leasehold-deflation-simulation.js

leasehold-deflation-simulation.js

const SIMULATION_DAYS = 366 * 5;
const MAX_USER_COUNT = 10000;

const INITIAL_PROPERTY_PORTFOLIO_VALUE_DOLLARS = 10000000;
const ANNUAL_PROPERTY_PORTFOLIO_VALUE_GROWTH = .05;
// const ANNUAL_PROPERTY_PORTFOLIO_VALUE_GROWTH = 0;

const ANNUAL_YIELD = 0.2;
const ANNUAL_PROFIT = INITIAL_PROPERTY_PORTFOLIO_VALUE_DOLLARS * ANNUAL_YIELD;

const INITIAL_TOTAL_TOKEN_SUPPLY = 100000000;
const INITIAL_TOKEN_PRICE_DOLLARS = INITIAL_PROPERTY_PORTFOLIO_VALUE_DOLLARS / INITIAL_TOTAL_TOKEN_SUPPLY;
// const INITIAL_TOKEN_PRICE_DOLLARS = 0.01;

const BUYBACK_RATIO = .8;

// 5% probability or higher gives stable daily prices. Lower than that can create volatility.
const USER_DAILY_SELL_PROBABILITY = .05;

// Higher divisor means users sell fewer tokens on average (they HODL more).
const USER_SALE_QTY_DIVISOR = 4;

const INITIAL_DAILY_BURN_DOLLARS = ANNUAL_PROFIT * BUYBACK_RATIO / 366;
const DAILY_PORTFOLIO_VALUE_GROWTH_MULTIPLIER = ANNUAL_PROPERTY_PORTFOLIO_VALUE_GROWTH / 366 + 1;
const USER_BASE_SELL_PERCENT_GRADIENT = 1 / MAX_USER_COUNT / USER_SALE_QTY_DIVISOR;

let userSellToBurnFunction = (dayIndex, user, allUsers, price, prevPrice) => {
  let percentOfBalanceToSell = Math.min(1, USER_BASE_SELL_PERCENT_GRADIENT * user.id);
  let percentChanceToSell = USER_DAILY_SELL_PROBABILITY / 2;

  let rand = Math.random();
  if (rand < percentChanceToSell) {
    let amountToSell = percentOfBalanceToSell * user.tokenBalance;
    user.dollarBalance += amountToSell * price;
    return amountToSell;
  }
  return 0;
};

let userSellToOtherUserFunction = (dayIndex, user, allUsers, price, prevPrice) => {
  let percentOfBalanceToSell = Math.min(1, USER_BASE_SELL_PERCENT_GRADIENT * user.id);
  let percentChanceToSell = USER_DAILY_SELL_PROBABILITY / 2;

  let rand = Math.random();
  if (rand < percentChanceToSell) {
    let amountToSell = percentOfBalanceToSell * user.tokenBalance;
    user.tokenBalance -= amountToSell;
    user.dollarBalance += amountToSell * price;
    let buyer = allUsers[Math.floor(Math.random() * allUsers.length)];
    buyer.tokenBalance += amountToSell;
    buyer.dollarBalance -= amountToSell * price;
  }
};

let totalSupply = INITIAL_TOTAL_TOKEN_SUPPLY;
let lastPrice = INITIAL_TOKEN_PRICE_DOLLARS;
let prevPrice = lastPrice;
let users = [];
let propertyPortfolioValue = INITIAL_PROPERTY_PORTFOLIO_VALUE_DOLLARS;

const INITIAL_MARKET_CAP =  totalSupply * lastPrice;

let supplyToDistribute = totalSupply;

// The equation used mirrors real global wealth distribution.
for (let i = 0; i < MAX_USER_COUNT; i++) {
  let tokenBalance = Math.min(supplyToDistribute, Math.max(0, 3500 / (i / 3500 + .002) + 1000));
  supplyToDistribute -= tokenBalance;
  users.push({
    id: i,
    address: `${i}LSH`,
    tokenBalance,
    dollarBalance: 0
  });
}

let dailyPrices = [];
let marketCap = totalSupply * lastPrice;
let burnDollarsForDay = INITIAL_DAILY_BURN_DOLLARS;

for (let i = 0; i < SIMULATION_DAYS; i++) {
  let totalSoldForDay = 0;
  for (let user of users) {
    let numberOfTokensToSell = userSellToBurnFunction(i, user, users, lastPrice, prevPrice);
    let amountToSell = Math.min(user.tokenBalance, numberOfTokensToSell);
    user.tokenBalance -= amountToSell;
    totalSoldForDay += amountToSell;
    // To appoximate users selling to each other.
    userSellToOtherUserFunction(i, user, users, lastPrice, prevPrice);
  }
  totalSupply -= totalSoldForDay;
  if (totalSoldForDay > 0) {
    prevPrice = lastPrice;
    lastPrice = burnDollarsForDay / totalSoldForDay;
  }
  burnDollarsForDay *= DAILY_PORTFOLIO_VALUE_GROWTH_MULTIPLIER;
  propertyPortfolioValue *= DAILY_PORTFOLIO_VALUE_GROWTH_MULTIPLIER;
  marketCap = totalSupply * lastPrice;
  console.log(`DAY ${i} TOTAL SOLD:`, totalSoldForDay, 'PRICE:', lastPrice);
  dailyPrices.push(lastPrice);
}

console.log('---------------');

for (let i = 999; i >= 0; i--) {
  console.log(`USER ${i}`, 'Token balance:', users[i].tokenBalance, 'Net worth:', `$${users[i].tokenBalance * lastPrice + users[i].dollarBalance}`);
}

console.log('---------------');

const formatThousands = function (num, precision, separator) {
  if (precision == null) {
    precision = 2;
  }
  let sign = num < 0 ? '-' : '';
  num = Math.abs(num);
  let pow = 10 ** precision;
  num = Math.round(num * pow) / pow;
  separator = separator || ',';
  let numParts = [];
  let paddingZero = '0';

  let fractionDecimals = num.toString().split('.')[1] || '';
  if (fractionDecimals.length) {
    fractionDecimals = '.' + fractionDecimals;
  }
  let remaining = Math.floor(num);
  if (remaining === 0) {
    return remaining + fractionDecimals;
  }

  let lastDigits;
  while (remaining !== 0) {
    lastDigits = (remaining % 1000).toString();
    remaining = Math.floor(remaining / 1000);
    if (remaining !== 0) {
      lastDigits = paddingZero.repeat(3 - lastDigits.length) + lastDigits;
    }
    numParts.push(lastDigits);
  }
  return sign + numParts.reverse().join(separator) + fractionDecimals;
}

console.log('INITIAL PROPERTY PORTFOLIO VALUE:', `$${formatThousands(INITIAL_PROPERTY_PORTFOLIO_VALUE_DOLLARS, 0)}`);
console.log('INITIAL MARKET CAP:', `$${formatThousands(INITIAL_MARKET_CAP, 0)}`);
console.log('DAILY BURN DOLLARS:', `$${formatThousands(INITIAL_DAILY_BURN_DOLLARS, 2)}`);

console.log('---------------');

console.log('FINAL PROPERTY PORTFOLIO VALUE:', `$${formatThousands(propertyPortfolioValue, 0)}`);
console.log('FINAL TOKEN SUPPLY:', formatThousands(totalSupply, 0));
console.log('FINAL TOKEN PRICE:', `$${formatThousands(lastPrice, 4)}`);
console.log('FINAL TOKEN MARKET CAP:', `$${formatThousands(marketCap, 0)}`);
console.log('TOKEN PRICE GROWTH:', `${formatThousands(Math.round((marketCap / INITIAL_MARKET_CAP - 1) * 100), 2)}%`);