real-interest-rates

gistfile1.txt

library(tidyverse)
library(tidyquant)
library(timetk)
library(readxl)
library(plotly)
library(scales)
library(formattable)
library(fredr)
library(broom)
### Real Interest

```{r}
 ten_year_cpi_diff <- 
  "DGS10" %>%  
  tq_get(get= "economic.data", from = "1959-01-01") %>% 
 select(date, ten_year_daily = price)  %>% 
  summarise_by_time(
    .date_var = date, 
    .by = "month",
    ten_year_monthly = mean(ten_year_daily, na.rm = T)/100
  ) %>% 
  left_join(
"CPIAUCSL" %>% 
    tq_get(get= "economic.data", from = "1959-01-01") %>% 
 select(date, cpi = price) %>% 
  mutate(
    cpi_1_year_rate = cpi/lag(cpi, 12) - 1
    ) 
) %>% 
  mutate(real_rates = ten_year_monthly - cpi_1_year_rate)

library(patchwork)

chart_1 <- 
ten_year_cpi_diff %>% 
     mutate(col_pos = 
           if_else(real_rates > 0, 
                  real_rates, as.numeric(NA)),
         col_neg = 
           if_else(real_rates <= 0, 
                  real_rates, as.numeric(NA))) %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = date)) +
  geom_line(aes(y = col_neg),
               alpha = .85, 
               color = "darkred") +
  geom_line(aes(y = col_pos),
               alpha = .85,  
               color = "darkgreen") +
  # geom_line(aes(y =cpi_1_year_rate),
  #              alpha = .85,  
  #              color = "darkblue") +
  # geom_line(aes(y =ten_year_monthly),
  #              alpha = .85,  
  #              color = "darkorange") +
  theme_minimal() +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = percent_format(accuracy = 1),
                     breaks = pretty_breaks(10)) +
  scale_x_date(date_breaks = "5 years",
               date_labels = "%Y") +
  labs( x= "", y = "", title = "Real Interest Rates: 10Y monthly less CPI monthly YoY Rate",
        caption = "Source: FRED data and Author Chart")

chart_2 <- 
  ten_year_cpi_diff %>% 
     mutate(col_pos = 
           if_else(real_rates > 0, 
                  real_rates, as.numeric(NA)),
         col_neg = 
           if_else(real_rates <= 0, 
                  real_rates, as.numeric(NA))) %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = date)) +
  # geom_line(aes(y = col_neg),
  #              alpha = .85, 
  #              color = "darkred") +
  # geom_line(aes(y = col_pos),
  #              alpha = .85,  
  #              color = "darkgreen") +
  geom_line(aes(y =cpi_1_year_rate),
               alpha = .85,
               color = "darkblue") +
  geom_line(aes(y =ten_year_monthly),
               alpha = .85,
               color = "darkorange") +
  theme_minimal() +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = percent_format(accuracy = 1),
                     breaks = pretty_breaks(10)) +
  scale_x_date(date_breaks = "5 years",
               date_labels = "%Y") +
  labs( x= "", y = "", title = "10Y(orange) and CPI monthly YoY Rate (blue)",
        caption = "Source: FRED data and Author Chart")

chart_1/chart_2


```