 < goals_2 ~ odds_2,
            TRUE ~ odds_draw
            ),
        # THE LOGIC: whenever I lose the bet, I just lose 1 coin
        # whenever my unlikely bet works, I receive the odds amount
        # minus my initially risked coin
        win = case_when(
            my_bet == winning_bet ~ my_bet - 1,
            TRUE ~ -1
        )
    ) %>%
    arrange(id) %>%
    mutate(
        cum = win %>% cumsum()
    )

pred %>%
    filter(my_bet == winning_bet) %>%
    view()

set.seed(126)
pred %>%
    ggplot(aes(id, cum))+
    geom_hline(yintercept = c(0), size = .5, color = 2)+
    # geom_step(aes(id, id), size = 1, color = 7, alpha = .75)+
    geom_step(color = "#444444", alpha = .5)+
    geom_point(data = . %>% filter(my_bet == winning_bet))+
    geom_text_repel(
        data = . %>% filter(my_bet == winning_bet),
        aes(label = paste(team_1, goals_1, ":", goals_2, team_2)),
        size = 2.7, color = "#444444", hjust = 1, fontface = 2
    )+
    scale_x_continuous(breaks = c(seq(0, 40, 10),48), position = "top")+
    scale_y_continuous(position = "right")+
    labs(
        x = "All the group-stage games of FIFA World Cup 2022, ordered chronologically",
        y = "Net balance",
        title = "Were there too many sensations in Qatar?",
        caption = "\nData: oddsportal.com/soccer/world/world-cup-2022/results // Design: @ikashnitsky@fosstodon.org"
    )+
    theme_minimal(base_family = "ah")+
    theme(
        panel.grid.minor = element_blank(),
        plot.background = element_rect(fill = "#dadada", color = NA),
        plot.title = element_text(size = 22, face = 2, color = "#444444")
    )+
    annotate(
        "text", label = "Imagine, I put 1 coin per game betting against the odds" %>% str_wrap(32),
        size = 6.7, color = 2 %>% clr_darken(), alpha = .85,
        x = 1, y = 59, hjust = 0, vjust = 1,
        family = "ah", lineheight = .9, fontface = 2
    )+
    annotate(
        "text", label = "I start with a 0 net balance, and every game it reduces by one coin... unless a sensation happens and my balance increases as I win the unlikely bet" %>% str_wrap(42),
        size = 4, color = 2 %>% clr_darken(), alpha = .85,
        x = 1, y = 45, hjust = 0, vjust = 1,
        family = "ah", lineheight = .9
    )+
    annotate(
        "text", label = "If I'm above the zero line that means I'm in a net profit, benefiting from betting at the sensations" %>% str_wrap(35),
        size = 4.4, color = 2 %>% clr_darken(), alpha = .75,
        x = 47, y = 14, hjust = 1, vjust = 1,
        family = "ah", lineheight = .9
    )

raw-data.txt

Today, 02 Dec	1	X	2	B's

19.00	Cameroon - Brazil	01.00	8.93	5.32	1.36	18
19.00	Serbia - Switzerland	02.03	2.58	3.36	2.85	18
15.00	Ghana - Uruguay	00.02	4.49	3.82	1.79	18
15.00	South Korea - Portugal	02.01	4.26	3.84	1.85	18
Yesterday, 01 Dec	1	X	2	B's

19.00	Costa Rica - Germany	02.04	23.79	11.17	1.1	18
19.00	Japan - Spain	02.01	7.04	4.49	1.49	18
15.00	Canada - Morocco	01.02	4.78	3.49	1.84	18
15.00	Croatia - Belgium	00.00	3.02	3.41	2.44	18
30/Nov/22	1	X	2	B's

19.00	Poland - Argentina	00.02	8.2	4.57	1.44	18
19.00	Saudi Arabia - Mexico	01.02	5.35	4.28	1.62	18
15.00	Australia - Denmark	01.00	7.38	4.89	1.43	18
15.00	Tunisia - France	01.00	6.01	3.92	1.62	18
29/Nov/22	1	X	2	B's

19.00	Iran - USA	00.01	4.18	3.49	1.95	18
19.00	Wales - England	00.03	8.81	4.45	1.43	18
15.00	Ecuador - Senegal	01.02	2.48	3.08	3.23	18
15.00	Netherlands - Qatar	02.00	1.21	7	14.51	18
28/Nov/22	1	X	2	B's

19.00	Portugal - Uruguay	02.00	1.93	3.35	4.49	18
16.00	Brazil - Switzerland	01.00	1.5	4.28	7.6	18
13.00	South Korea - Ghana	02.03	2.76	3.13	2.8	18
10.00	Cameroon - Serbia	03.03	5.3	3.77	1.71	18
27/Nov/22	1	X	2	B's

19.00	Spain - Germany	01.01	2.54	3.42	2.84	18
16.00	Croatia - Canada	04.01	2.23	3.27	3.55	18
13.00	Belgium - Morocco	00.02	1.9	3.45	4.52	18
10.00	Japan - Costa Rica	00.01	1.49	4.32	7.47	18
26/Nov/22	1	X	2	B's

19.00	Argentina - Mexico	02.00	1.55	3.95	7.12	18
16.00	France - Denmark	02.01	1.82	3.6	4.84	18
13.00	Poland - Saudi Arabia	02.00	1.73	3.64	5.43	18
10.00	Tunisia - Australia	00.01	2.21	3.32	3.52	18
25/Nov/22	1	X	2	B's

19.00	England - USA	00.00	1.48	4.26	7.96	18
16.00	Netherlands - Ecuador	01.01	1.83	3.44	4.99	18
13.00	Qatar - Senegal	01.03	5.5	3.6	1.73	18
10.00	Wales - Iran	00.02	2.14	3.18	3.87	18
24/Nov/22	1	X	2	B's

19.00	Brazil - Serbia	02.00	1.47	4.57	7.23	18
16.00	Portugal - Ghana	03.02	1.32	5.49	10.21	18
13.00	Uruguay - South Korea	00.00	1.78	3.55	5.1	18
10.00	Switzerland - Cameroon	01.00	1.81	3.45	5.02	18
23/Nov/22	1	X	2	B's

19.00	Belgium - Canada	01.00	1.58	4.21	5.92	18
16.00	Spain - Costa Rica	07.00	1.16	8.42	17.43	18
13.00	Germany - Japan	01.02	1.45	4.85	7.28	18
10.00	Morocco - Croatia	00.00	3.57	3.28	2.21	18
22/Nov/22	1	X	2	B's

19.00	France - Australia	04.01	1.22	6.8	13.86	17
16.00	Mexico - Poland	00.00	2.51	3.13	3.14	17
13.00	Denmark - Tunisia	00.00	1.58	3.92	6.57	17
10.00	Argentina - Saudi Arabia	01.02	1.12	9.21	25.52	17
21/Nov/22	1	X	2	B's

19.00	USA - Wales	01.01	2.47	3.09	3.22	17
16.00	Senegal - Netherlands	00.02	6.1	3.67	1.66	17
13.00	England - Iran	06.02	1.38	4.65	10.2	17
20/Nov/22	1	X	2	B's

16.00	Qatar - Ecuador	00.02	3.71	3.14	2.24	17