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judell/gist:1e0538c580d511484dabbd3a8d41669b

Created September 19, 2016 23:44
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"text": "Overall scientific credibility: 'high', according to the 8 scientists who analyzed this article.\n\n![evaluation card](http://climatefeedback.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Oliver-Milman_the-Guardian_state-of-climate-2015.png)\n\nFind more details in the annotations below and in [Climate Feedback's analysis](http://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/environment-climate-change-records-broken-international-report-oliver-milman-the-guardian)\n\n",
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"text": "That is correct, see figure below: ![](http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/files/2015/08/Fig1_Grnlnd_Melt_n_Anom.png). There was an event in the beginning of July where ~50% of the ice sheet experienced melt. This is clearly outside of the expected natural variability, but does not necessarily project the overall Greenland summer (since such melt events are extremely episodic). Overall, Greenland experienced a warm summer, with slightly more surface runoff than average and overall average amounts of snowfall ([source](http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/files/2015/10/GrnToday_SMB_Xavier_Fig5-350x193.png))",
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"text": "have risen over the 1993-2015 record",
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"text": "This statement in the AMS report refers to the satellite altimetry record, which reaches back to 1993. It is also important to remember that it refers to the global average sea level.\n\nWe do have local records of past sea level that extend further back in time, for instance tide gauge records or inferences based upon biological markers. For instance, combined tide gauge records have been used to infer global mean sea level rise (GMSL) over the 20th century and into the 21st century. The obtained estimate of the GMSL rise agrees with the satellite altimetry record in their overlap since 1993 (e.g., Hay et al., 2015: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v517/n7535/abs/nature14093.html).",
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"text": "It should perhaps be specified that the \\"average\\" referred to here is the 1993-2015 average of upper ocean heat content.",
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"text": "Technically correct, in that drought due to lack of rainfall is linked to Indonesian forest fires in some El Nino years.[] (http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/features/201608_heat/)\n\nThe lead sentence for the paragraph implies a link between climate change and the following events, including Indonesian forest fires, which is not established. To the extent climate change might be affecting the frequency and intensity of El Nino events or rainfall patterns during El Nino events, it might then be playing a role, but that is not claimed in this article. For example, Dai (2012)[] (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n1/abs/nclimate1633.html) documents a decreasing observed precipitation trend in Indonesia, but Trenberth, Dai et al (2014) note that \\"it is probably not possible to determine reliable decadal and longer-term trends in drought without first accounting for the effects of ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.\\" [] (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n1/full/nclimate2067.html). Trenberth, Dai et al (2014) also note that drought due to ENSO effects on precipitation may also be exacerbated by the effects of warming on evapotranspiration, which is an area of ongoing study. ",
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"text": "Yes, as the article stated, it has experienced melting over 50+% of the surface. As this comment points out, this amount of the surface experiencing melt is not abnormal. However, if the author of the news article looked more carefully, they would have found other evidence for an anomalously large melt year in Greenland so far (see the NSIDC explanation [here](http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/)).",
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"text": "A side-issue: The figure also shows troposphere temperature derived from a satellite-borne instrument known as the microwave sounding unit (MSU). It shows a higher peak for the 1997-98 El Nino and not as high numbers for 2015. It's interesting looking into the question in which region of the world there is biggest difference between the upper air and surface warming, in addition to asking why. ",
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