Simulates outcomes of electoral college votes

Trump.R

## Trump winning distribution using RealClear politics map
    # http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

TrumpVsClinton <- function(){
  
  set.seed(23952359)
  
  #Represents the toss-up states possible votes
  #NV, AZ,IA, WI, OH, VA, NC, GA, FL, NH, PA, GA, ME2
  statesVotingTossups = c( 6, 11, 6, 10, 18, 13, 15, 16, 29, 4, 20, 16, 1)
  
  #Represents states leaning republican
  #UT, TX, MO, MS, IN, SC, NE2
  statesVotingLeanRepub = c(6, 38, 10, 6, 11, 9, 1)
  
  #Represents states leaning dem
  #OR, CO, NM, MN, NJ, CT, ME
  statesVotingLeanDem = c(7, 9, 5, 10, 14, 7, 3)
  
  #Expected votes are Likely and Solid
  expectedClinton = 154  
  expectedTrump = 83
  
  #Produces a single outcome of 
  computeOutcome <- function(){
    #Simulate every state tossing up a win for either R or D
    tossUpOutcomes <- sample(c("R", "D"), length(statesVotingTossups), replace=TRUE)
    leanRepubOutcomes <- sample(c("R", "D"), length(statesVotingLeanRepub), prob=c(.9, .1), replace=TRUE)
    leanDemOutcomes <- sample(c("D", "R"), length(statesVotingLeanDem), prob=c(.9, .1), replace=TRUE)
    #Take the D toss up states and add their possible EC votes to the expected Clinton votes
    simulatedClintonVotes <- sum(statesVotingTossups[tossUpOutcomes == "D"]) 
      + sum(statesVotingLeanDem[leanDemOutcomes == "D"]) + sum(statesVotingLeanRepub[leanRepubOutcomes == "D"]) 
      + expectedClinton
    #Same with R states
    simulatedTrumpVotes <- sum(statesVotingTossups[tossUpOutcomes  == "R"]) 
    + sum(statesVotingLeanDem[leanDemOutcomes == "R"]) + sum(statesVotingLeanRepub[leanRepubOutcomes == "R"])
    + expectedTrump
    if ( simulatedClintonVotes > simulatedTrumpVotes) {
      return(TRUE)
    }
    return(FALSE)
  }
  
  simulateATrial <- function(iter=1000){
    demWins <- 0
    repWins <- 0
    for (i in 1:iter){
      if (computeOutcome()) {
        demWins <- demWins + 1
      } else {
        repWins <- repWins + 1
      }
    }
    return(c(demWins, repWins))
  }
  
  #Generates a list of [iter] simulations representing the number of times a candidate wins out of [trials] elections
  simulate <- function(runs=1000000, iter=1000){
    f = function(i){
      x = simulateATrial(iter);
      
      return(x)
    }
    flattened = unlist(lapply(1:iter, f))
    return(flattened)
  }
  
  simulateSmall <- function(){
    return(simulate(10000, 1000))
  }
  
  exports <- list(computeOutcome=computeOutcome, simulate=simulate, simulateSmall=simulateSmall)
  return(exports)
}