MA Senate Projection

ma_senate_2012.R

#load the excellent methods to query polls
#linked to at http://alandgraf.blogspot.com/2012/11/quick-post-about-getting-and-plotting.html
source("https://raw.github.com/dlinzer/pollstR/master/pollsterAPI.R")

#get the MA Senate Race
datMass <- pollstR(chart="2012-massachusetts-senate-brown-vs-warren",pages="all")

#reshape the data for plotting
library(reshape2)
dm <- melt.data.frame(datMass, id.vars=c("start.date", "N"), measure.vars=c("Warren", "Brown"))

#plot the whole thing and fit a loess curve
qplot(start.date, value, data=dm, size=N, color=variable, group=variable) +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_color_manual("Candidate", values=c("blue", "red")) +
  scale_size_continuous("Sample Size") +
  stat_smooth(aes(weight=N)) +
  xlab("Poll Start Date") +
  ylab("Percentage")