FRM trajectories

library(tidyverse)
library(readxl)
library(lubridate)
library(ggdist)


historicalweeklydata <- 
  bind_rows(
    read_excel("~/Downloads/historicalweeklydata.xls", 
                                   sheet = "Full History", range = "a7:B4000"),
    read_excel("~/Downloads/historicalweeklydata.xls", 
                       sheet = "1PMMS2022", range = "A7:B100")
  )

historicalweeklydata %>%
  uncount(60*12, .id = "offset_mo") %>%
  mutate(offset_mo = offset_mo - 1) %>%
  mutate(Week_adj = as_date(Week + 60*60*24*30.5*(offset_mo))) %>%
  filter(Week_adj >= ymd(20220101), 
         Week_adj <= ymd(20240101)) %>%
  group_by(offset_mo) %>%
  mutate(FRM_chg = FRM - first(FRM)) %>% 
  ungroup() -> temp


temp %>%
  filter(Week_adj >= max(Week_adj[offset_mo == 0] - 6),
         Week_adj <= max(Week_adj[offset_mo == 0])) %>%
  mutate(var = FRM_chg - FRM_chg[offset_mo == 0]) %>%
  filter(abs(var) < 0.5, abs(var) != 0) %>%
  mutate(starts = Sys.Date() - 30.5*offset_mo) 
  select(offset_mo) %>%
  left_join(temp) %>%
 -> similar

ggplot(temp, aes(Week_adj, FRM_chg)) +
  geom_line(aes(group = offset_mo), alpha = 0.2, color = "gray40") +
  stat_lineribbon(.width = ppoints(90), alpha = 0.02, color = NA) +
  geomtextpath::geom_textline(data = similar, color = "darkgoldenrod4",
            aes(group = offset_mo, label = starts), hjust = 0.6,
            text_smoothing = 20, size = 2) +
  geom_line(data = . %>% filter(offset_mo == 0), size = 1.2) +
  theme_minimal() +
  guides(fill = "none")

ggsave("FRM distribution.png", width=7, height=4, dpi=300, 
       scale = 1.2, bg = "white")