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jennyknuth / model-description.md
Created Dec 8, 2022
temporary documentation for DstLIVE
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Dst Model Description

Overview

DstLive is a model for real-time predictions of the Dst Geomagnetic index. The 'ground-truth' for Dst is assumed to be the one issued by the World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto (https://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dstdir/).

DstLive predicts Dst from 1 to 6 hours ahead, with associated probabilities. The model is based on multi-fidelity boosted neural networks (Hu, Camporeale, Swiger, 2022), that ingest real-time data solar wind observed by ACE at the 1st Lagrangian point (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind). In addition, the time history of Dst is used.

Operational set up

The model requires the latest observed Dst to produce a forecast. However, that value is not immediately available at the top of an hour. Hence, the model runs every 15, 30, 45 minutes past the hour, checking if the Dst for that hour has been released from Kyoto. However, in the current version, forecasts are always issued for top of the hour times, regardless of whe

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